The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
>>Colin seems to have announced one strategy to the market via RNS and a definitive timescale in a public interview but he now seems to be following a completely different strategy and timescale.
Standard MO for Bird....
I guess it’s possible that this photograph is a few months old, and all but the fill-in holes and what Colin said about Footrot etc is just what is left to do now? I agree though, we are being kept in the dark - for whatever reason. My hope is that Colin is playing his cards close to his chest for a a very good reason.
But weren't they just (lol) putting a couple of more more holes in RC to fill in gaps in the model, and maybe a couple in Footrot plus maybe more definition of Ascot. Do we now have a hunt for a new porphyry as well or maybe even a complete tenement general porphyry hunt ? A bit like an Australiian 'Easter egg hunt' but for porphyries and not eggs? All without clarity to share holders about anything at all and actually worse Colin seems to have announced one strategy to the market via RNS and a definitive timescale in a public interview but he now seems to be following a completely different strategy and timescale. Time to come clean Colin.
Howezap - I think the location is : 33°51'48"S 149°42'37"E
With a view to the SE.
Several reasons for this. If you look closely at the picture, there is a hint of a structure, mid way across the picture, in front of the trees, above the white trailer. There is a corresponding structure near the little lake ( to the SE of this pin location, behind the power lines). Also note the lone (quite large) tree directly above the pickup truck. Again this can be seen from this pin location. The forests behind the power lines are also in the right relative locations.
So, slightly south of your suggested location, but nevertheless a considerable step out drill location from the published drill locations. I’m hoping this is good news, as a previous drill intersected a separate mineralisation at depth to the east of Ascot, which I’ve always considered to be evidence of another porphyry. ( I can’t recall which hole this was, but I noted at the time that is was strange to find new mineralisation at near the end of the hole, away from the area they were targeting). Them now drilling at a relatively shallow angle around the same location to the east could be an attempt to intersect this higher up and determine if there is indeed another porphyry. Could be excellent news.
Thanks Iceberg.
Nobody can be 100% certain. But I have always been would say 95% certain that there are other porphyry’s
I think if you took a very large compass , stuck it into the gap between ascot and racecourse and drew a circle with say a 3km radius. We would get a minimum of 4-5 porphyry’s.
It will take a bit of time to explore. The question is whether we will get that time? Will AA or somebody else wait for us to explore it?
Iceberg - I’m convinced that RC will be big enough to attract a reasonable (or good) offer - either from AA or another source, and it’s just a matter of time. We just don’t know the size of RC nor whether there are other porphyries, besides Ascot ( probably). I’d be interested to know if you have a similar view - and that it’s just a matter of both time and quantification of ‘what it is worth’ to a mining Co. So a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’! Your view would be much appreciated.
On careful examination whilst I was seeing a bloke about a dog, here is my guess taking into account Butlerman suggestion it is further away. I’m fairly sure the pylon in the photo can only be the one to the right of my pin that goes through the two wooded areas. The view is looking east. Still quite a step out.
Dropped pin
https://goo.gl/maps/koEVqorJudp5JaMd6
You have to say XTR were lucky and played a blinder.... considering how cheaply they picked up ProspectOre.... both in terms of money and shares issued.
Howezap if it helps this map from minview shows the power line in a light pink colour running north south to the south of Campbells River Road and then veering North East when it crosses the road
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GWzje8aJFxt-odcj8dUuyxXzy0tDX8XD/view?usp=sharing
Final point sorry for three posts in quick succession.
For xtr in the next 6-12 months it’s not about copper, but more about gold. Gold is giving us 95% of our profit and paying for everything.
We are a gold producer but a copper explorer. Gold now, copper in the future.
Which again is another stroke of luck :)
A read a few posts about when a deal might be done. In truth, my opinion is nobody has a scooby. Not even Colin.
Anglo could announce next week that they had started negotiations.
They might throw a low ball offer to Colin next month. Colin might get approached in August by the Chinese.
Equally nothing might happen until next year.
Trying to time and entry and exit on this kind of thing is impossible. It’s one of the reasons why bigger, more sophisticated investors tend to just buy in and wait, sometimes it might be quick, sometimes not, but with this strategy you don’t lose out. You don’t get caught on the hop by news and end up paying 50% more.
Just to add, understanding of porphyry’s, particularly alternation zones; has really developed even in the last 5-10 years since AA last had a look.
They also did mainly RC drilling which is cheaper, but you miss out on a lot of info such as intrusion directions and layering.
They also drilled to a shallower depth.
Finally Anglo obviously quite liked what they had found there. They had a decent team and (for them) did a lot of drilling.
My guess is that they weighed it up, but didn’t quite find enough at the then time to do further exploration. At the time copper was very unwanted.
Again just imo.
But the directors refused to sign off on the 10-30m that more exploration would have taken, the majors were going through a down size at the time, limiting debt, reducing leverage. They would have been cutting everything that wasn’t a ‘core’ project.
For xtr they were lucky. But to come along, pick it up, do more drillling than Anglo ever did, find the deeper mineralisation, increase the extents, delineate ascot, perform deeper geophysics- it was more skill based.
Whatever xtr finds - Anglo will reassess, and decide whether a copper resource like this will fit into there portfolio.
>>>One question I have about AA and BR. Why is it that XTR may have found something that AA 'missed'? <<
Matt..
Don’t think they necessarily missed anything, they improved on the historical drilling by concentrating on establishing a resource. They did not step out to delineate the body and drilled quite shallow too. We were told they missed the mineralisation at Footrot when they drilled that, wrongly targeting the strongest indicator from their IP survey.
IP is hit and miss it doesn’t show mineralisation, the success xtract are having, in simple terms is understanding the IP relative to the mineralisation from the existing main resource to compare and guide new targeting using a drone mounted EM survey to overlay xtract new tighter IP that has been done to look for subtle differences in the signatures that give better results. I believe is a relatively new technique.
As has been suggested too by CB, majors do not have exploration arms anymore, they buy success and so let a junior take all the early risk in proving up the resource potential, de risking the project before in this case, buying back into it hopefully!!! They would have had a good idea that further porphyry were there I’m sure. The historical IP that I posted on the spot the drill was completed by Anglo back when they had the tenement. Generally if one porphyry in a cluster is mineralised they usually all are.
That’s a fair shout, I would tend to agree about the perspective shift using a long focal length at distance. The Pylon is a lot further away but the cables as they traverse across toward the right of the picture are certainly a lot closer though.
That shot is a great pic, it was certainly selected for the impact of showing the high voltage supply crossing the tenement.
Howezap, Good sleuthing! I’d put it SW of your pin for two reasons. The camera tends to foreshorten distance, so I suspect the power line is further away than your pin. Also the area around the pad is clear from shrubs for some distance in all directions. There is a clear area SW of the pin that meets these observations.
The photo of the drilling crew on page 6 of the report is really intriguing. It clearly shows them very close to the power line that on Google maps satellite view, shows the lines run NE to SW down to Campbells River Road then turns south. The point being it’s a huge step out from any of the marked drills shown on the drill location map. It clearly not one of them. Maybe it’s testing the very southern extent of ascot or a separate anomoly. So where is it?
Round two of ‘spot the drill location with a dropped pin’
The pin I have dropped is on the road where the power lines cross the road, the terrain south is quite hilly as in the picture, to the north of the road takes it too far away. I’m at a loss to even have a guess.
Report
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-AR2021.pdf
Old geophys
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8649O_3-2021-10-12.pdf
Drill map
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7617L_1-2022-5-17.pdf
Dropped pin
https://goo.gl/maps/PA8DVUNGEGxvhHzy5
As AA previously owned BR, I would hope their due diligence won't take too long and possibly be happening off record already. But copper and metals are on a downward trend. I expect at least a short term bounce but going forward this article shows the risks https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1634224/china-economy-news-crash-deflation-recession-world-threat-vn
Maintaining a strong cash balance will be critical in such an environment. This will only be achieved by gold revenues, principally Fair Bride next year and beyond. Scratch marginal mining operations and new "game changer" exploration projects in the current economic environment ?????. Even the big boys like Glencore were dumping assets in 2009, markets can be cruel.
>>In Zambia we have identified and modelled a potentially mineable resource at Eureka and are carrying out trial mining. The initial trial mining produced a very high-grade ore, but metallurgical testing proved to be very refractory. Further drilling and test mining has shown this to be a local phenomenon and we intend to commence operations during the 3rd quarter 2022.<<
On first reading this my initial thought was there was a delay in operations, but clearly the talk from sept re blasting and bulk sampling taken ore in lorry loads for processing was for ‘trial’ mining. With subsequent test work then being done as above. ‘Trial’ mining phase has now concluded with full production starting anytime now. The refractory results of met test work, were a localised phenomenon and not necessarily the ‘very high grade’ ore. I think the phenomenon refers to just the separation process being difficult or unmanageable, but could well mean the very high grade was localised too. What say ?
Sounds like could well have positive cash flow soon going straight to maximum throughput coinciding with decent income from fairbride. Let’s just hope there are no delays.
Still not a dickie bird on IOCG theory though, but Colin was quite clear in that the priority was to get cash out of it first. So, fair enough for now I suppose, can’t have it all.
I think some people have an exaggerated sense of how long it takes for a buyer to do due diligence and buy a deposit! This is not a multi-billion $ purchase, it’s small beer in the scheme of things. Any longer than 6 weeks scrutinising data would be too long, then you’re either into going through the offer and buyer’s governance process or else a rejection and going through it again with other potential buyers. I’d be very surprised if all this went beyond Q1 at the latest.
I noticed he had not posted for a month when I scrolled back to find the post I was looking for. I continued to speed scroll all the way back to Start of BR and he has been a prolific poster each and every month, I hope he is sitting back and taking a well earned break, doubt very much the extra couple or three month further wait has driven him to despair!
When I was scrolling back I landed on the below post by pure chance from nearly 15 months ago… oh the irony
Caveatemptor >>>12 Feb 2021 20:06
People, please remember that a company's duty is to maximise shareholder value ( whatever some may say) and that often means playing your cards close to your chest!??DYOR and man-up to our ongoing situation...<<<
I thought the same CB, havnt heard anything for some time now.
Anypne heatd from CE recently, he has gone very quiet?
I recalled Caveatemptor posting this about a sale. Add on the extra couple of months or so to the programme, that would bring Colin’s target for a sale toJan-Feb 23
Caveatemptor >>>When we went to the investor event last October, CB said he had a target of completing the deal within 12 months - so i am happy to give him until the end of October this year to come up with the goods - but I will be disappointed if it takes any longer...<<<
Sounds like my call for a sale this year is through my rose tinted glasses again....... and believing the suggestion that short timeframes are defined in the buyback clause.