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Woodsmith is pretty irrelevant to the valuation. Plenty of value to realise without it. At least 4000/ps
I agree that it has taken BHP's approach to wake Anglo's Board and management from their inbred complacency. The result is the self break up of the rambling empire, leaving a core that will be an easier and compelling takeover target for BHP, Rio or Glencore. There is a lot of value that will be released from this, including on the spun off Southern African assets removed from Anglo's dead hand. Target value > 4000.
If there were no market, they wouldn’t have bought it in the first place.
But presumably there is no market for the product, otherwise they would not mothball the mine.
Yes, they ought to be throwing everything but the kitchen sink at getting Woodsmith completed and operating. They will get chump change if they dispose of it now, versus a one century money spinner, if they get it finished.
Yes, grim. "We think it might be worth something sometime, but not now, so we are hanging onto the mine and hoping someone else will buy it later".
Another dead mine with no prospects. Time to sell AAL?
The near term future for metals is all about Copper for the electrification we know about and the massive new demand from the AI newcomers. AAL has probably the twi best copper mines in the World and it is easier/quicker to acquire mines rather than explore/develop them -as you all know. That makes AAL a prime target. The Board of AAL must have been woken up after years of coasting along by BHPs approach which was never going to succeed since it would cost AAL perhaps $2bn dollars just to demerge the bits BHP don't want. AAL should now realise they must pull their finger out and increase valuation of their widespread, enormous assets and keep investors onside.
The whole scenario looks grim to me, I hope the previous posters are right and we get other parties interest, I only became an AAL investor due to the potential of Poly4 and now that appears a waste of time. Production was planned for 2026, now who knows when that milestone will be reached
Sounds like mothballing to me.
Until it’s in production, I think it’s just a burden. I would have thought making it productive would have been a priority.
OR
BHP have to put up or shut by the 22nd. Given the underwhelming reaction to Anglo's self help, there is no need to up their offer. Unlikely anybody else will have a punt unless some cash is offerred.
Don't overlook Chinese interest. World largest steel producer with an insatiable appetite for iron ore and coking coal, major interest in copper. Could well see a bid from there.
Let's hope so, I'm not keen on the AAL plans put forward essentially the Woodsmith proposal. We need GC and RT to step up and sharpish
Theres still Glencore or Rio Tinto who might see this as an opportunity !......
As a relative newbie, does this signal that AAL wouldn't be interested in any takeover deal and would rather go it alone? TIA
· Crop nutrients
o Slow down development to support balance sheet deleveraging, while critical technical studies are completed in 2025, to then support syndication. Capex reduced to $200 million in 2025 and no capex in 2026
o Preserving long term value from high quality asset with multi-generational resource scale
The BHP bid has woken AAL up. This RNS
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/anglo-american-accelerates-delivery-of-strategy/16467967
Sets out a plan to significantly downsize the company, key elements are
Divest steel-making coal, mothball nickel , demerge Amplats and De beers and mothball Woodsmith.
The impact on the SP is highly unpredictable , BUT the markets might think , that despite AAL's rejection of the BHP bid they are in effect doing exactly what BHP has specified. Not willing to marry but buying the dress???
I suspect one more offer will be tabled, but based on how quickly the last one was dismissed, it would appear that both companies valuation of AAL are too far apart to reach an agreement.....and is there any pressure on the board to sell out????
I'm surprised that BHP didn't approach TECK as their portfolio of assets is more suited to what BHP are after, but the TECK share price has risen lately, so that makes the AAL offer even more opportunistic....
I am also only here because of Woodsmith. It’s not that I want to make good money (although, that would be nice).it’s more that I want to be part of the story.
When I die, the kids will be gifted a couple of hundred shares each with a request not to sell them. They’ll also get a house each and a bit of cash. I hope i live long enough to see that my faith in Woodsmith is justified !eek!
OR
Glencore might make their move, now that BHP have had a couple of goes. I agree that it doesn’t really matter if the bidding dries up. I think that the diversity of Anglo’s interests, which are currently viewed as a liability, will turn out to be its strength in years to come. People are just too impatient these days.
It does not really matter to us share holders. We are sitting on a good thing that will pay big dividends in the long term. To actually be involved in the largest supple of POLY 4 in the world is a remarkable achievement, irrespective of who owns it.
I thought that China would jump in to grab it at a basic price to help cultivate barren areas of their country. It would have saved them paying world market prices for an essential commodity.
Still the game is not over yet!
There will benother interested parties now that Anglo are firmly 'in play'. The Chinese are particularly keen on buying up commodity assets.
I see they are going to release a detailed Investor update tomorrow on their own vision for the company. Could be good?
I'm thinking £29. Which is likely to be rejected.