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Tomorrow is a clinch point and on my daily I'm seeing a good positive change in direction. The large purchases may have dried up the current block sells for the MM's earlier than was anticipated and is pushing us into oversold territory. Expecting a motor upwards tomorrow in the sp, and possible next few days.
As more interest and buyers come on-board, we might even break a resistance above 3.60 and settle there...pull back a lil and create our next new base!
GLA
Great that the chart is also aligned, but in my books the re rate is also simply a given due to the fact that we are only a few weeks away from a company changing drill with the best CoS around and other deals to come. I’m of the same idea that shortly we will break above the previous 3.6 ish highs and that area will be a new support on a leg towards 5+, time will tell, but next few weeks and months will be fun.
I did say yesterday was the clinch point for the chart, which marked the change in direction up for sp. As far as I can see the next few days, (Monday onward), should see us higher and possibly test new highs and set new base. AIMO, and as always DYOR.
I must say Bladey your chart calls on this stock are generally bang on. V impressed (albeit from a non chartist!). But credit where credits due.
This was and is always going to gain traction as the seller dries up and we get closer to spud.
@Hazdogg, Cheers mate... But I was never initially a believer in the 'Charts system' per se.. especially in the beginning and practically dismissed the practice in dealing with AIM shares in particular...and that was wrong. TBVH, a friend of mine who goes by the name 'Hendi' has way more knowledge in mainstream charting and it was her who steered me into the arena. While she mostly focuses on generic charts, (very deep, I might add), I, myself tend to delve more into the Japanese influences in finance and candlesticks. (very interesting stuff, especially the history aspect).
I should also add how different it is to use a method of charting in AIM and primarily why I didn't really utilise such methods in AIM... The reason is quite simple tbh. AIM is the Index/arena for a company entering into the field of wider finances as fledglings. The tangents being raising of finance, and constant spurts of growth, (as well as the opposite), through regular news as it goes through this growth cycle. These so-called tangents I feel can, and DO, upset the charts as it's unexpected.
I'll give a simple example, (keeping it simple as poss) but tbf it's quite self explanatory... So let's say a company embarking on an exploratory venture for Gold, targeting a certain vein and amount of the metal. Investments are made, (Institutionally and PI's), based on what the company puts out and the growth is aligned with the news, as it heads, timeline-wise, to inception date! Suddenly the company announces the vein is three times as big OR adversely the vein is smaller than they had thought. This in retrospect changes the valuation and direction of the company and the charts have now reset and have to analyse and forward plan with this new information... 'Chart shock' as I like to put it lol ...Anyway there are many more variations in the type of tangents in AIM a fledgling, yet growing company will face.
@Rob, I agree with you and I'm sure we're all aware where the company is heading towards a VERY fruitful future, but I like to use the charts to anticipate where I'm able to purchase more shares when it's SP is aligned with most possible level in it's timeline of growth. Some may say, "Well why the hell don't you just buy in all of what you want at 3p?", Simply put, I don't have all the funds available to buy my Max requirement at any one particular moments because I have the value invested in other stocks which are maturing.. and so as they mature to a peak, (to a degree), I can cash out and keep the cash for buying the next dip in ADV or any other company i'm looking to grow my investment into.
A good example and by example was IAG in which I have a considerable investment... I managed to sell some at the charted peak of £1.77, and buy more ADV at the charted lowest peak...was just good timing tbh and things worked out...If ADV was not at its lowest point on the 'dip', The cash would've been sidelined and I'd wait for the lowest point.
Naturally goes without saying that 'Charting' in itself is only a tool in a chest of tools one should use to make or watch investments, good research, understanding of basic company finances and understanding the sector and direction the company invested in is involved with in terms of future guidance!
GLA
Hi Bladey - a very interesting post. Do you find that the traditional charting methods work only or best in the main market stocks? Alternatively, could it be said that AIM stocks are more conducive to deploying very short term charting and trading methods because of their high volatility (by comparison to the main market). And with this lower timeframe in mind, do the Japanese (and other) methods you refer to work with AIM stocks?
The S/C is a lowly 34M atm I would expect it to be around double that mark by the beginning of November,all things being equal
@LegalWolf, Every stock will have its unique chart pattern, but yes in general AIM stocks are viewed in the shorter term in comparison to the higher tier index's for sure, simply because of what I said in my earlier post that AIM is the make and break of companies to establish themselves. There are sooo many examples out there... Helium one being a classic example, not yet done and dusted but rather now in limbo.
Bladey
I think that might just be the most interesting post I’ve ever read on here. I follow a lot of the Chartists like Wyndrum on here with great interest.
It’s not something I gave great credence to at first as I always thought of myself as a fundamentals investor, sometimes a gambler when I’m taking a punt on something. But have come to realise that you need as many tools in your armoury as possible.
I’m slowly using moving averages, RSI, MACD, etc, to try and time my entry and exit points better.
Watching NZ V SA rugby on catch up, its half time so I thought I would pop in. Its right that you get recognition for your charting work Bladey, as I've said before you've nailed movement almost to the minute. I get that its just a tool amongst other tools/signals/fundamentals but often having the right variation of tools are the making of the job. Thanks for your posts.
Now just have to wait for half time to finish;-)
Thanks for the response Bladey. I always like to hear from chartists as they bring a different perspective and insight. I followed Wyndrum's posts with close interest on the Helium One bb, and thought some of the opposition his TA postings received on that bb were from people who were very ignorant in dismissing the value of something they thought they knew about, but from their postings it was clear that they did not. There were some non-sensical responses and I think Wyndrum made a valiant effort to try to educate others (but many were just not having it).
As for He1, managed to exit that debacle at just the right time but the bb (and seeing hope, fear, greed and cognitive bias/dissonance play out) was a bit of an education.
LW, thanks for your remarks.
And as its a Sunday morning, just a bit of TA musing.
I think one of the biggest aspects of charting that is rarely discussed is when to sell. Its baffling to non TA folk with all the talk of trendlines and indicators etc when saying when to buy and target prices etc etc. Those who don't get peeved by it , are quite attentive just to see if it pans out as forecast. What people are less interested in is when to sell. When to bank that profit.
(I am genuinely delighted that you got out when you did on HE1 by the way)
All TA trades should have a plan based on the charts thus far in front of the individual: you wait for a certain price to hit to time your entry, and also you should have 2 prices for when you sell. the first one being, if the stock falls to a point where you feel the market has proved to you that your initial buy was wrong (your loss) and the target price where you think the SP is going . (your profit.) A popular ratio of this risk is reward is 3 or more. (3-1, doesn't have to be, just seems popular)
So, as a simple example I buy stock A at 30P. I will exit it at a loss if it falls to 27p (potential loss 3p or 10% of my capital)
My target therefore has to be at least 39p (9P gain or 30%) so my risk reward is 3-1, could lose 3p per share but could make 9p). If the chart "says" its only going to 36p then that would be 2-1 and that's not worth the risk to my capital, so I would not enter the trade
Sometimes on well traded stocks with a long(er) history you might be in a position when you have a risk reward or 5 or more. Same example as before, so 27p is the downside risk, but the target (maybe the next resistance point) is 48p and this example now is a 6-1 risk reward ratio (happy days, potentially!!)
The thing is, once the individual has developed a system that is accurate enough for overall profits to be consistently made then it becomes very mechanical. And the biggest side advantage of that, being so mechanical, is that it removes the emotion from the whole exercise.
I have always tried to get this across, but whatever system anyone uses (incl. LTB&H) you should have a plan prior to buying, the entry price and the 2 selling prices. I also have a time limit as well as part of my plan, as the length of time you hold a stock plays a huge part in the individuals over all return. (I would rather have a 50% return in 3 weeks that 100% in 12 months, for instance) but each to his own.
it is fascinating (well it is to me anyway), but as always its down to the individual. I have found not found a system yet that is full proof, but this works better than any other method and I think I have tried them all over the last 40 years!
GL
@Wyndrum, I totally agree with you mate, but it's a hard concept for people to follow, especially when they're led by others ramping away. Noob investors put on blinders and are not interested in logic... dreaming of riches, private yachts and properties in the Maldives lol.
When people like you or myself put out logical advice...even as simple as, "Always bank profit", you get labelled a de-ramper and mob tactics are deployed... Hence I no longer bother with it. Best time to give such advice is now, well before the company, (this or any other), is burning in the spotlight!
Crossing that line becomes less investing and rather more of a gamble. Over the years, I've literally witnessed so many individuals crying about how much they've lost because they've listened to rampers, or a group of rampers, (who incidentally couldn't give two f**ks about the next man), who'll have an exit plan and leave the 'less experienced' holding the baby, as the term goes.
Good Research....Entry points, exit points... It's just good business sense to have a plan.. and furthermore it leaves with plenty more time to research others you can add to the portfolio.
s.t. fully agree ,as usual.
@ST
"Once drilling commences, we expect to reach the target in around 35 days and, given our modelled economics, this well has the potential to be value transforming for Carnarvon."
When does drilling part? Is that the part where it says 'on schedule to spud in early November'?
Cheers for any help.
We have a August high of 3.74 that i would like to see broken, a 3.6p close would also break our highest close which was 3.58 also back in August.
We have lift off. Can see this 4p+ this week then onward and upward!
breaking resistance,at last
3.9 just paid for 1.2M
Didn't take a lot to move it today.
I'm thinking the placing shares have all been flipped.
The shares at this price will be in very sticky hands.
I cant see anyone selling knowing spud is getting increasingly closer.
We will now see significant buying pressure and SP increase
@Sundayroast, ... can't really say that, but we should set higher lows further forward. I haven't had the time to watch full volume of shares per day, although there maybe some here who have been watching and can answer that...it's a tedious job watching and totalling daily volumes.
My calcs of three weeks ago had today as the day I expected to see the placing shares all but come to an end so I'm not gonna argue with SundayRoast's thinking.