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Barchid,
You might not think it's revelent, when Cedar Fair has released record performance figures it has an impact on ACSO revenues.! Which is also up 7.7%
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191106005215/en/Cedar-Fair-Announces-2019-Third-Quarter-Results-Reports
Gossip:- Accesso's former CEO, Tom Burnet, has just been promoted from NED to Chairman at Kainos (LON:KNOS) - which makes me wonder if maybe his interest in ACSO might be waning?
Greg
I think we have done what research can be done, like the stonking remuneration our BOD receive, anything else, until they give us concrete information, is surely guesswork, not research ?
One thing that keeps bothering me though, is why this due diligence should be taking so long.
Hi Guys,
Do some research and you'll see some of our customers have had a good H2 so far, which in turn should relate to ACSO.
That's why this is in the RNS:
". The interested parties remain engaged in financial and operational due diligence."
Risky
I suspect that you are spot on with the rns, I sincerely hope you're also correct on price predictions, but if we're not close to the bottom by now there has to be something very wrong somewhere !
The rns reads as the bod are upset that the sp is so low they are feeling huge pressure to accept an offer which now looks reasonable. They are hoping the rns will lift the sp. I think they are in denial as to the companys true worth.
Barchid
Such is my poor view of the whole process I expected the RNS to read that the parties had terminated discussions - Putting on the Behavioral economics hat, maybe we've hit rock bottom!
Well you have to be in it to win it don't you ?
And please remember that it is us shareholders who provide the pay for the BoD, which for 2018 was a "mere" $1,791,000, Tom Burnet on $609K & John Alder struggling along with a mere $500K as 2 examples. For that money I would have expected a bit better effort in communications from the BoD, I am surprised you appear content with them ?
You keep slating the BOD but some of them are sitting on £30K losses.
Another day and another hefty markdown (5.8%) on the price, yet still no communications from the BoD.
Most odd.
Barchid
I am with you on this. I cannot remember a stock where Director silence is Golden, usually it smells of problems ahead. I hope I am wrong but resigning myself to the long haul.
Risky
You encapsulate my own opinion perfectly !
PE the most likely source of bidding & why not already happening?
Another dismal opening in an otherwise up market today just to put the icing on the cake.....
Hi Barchid
I agree, if a bid is to emerge you feel it will be from PE. It should be right up their street as high Capex is much better done under PE than a quoted company. However as you have intimated previously, where are the bids , is there a problem. For what it's worth, I think the problem is that this was seen as an acquisition led growth business but BoD execution here has been woeful . Ingresso looks like a pup and if the other acquisitions are not delivering then the re-rating is obvious, as the market is taking the view that this isn't a world class tech company, merely a quoted business that buy mediocre/poor bolt ons at inflated prices. PE would put a stop to that but at what price do they want to buy it at given it's capex needs - 20x PE 30 .. 40. If this years estimates are to be believed of consensus 32.9p EPS that would be a 658p price target on 20x. Admittedly Sophos have been taken out on 45-50x next years EPS which gives us hope, and this is why the Accesso SP popped up to £13.75 on news - the possibility of a high PE take out. However after the BoD presentations there is a deathly quiet which is a concern to say the least !
Hi Barchid,
Agree, and I doubt that the companies involved hold any shares in ACSO. I believe them to be PE companies, for the above reason. As Risky says, they can offer whatever they like and the BOD doesn't have to accept any of them.
At this time, there is no increase in short selling, therefore the company is currently oversold.
To have a number of interested parties in ACSO, there must be potential profits that these interested parties see.
I expect the shareprice decent to level off and increase to a higher level as we await news. Always a good buying price for prospective investors.
Good Luck All Shareholders
Greg
I accept that but is there anyone with a stake of over 10% anyway ?
As far as I can see the largest holders (all under 10%) are fund management houses, very unlikely to want to make a bid. Over 50% of the shares are held by the top 10 fund managers according to FT website.
Therefore, an interest with 10%+ of the voting rights, could make a cash offer at the highest paid by the offerer in the last 12months, but this is likely be rejected by the BOD as it is below the latest BOD buys. (As seen with the offers of interest so far). The falling 52wk high, will therefore be the benchmark for any acceptable bids.
Hi Guys,
No he is confused between 30% of voting rights and 10%
From the takeover code:
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least.
Risky
Thanks for your clarification I always thought that was the case but could not check it immediately as the takeover code is not exactly a short document !
I have often posted about the apparent non existence of any serious buyer so it really makes one wonder what really is going on in that boardroom.
Greg
As wonderful as your view of the takeover code is for long suffering shareholders! It is wrong if you are talking about the 12 month high for the share price. The takeover code refers to the price paid buy the bidder over the last 12 months, not the price paid by any hapless investor.
Hence a bidder can offer what they like so long as they haven't bought any stock.
Sorry to pop your optimism!
There are lots of examples currently not least carpetright - 12m high of 35p and offer of 5p, many others to refer to.
December 11th the 52wk high, will be 1190p it won't go lower after that until February . If there's going to be an official offer then 11/12/2019 would be favourite IMO
Good Luck All Shareholders
Hi Barchid,
From 24th July RNS
"following the receipt of approaches from a number of parties regarding a potential sale of the Company, it has decided to conduct a formal sale process under The City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Code"). The Board of accesso has determined that this is the most appropriate mechanism,"
The BOD are fully aware of the clock running down, as far as the 52wk high goes, the more protracted the "talks" go on for the lower the 52wk high is , thus weakening the bod's hand for a higher offer.
Good Luck All Shareholders
Greg
If the BoD were playing the takeover code, something which has been mooted before here, why would they have set the deadline for indications of interest to be submitted by Sep 30 ? They can read the daily price chart as well as we can so why fix a date when the 12 month price was so much higher, perhaps I can not see the wood from the trees but I see no reason why that date would have been selected when the 12 month high was then 2920 ?
Could you perhaps chop a few pieces of wood away so I can see the trees, as at present it looks to me like there is no one quietly building a stake, which one might expect when over 50% of the stock is owned by 10 investment managers (according to the FT) ?
*845p
Hi Guys,
Taverham or is it Thorpe Marriott I can never tell lol.
It looks to me like you lot can't see the woood for the trees.
The BOD are using the takeover code for the sale of ACSO. At the beginning, the 52wk high was 2850p, which according to the code would be the offer price. The longer the process goes (without an official offer) the lower the 52wk high will be, currently 1875p.
Latest Director's buy 8450p , between this price and the lowering 52wk high will be an official offer for the company, in line with the takeover code.
Good Luck All Shareholders
Barchid, I agree entirely. With no information as to what is happening with the company there is absolutely no reason why anybody should buy and hence the continual slide. We used to get fairly frequent updates on new wins. Nothing for months. Does this mean no new business wins. What is the company actually doing?