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I dont understand the comment in the FT that they dont have scope to go higher. They are paying in paper and BHP only has debt of $12B. They are not burdened by gearing.
The parts of the business they dont want are traded o the JoBurg stock exchange - so the implicit valuation was not a figment of the imagination.
IMHO they will definitely make a formal bid before the 22nd May deadline, if only to extend the process. If they dont make a bid, they wont be able to come back for another year.
In that time period someone else could come in for Anglo and they would miss the chance of getting those copper assets.
Is for the same reasoning that one of their rivals will also make a pitch, I think.
I can understand disputes about price, but if you are sceptical about South Africa exposure and the other parts of the business (am a massive fan of the POLY4 project), I would question why you are in this share at all.
Growup it's fine we get your drift I agree as well , I don't want to but I will exit at anything above 29£ now because no-one will really want to carry the bad bits right now, only just copper.
Re my last post I should have checked the numbers in the BHP 16.04.24 proposal first. That proposal amounted to roughly £16.82 worth of BHP shares per AAL.L share for the assets they would acquire (not around £14 which I said below), then attributed £8.26 of total value to the Kumba and Amplats assets that they would require AAL.L to hive off and dump in your lap first.
I would a final offer of £29 to shareholders and a few sweeteners for the South African government in the way of jobs, building infastructure, hospitals, schools, etc
Glencore jumped through the same hoops when agreeing to buy EVR from TECK, the list of demands looked like a shopping list!!!!
Anyone expecting £40 is in my view dreaming, sorry. As I posted earlier this week the sp in early 2022 was an absolute bubble number, underpinned by extraordinary "dislocation" commodity prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. £35 was an outstanding exit point then given the long term sp history. It is now very clear that the sp at that point masked serious deficiencies in the company which have also got materially worse while commodity prices have retreated, culminating in the shocking 20% fall in the sp a single day last December when AAL.L made the appalling announcement it did then about reducing output and capex. Hence why it is now a sitting duck for a predatory takeover.
Further, note this from the FT yesterday - "BHP is unlikely to radically increase its offer in its formal bid, which is due by May 22 ... and it has limited room to go higher, according to a person familiar with the company’s thinking."
Ouch. So it now seems this is likely to be a slow-drip charade starting with another lowball number in a formal bid, then limited if any eventual upside from there
So in the end we arrive very possibly it now seems at limited upside from the roughly £25 implied by the BHP's first informal offer. Which would not have involved you getting anything like £25 a share from BHP in any event. BHP's proposal is not a takeover offer, it is an offer for certain AAL.L assets. For which they are offering a share swap which works out at around $14 per share for those assets (as I recall when you broke down the numbers). The £25 figure came from BHP putting it about that the residual bag of sh*t they would leave behind (mainly Kumba and Amplats) would supposedly make you up to around £25.
BS - there is no way to know what those residual assets would trade at if listed on their own, especially as they may well end up listed only in SA. In short, good luck with those ever trading at the prices that BHP has attributed to them, or with ever selling them even if they did.
Taking all this together my view is that if £30 hits the table from BHP sell on market immediately and run. Brace yourself for even less.
A little friendly cooperation rather than a takeover would have been order of the day to elevate both AAL and BHP.
It was indeed £41.48 however, shareholders are never keen on capital expenditure as it reduces the yield.
Woodsmith was always going to be expensive but the rewards are high. Unfortunately, the dividend and therefore the share price takes a hit. Personally, I think Woodsmith could have been completed for less money and opened sooner. But then, I’ve never dug down more than 1.5 metres :) .
Cost of living crisis and all that though :)))
Sp might rally in to the close for a monday rns ( next week might be fireworks !! )
Anglo was priced at £41.48 in april 2022.
chisler
Yes seems a bit strong to me , we might get lucky at £32 though but cant see it myself....
1.3b shares at an extra £15 a share? That’s a lot.# hoping:)
Shareholders wont accept anything less than £40
chisler
Who's gonna call the next offer then ????I'm putting my neck out and saying £31 PER SHARE LAST & FINAL OFFER......ANYBODY ELSE????? GLA !
On Wednesday was unable to buy 1000 shares at 26.50 even when price hit that level. Can find no reason from aj bell. Odd.
Yes they are...might get a better £30 + bid as well from them.....crossed fingers !!
Let's hope so, they are a better bet
Glencore up 3% maybe they are next in the ring ??!!!!!
So somebody else must have done a massive 41 million buy ... ?
Maybe a big spike in to the closing bell with an aftermarket RNS or one first thing in the morning..who knows , but time is slowly running out and someone will have to make a bid soon if they want to put a rival bid in !!!!
The bid needs to be £30 minimum to be accepted I think...anything less will be a no no .....
….although BHP’s sp hasn’t budged, so maybe not. (Glencore is up too).
I wonder if the cat is out of the bag re BHP’s revised offer. 28p?
Yes you're right half asleep that time in the morrning ......