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The Lachlan Transfer Zone is shown on page 4
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushranger-Summary-Presentation_April-2020.pdf
It appears to be more commonly referred to as the Lachlan Transverse Zone.
Thanks captainbob that is my understanding too that we will not be going through the rigmarole of feasibility studies. They can take a LONG time!
Many thanks for the info captainbob
More than happy to be wrong on this occasion, with colins confidence in a feasibility study not being necessary toward a sale and with that āif we are still the ownersā comment, it seems apparent to me he has been in contact with our buy-back partners :))
At AGM he again talked about extension to 2024, and beyond being possible with comment if of course we are still the owners, he has also said on a couple of occasions that PFS/DFS is not a prerequisite to a sale.
Ah yes Andrew my apologies that was my reference. I did trawl through the Steveās posts quickly to find it as was sure was one of theirs.
We all make mistakesā¦. Said the dalek climbing off the dustbin
Howzap
I don't know if this is what you were referring to? I did this a while ago Someone else may have also referenced it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Northparks / Cadia Corridoor31 Oct 2021 21:49
This isnt very scientific and yes I was getting bored, but I had a look at location of Northparks / cadia / Racecourse on a map. If you draw a line direct from Northparks mine to Cadia mine and extend it on in dead straight line (about same distance again) it takes you a few kms to the west of Blacksprings . Exactly over Racecourse. Not just near Racecourse but right over the area.
Meaningless coincidence or proof of significant porphyry corridor??
An even better omen is to continue that straight line from racecourse, through cadia a further 111km and you hit northparks mine
Courtesy of one of the Steveās I think
If draw a line from the top of the dinos head from BR in a straight line for 73k you hit Cadia .
good omen https://earth.google.com/web/@-33.86537888,149.69933486,1163.11015652a,14649.07793063d,35y,-0h,0t,0r
Fair enough joeman .. you could easily be right
Generally, everyone has their own opinion here .. and there are lots of permutations, for sure.. and anyone can be right on their view at any given time in this game..
(In defence of my view I offer that the market is currently valuing bushranger at somewhere between 1.5p and 3p - Africa assets the balance - imho.. and that's a long, long, long way from the 15p or 20p or 30p.. or more again.. talked about sale value here of Bushranger in midish 2022 for eg.. I know the market can be slow to get it sometimes.. and 'it's AIM' .. but still ? :-))
Dibs yes they do take time but will be essential I believe with a tier 1 asset.
Not heard cb verbally mention but in the drilling license update on 13th Oct it quotes
>> It is also comforting to have the exploration licence extension until June 2024. This is a significant amount of time for us to continue our exploration and feasibility study programmes, and take the project to the next stages."
howezap - when you say an āappropriateā feasibility study what do you mean? A PFS I assume. The thing is a PFS is going to be expensive and drawn out. I havenāt heard Colin mention such a strategy and therefore I presume he doesnāt think it should necessary to attract an offer. The impression he has given me is we just need to firm up the resource.
Would add that having an appropriate feasibility study in place for the open pit would give serious kudos and help underpin a value that potential big investors can attribute to. These big boys want something set in stone, having an revised JORC will go a long way, but a feasibility study will confirm project viability. It will be when they arrive that we will see the biggest gains going into the latter exploration phases.
IMO
IWTW
To avoid confusion, I didnāt make a judgment on your valuation, I just gave my own. You could be right.
The 25p I mentioned was to illustrate that even CB doesnāt think 3% buy-out is realistic as his 25p to 30p would be less than 2% buy-out. I think that is a view you also hold from reading your other post. I'm now using 1.75% and you thought half of the 3% quoted (1.5%), so we are not too far out with our opinion on buy-out%
One point you made in your last post that I would disagree with is the $7K POC The margin that the buyer wants is in the buy out % (imo). At 2% buy-out they are getting the other 98% of cont copper. Thatās where they get the profit.
One factor the independent valuers will take into account is the future anticipated POC. I think it more likely that POC over next 10 to 20 years will be going up not down so I think it highly unlikely the buy-out will be at a much lower POC than current.
Of course AIMO
Dibs and Andrew - my 15p+ figure was for BR alone (not African assets), and 2mt alone (not 2.2). I also allowed for $7000 POC because I donāt believe any buyer would pay near current spot price for an asset that will be mined fir 29 years - theyād want to see a margin (just my opinion). So fine, we can all use our own assumptions. Iām probably being a little cautious but I donāt think overly so. As for CB saying heād want at least 25p, well, maybe but that could well have been just a throwaway comment. Look, I want the high figures as much as anyone, Iām just putting forward what I think is a realistic view! The copper report certainly does have much higher valued companies than $50m, for sure, but I suspect they have significant other assets whilst those valued at $50m donāt. Happy to be corrected, I didnāt give it a very thorough read.
I don't disagree NtM, but I feel that would require the BR 2mt Cu Anglo clause to fall a certain way. Plus, whoever buys BR will (i imagine) want the adjacent copper too... they wouldn't want a competitor just over the fence (imo).
I think more likely one big drilling campaign (like the one we are just concluding) to start early in 2022 and timed to take place over 6 months, to keep the true value target moving upwards just at the point where AA (or someone else) starts to open negotiations. They then need to offer higher to buy something that can be making jumps in value every couple of weeks....
It will be easy to challenge/refuse a low ball offer if there is a constant stream of positive drill and assay results coming in.
If its my scenario, the jumps in shareprice will happen before the summer.
Cygnus
The outer margins would still need to be delineated, or any further targets adjacent defined. I just feel the open pit and itās associated future production facility positioning, would conclude that parcel of asset, as they could then conclude their feasibility study programme. Before, further drilling to the SE, if that is not viable to be included into a, āpotentialā pit extension, and is either a separate pit or to be cave mined. Hence further recon holes to determine. Is a methodical approach to proving up Racecourse. Not to necessarily increase the level of geological confidence. It certainly would not mean any offers would come in, CB has made it very clear any sale would have to include any other targets including footrot.
It will be so much clearer once the revised resource model is released and the conclusion of the remaining assays.
If CB can spend something - very broadly- along the lines of 5m gbp to prove up - in his mind - another - very broadly - along the lines of 50m gbp Bushranger assets sell on value, then I would foresee him doing that again and again and again.... especially if he's got African assets earnings to invest in any such ongoing Bushranger - Racecourse and potentially beyond - resource prove out..
Given the potential resource that now seems to be discoverable in Bushranger, my guess is a minimum of two more drilling campaigns after this one ahead of any asset sale here... and 2023 as considerably more likely than 2022 as Bushranger Assets sell on year ....
(And I see good but not amazing s/p growth here in 2022 and and very good s/p growth from there in early/mid 2023 here .. with a few punchy spikes/retraces thrown in along the road for some range trading fun too.... )
Howezap,
I'd be surprised if the next drilling campaign concentrated on the existing/enlarged pit. That may be a way to prove up the resource to a high level of JORC and hence get a good price but in the longer term exploring a potentially much larger resource, albeit to a lower level of JORC would seem to me to be the way to go. Otherwise CB could sell off BR without accounting for the SE (SW?) potential. Just leaving it to the new owner to explore and exploit.
Either that or I'm missing something. Interested to hear any counter arguments although I think we've over this discussion before.
Would agree with robsaunders, and I could add, the extent of the viable to mine ore around the open pit boundaries would need to be defined as to determine potential location of production facilities before any of the feasibility study programmes can complete anyway. Any offers would be subject to feasibility.
I go back to my previous assumption that the next drilling campaign will concentrate mainly in and around the conceptual pit. No doubt will be further recon holes into the SE too. Still a way off yet but trying to understanding the bigger picture is interesting.
CB said 25p to 30p for current open pit. So assuming 2.2mt and $9000 POC
25p = 1.68% and 30p = 2%. These buy out figures are way off a 3% valuation.
Looking at other sales they seem to be a lot less than 3% as well.
Maybe 1.75% is more realistic than Cornfordās 3%? I think I will now be using 1.75%. (1.5% to 2% lower and higher bands)
Assuming 1.75% $9000 POC and 1billion shares fully diluted
2mt = 23.5p
3mt= 35p
4mt = 47p
(Excluding African assets ā maybe 5p extra?)
So 40p within a year (inc SE + footrot) does still seem possible and realistic imo
Some may think this is conservative or even pessimistic, but I will be using 1.75% buy out from now on in my calcs and hopefully Iāll be pleasantly surprised !
No offers will be forthcoming until the company completes the drilling programme
CB has gone this far and got bonanza amounts of metals
The drilling campaign will go through to the summer of 2022 and probably beyond as the areas keep getting longer and longer
In for the long haul, but this time CB will optimise the investment
Does not a company's MktCap only become relevant to how much a resource is worth if they only have that one resource and project ? Surely their MktCap would reflect all their operations ?
Likewise XTR's MktCap would (or should) reflect all its Mozambique, Zambia and Bushranger projects ?
So I'm not sure how relevant other company's MktCaps are to the Bushranger value question as we don't necessarily know what the makeup of those MktCaps are ?
IWantThatOne - so basically you are saying the Racecourse deposit is worth barely Ā£120m given current MC (Ā£40m) and even that would then mean valuing ALL their other assets at zero.
No. Look Iām prepared to accept an offer which CB accepts as I believe he has the best idea of what itās worth. So if CB, hypothetically, accepted an offer valuing Bushranger or Racecourse at say 25p, Iād take it. CB has already laughed 10p out the house. Iād like to know what he thinks of your 15p!!
>> Also I noted in andmillsyās report that those copper explorers with 2mT were only valued around $50m on average
Are we reading the same report? Oroco Resource Corp with 2.3m is $397m market cap, Polymet mining with 2.8m is $309m, Trilogy metals with 1.8m is $273m, etc. There are also some of the lower end with Deep South resources on 2.4m tons and only $8m market cap. It looks a very wide range of values, so obviously there is no direct correlation between contained resources and market cap.
It will depend on a lot of other factors, such as cost of extraction, infrastructure requirements, quality of jurisdiction, etc. and Bushranger is very well placed for all those factors.
Andrew, theiceberg has already said that indicated and inferred resources would only attract half that 3% valuation, so thatās what Iām expecting. The alternative of doing a full DFS and upgrading the resource probably wouldnāt make financial sense, given the cost. Also I noted in andmillsyās report that those copper explorers with 2mT were only valued around $50m on average (albeit with lots of caveats around those figures). I think 2mt here is still worth 15p+ but it would be much better (obvs) if the SE comes up trumps too.