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Timing of any equity raise *if it happens* will reveal a lot.
If we raise equity at depressed SP and before revealing what we have at RC, then this suggests to me that revealing RC would have put the SP in an even worse position. If RC is "in the bag" or even close to that and we need equity for further drilling and can't wait for Manica then I would hope CB would reveal as much as he can prior to raising any equity on the expectation that the reveal would get it off at a higher price.
'. I would be very surprised if it is significantly lower than what he has implied' - But would you really be surprised??
2MT aside, and based off his later comments re: a min of 500e6t that should give 1.5e6t cu @ .3%. ~680 would get us over the 2Mt line.
I've said a few times now that, despite what Bird has said, I don't think we are at 2Mt cu. My concern ATM is based on the volume of earth and the lower than expected grades is that we may struggle with RC being economic? As we all know it's scattered over a very large area and the grades in some parts are only just commercial.
In his last interview he stated ~1600m*600m*150m (not sure he meant to say 150m as that doesn't add up or did I mishear?)
Hopefully not to long to wait anyway, we were told 2 more 'infil drills' which will hopefully do the trick and certainly shouldn't be the death of 1e9 lashes...
"My belief is firmly that attention is turning from RC to Ascot/Footrot because RC has not lived to the lofty expectations CB set for it."
At some point within the next 6 months, hopefully sooner, CB will have to reveal what the resource value is at RC. I would be very surprised if it is significantly lower than what he has implied as he would have had some idea of how things were progressing when he made his statements.
I would be surprised if its less than 1.5mt. Add Manica to that and we should be in the low teens worst case??
We are all a bit anxious…. But the way I look at it is -
1. Empress revenue will flow by July, with increasing throughput as the plant settles in Aug.
This alone will support the current share price.
2. Even if RC didn’t come in at 2Mt, and was a bit short, it’s still a massive ore body, so AA could still buy it. If they didn’t, I’m pretty sure others would be interested (Chinese?).
So, to me, there appears to be very little downside risk to this share now, with a lot of potential upside. How much? Nobody knows for sure, but once news comes out, it will start to fly. Any short term fall is just due to MM shenanigans- they only make money when there is volume, and any dearth of news just gives them the opportunity to adjust the price in an attempt to create a market. That said, of course I’m frustrated. But am I worried - no, I’m not.
CB is the direct source of frustration. He was incredibly vocal about the 2MT being hit and about timelines for declaring either that or decision to mine. An equity raise anywhere near the current SP would be horrible, and would make little sense if the revenue projections for Manica are accurate.
Taking CBs comments at end 2021 and even in Q1 of this year at face value and this share was a screaming buy, even in the 6-7p range. I know CB already holds a substantial number of shares here, but I would have liked to see him back up his statements with purchases. The comments he made on XTR are more bullish than any other share in his stable imo, yet we saw directors dealings in some of the others but not XTR.
I can see others here are clinging onto the idea that all IS on track and that CB is holding it up his sleeve in order to not have to sell too cheaply but I'm not buying that. My belief is firmly that attention is turning from RC to Ascot/Footrot because RC has not lived to the lofty expectations CB set for it.
If RC really was "in the bag" then I don't see why we wouldn't want to do a deal for that with a contingent component tied to Ascot/Footrot success, which could be funded by sale proceeds.
The statement "why sell now and be kicking ourselves if it turns out to be worth more later" can be made for almost any asset sale and is a convenient way of kicking the can down the road. I can easily make the case that I am prepared to take less now on the basis that I can deploy this elsewhere in an environment where other good opportunities exist, rather than taking the view we "might" get more later.
Ultimately I am annoyed over timelines but ok to drill a few more holes provided it doesn't come via. dilution at a depressed SP. Still waiting for the RC update which was promised in the RNS on 27-May and hopefully it won't be a summary of already published RNS with no new information, which is what the Ascot update amounted to.
I relish it when trolls like Rick123 with a capital D arrive. They always rock up before positive news flows.
Best,
Mr T
Rick! Markets aren't running as they should. So 3s are possible if negative news is released. No one knows what the next rns will be. There is no momentum to the share price. Definite signs of downwards manipulation across many shares. Xtr is not a 3p share though. The market cap should be 80m now as fair value imo.
As Buys outnumbered Sells by 3-1, it would seem the market (as usual) is doing the opposite of what you suggest. Although I guess at the moment, trolling here is the best you can do in terms of a distraction from VAST.
The problem is Steve, it is eroding the price on a daily basis now and it will soon be back to the 3s so when the news does come it lessens the profit. I would wait until the 3.5s, why buy now?
>> Colin needs to give us something in the way of news
There was a 15m interview one week ago. There was an RNS the week before that and both an interview and an RNS the week before that. Most companies are not giving RNS and interviews every week.
I don't think the quality of comms is great and we need a lot more clarity on Manica, but you can't really complain about the frequency of news. I'm surprised how many investors have no patience and assume catastrophe if there is no news for a week or two, or the share price dips on minimal volume.
Today BTW we are now on 1.9m volume with about 1.45m buys and 0.45m sells. Down 3%. Don't just look at the % change - check the trades or you will be misled.
@Hawkander
Post recommended as you are spot on mate.
Colin needs to give us something in the way of news, as when I first invested here, we seemed to get news every few days and now nothing, so lets hope he improves comms here and stops the drift South. GLA
Time to go home Pup... @Rick123...
Nobody knows what the hell you are talking about - and neither do you... LoL
'I do agree BTW that comms should be a LOT better'
We can certainly agree on that Steve!
OK - 'The drop' then if we're getting in to semantics.....Either way, a simple statement from the company explaining that pre-production has commenced at FB would, probably seen a rise, not fall, in SP.
There's zero publicity from XTR, far more is done from companies with far less......Fact
I do agree BTW that comms should be a LOT better. I just don't think that is the specific issue for today's price movement.
It isn't a retrace. There is 1.6m volume now with 80% buys. That is exactly what you would want as a shareholder, but even Colin can't control the MMs moving the price in the opposite direction to the actual buying activity.
Bird could have, probably, prevented this further retrace simply by releasing a statement similar to Empress....
I had volume and facts, get in! What’s my prize Uscita?
Bingo!
Less than 400k sells (typo)
Lets look at facts rather than slogans then. Volume is 1.3m. That includes at least 900k in buys and less than 500k in sells. If you go on Telegram I have posted Level 2 to prove it. Somehow the spread has fallen from 4.8 - 4.9 to 4.4 - 4.7 and we are down almost 4%.
How would you describe that then?
LSE bingo is back I see.
'Green filters - must mean good news coming'
'More buys than sells'
'market manipulation'
'Tree shake'
At this price I may be forced to buy more !
Change of subject -
As there is clearly going to be a delay to the original date of June to sell up, albeit a welcome one as it will eventually result in added value, I'm wondering why the IP results have not been published. Also, the Empress Royalty mining progress. I'd imaging CB would be very eager to announce to the world that Africa is now making real progress.
Lastly, I have mentioned molybdenum a couple of time is the last 6 months or so and was interested to see CB did so himself in the last RNS when referring to Ascot but without any grades. I'm wondering if this is because Mo grades are typically very low and that to publish them would give the impression that they are very poor when in fact they are acceptable. Gold plus Mo in Ascot could be very profitable with Mo being valued at about 4 x that of Cu. Odd that Cu seems to almost be absent from Ascot but then that's why it was clearly a new system.
And now 525k in two buys (outweighing all sells so far - entire volume was only 550k) and we are still well down on the day. Straightforward market manipulation.