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Having seen Charles Stanley's new forecasts after this week's results I've sold all of my shares. Today's 2,500 was the last tranche. They're going for 10.51p EPS this year and 11.26p EPS next year. And they've downgraded to Hold From Add, with only a 175p target. At 190p that leaves ABDP on a pretty expensive rating for a company which is hardly going to increase EPS at all over the next two years. And you can't strip the cash out of the rating since it's needed to fund new offices etc - with the factory not due to open until 2015 (assuming it gets planning permission that is). It's been a great ride from 110p or so in a short time, and ABDP is a quality company, but I think upside here is limited to say 10%, whereas the shares could stagnate or drift downwards for some time given the limited growth. Shares Mag have a summary here, concluding with the Charles Stanley downgrade: hTTp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/ab-dynamics-motors-up#.UnyhyOhFCUk Conclusion: "House broker Charles Stanley heralds a ‘strong maiden result’ but moves from add to hold with a price target of 175p. It comments: ‘The shares have performed strongly and it would seem sensible to anticipate a period of consolidation.’"
New highs now before the maiden post-IPO finals to be released on 7th November. And good news today. Miton Group have increased their stake from 1.834m shares in their last holdings RNS to 2.009m shares, or just over 12.3% - so they've bought another 175,000 or so shares. Quite a vote of confidence in a small cap company: http://www.investegate.co.uk/ab-dynamics-plc/rns/holding-s--in-company/201310311305498869R/
Encouraging to see the price ticking up already today on a buy of just 755 shares!
And here's a good local article, noting that the factory is "choc a bloc"! This quote says it all re the 31st August year end... ""We close the books at the end of this month and figures are pretty much where we thought they would be": hxxp://www.thisisbath.co.uk/Automotive-firm-grows-meet-rising-demand/story-19756351-detail/story.html#axzz2gfTC5zeO "Automotive firm grows to meet rising demand Friday, September 06, 2013 A new £500,000 facility has been opened in Bradford on Avon to help an automotive firm meet demand as orders soar. Engineering firm Anthony Best Dynamics (ABD) has officially opened its new factory extension despite plans to move to larger facilities in two years' time. The company, which provides international car manufacturers with testing and measurement products for vehicle suspension, brakes and steering, plans to move to the new Kingston Farm development in Bradford in Avon by 2015 where it hopes to double its workforce. However, managing director Tim Rogers said demand was so high for its products that the company had no choice but to expand or risk losing key contracts. "We are looking to build a new factory up the road in two years time but it's been important to get some new facilities up and running. "It's a new annexe but we've built it to quite a high standard. We've done this to let the staff know we are developing the product, let the community know we are committed to the area and let our investors know we are improving our capacity. "At the moment the factory is absolutely choc-a-bloc." Earlier this year ABD launched on the London Stock Exchange to raise the £2.5 million needed for its expansion. The money will be used to fund the new factory, further recruitment and establishing a presence in Asia. Mr Rogers added: "We close the books at the end of this month and figures are pretty much where we thought they would be. The automotive market has started to spend and open up, particularly in areas such as Japan and China where key customers are." "We are now above where we were before the downturn." "We don't want to be in a position where we have to turn down orders."
Moving up nicely now to new highs before the imminent year end trading statement - an excellent sign. Given that this is a new IPO, one would expect the maiden results to be good.
There's news on the web site of further "significant" sales which appear to be in addition to the recently announced contract wins: hxxp://www.abd.uk.com/en/News "19 August 2013 - ADAS robot sales to NHTSA and CSI spa ABD is pleased to announce two significant robot sales, to CSI spa in Italy and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the USA. CSI spa is the only EuroNCAP-accredited laboratory in Italy and has been using ABD's SR60 steering robot for sine-dwell testing for more than a year. In order to widen its track-testing capabilities to include the new EuroNCAP Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) procedure, a significant expansion of its driving robot capabilities was required, and CSI spa chose an ABD Torus steering robot and two CBAR pedal robot systems, together with the OxTS RT-Range system. This substantial order will give CSI the ability to control and synchronise multiple vehicles with exceptional accuracy, necessary to perform the AEB test procedures for City and Inter-Urban systems, as well as testing other ADAS technology. Its new Torus steering robot will also enable CSI to perform sine-dwell, fishhook and other steering tests in a wide range of vehicles without the need to remove or disable the steering wheel airbag. The NHTSA is an agency of the US Department of Transportation and is one of the biggest driving forces globally for the improvements in road safety. It has purchased an ABD Combined Brake and Accelerator Robot (CBAR) for use in its ongoing development of test methodologies for assessing ADAS technology. In developing procedures for testing Dynamic Brake Support and Collision-Imminent Braking, the NHTSA required a device which could control the speed of any vehicle and then apply accurate and repeatable brake inputs. ABD's CBAR was developed to be the perfect tool for vehicle speed control and brake inputs, and has been purchased by customers worldwide for ADAS testing, including numerous OEMs, the Transportation Research Centerm Inc. in the USA and the majority of the EuroNCAP test laboratories. ABD is delighted to be working closely with organisations such as the NHTSA, CSI spa and the other EuroNCAP test laboratories that are driving forward safety for road-users worldwide."
I've been buying these in my ISA. Excellent contract news recently, but also looks cheap given that the year end is just coming up - 31st August - and ABDP are looking good to meet expectations of 9.89p EPS. There's a slight reduction in EPS this coming year to 9.62p EPS given the (small) IPO dilution, but with recent contract wins I'd hope for upgrades from Charles Stanley once the results are out. It's also good to see ABDP are forecast to have £4.3m net cash at the end of this month, against the £18.9m m/cap. Strip out the cash, and ABDP will soon be on a historic P/E net of cash of probably only 9 or 10. Which strikes me as rather undercooked for a world leader in its global and growing field. We should get a 31st August year end trading statement soon which, given recent news flow, and that ABDP floated so far into its year, should be good news imho. It's also interesting that over 86% of the shares are held by directors and major shareholders. Any sort of demand for the shares could result in a nice squeeze (perhaps borne out by today's rise on small volumes).
86p not bad price at present then, even though its slipped back a bit. good luck.
No Charles Stanley and the IPO price was 86.3p feel the share price has got a bit ahead of itself and imagine it will settle at about a 100p
Was it City Equities by any chance? Was final float price £1.16? Will keep it on my watch list? Good luck with it.
My broker also contacted me pre float, I found the business area interesting so sunk a few pennies in here. I think its a fairly safe bet short term 1-2 years but will have to see how they manage to innovate long term. As you say small company but they seem to have an excellent reputation amongst the big car companies.
a broker asked me if I was interested pre float. thought the company were too small/high risk. what is your view?
Morning morning. Anyone else own any if these beauties yet?