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Moving on from Manica, how soon can the latest policing cash kick off the Zambian copper,can we expect any income generation near term from the tailings
I think we are talking at cross-purposes and confusing each other.
I agree with nearly everything you have just said but I think you have also missed the point I was making.
As an aside - My only slight disagreement is that it’s impossible to come up with an accurate revised figure unless we know what the actual grades will be. Targeting higher grades doesn’t tell us what they will be.
I think best leave it there and wait and see what the actual income figures are.
You seem to have completely missed my point, which is very unlike you.
The point I was making is that the site contractors have complete control over XTR income from Manica. CB can only give forward guidance based on what he is told by the contractors and they can change their minds at any time, resulting in CB having to revise the forward guidance accordingly. Trying to pretend that CB has more influence than he actually has is misleading, as too is trying to blame him for changing forward guidance.
Incidentally, CB did state publicly on a podcast that GF production would concentrate on the high grade veins, so anybody that was interested could have done the maths to come up with a revised forecast for XTR income, all based entirely on information already in the public sector.
CB can sack the contractors he has appointed if they ultimately fail to meet their contractual commitments, although he would need to have a better alternative in his back pocket in order to dodge the inevitable bullets heading his way. Until then, I am not sure what good it will do to shoot the messenger, as that is mainly what CB will be whilst the contractors are managing the projects.
Does there not have to be confusion in the first place ?... for it to be compounded ? The blame lies squarely with Bird for shareholders having to speculate on the well being of their investment.
As I previously stated in another post, we only know what we have been told officially (you may know more from your conversations with CB) . it’s one thing the contractors chasing the higher grades but that doesn’t mean they will find them.
Further, In the mine prophets chat room CB mentioned the new alluvial Mk2 income and he said it was going to be ‘modest’ - his word.
I really hope we do get income of $200K a month, but I stand by my comment that the $200K prediction is more than what has been previously implied – at least compared to info from official channels.
You cautioned about ‘unrealistic expectations’ and the danger of shareholders compounding this. I can’t agree more and that is exactly why I am being conservative with my expectations.
To this end, I’m predicting £100K to $150K monthly income by end of year from GF + BE + alluvial Mk2 income. If the $200K prediction is correct, just from just GF + alluvial Mk2, then my estimate will be easily exceeded - and I hope it is.
It will be interesting to see what the actual figures are come end of the year and if my rather conservative approach has proved to be more realistic.
Early predictions of income for XTR were based on average grades of gold, however the contractors strategy of chasing the high grade veins with little waste and ignoring the lower grade areas has resulted in expectations of 3g - 4g of gold per tonne and therefore higher short term monthly income to XTR. I guess it makes sense from the contractors point of view to maximise their ROI - and it is pretty good for us, too.
It is up to the contractor on site to decide its strategy and XTR can only revise expectations in line with this . If the contractor decided to target the low grade areas first then there would be nothing we could do about it and monthly income to XTR would have to be revised downwards to around $40K per month - luckily that is not the case and therefore something like $200,000 per month is the current expectation.
I am looking forward to getting the update on FairBride next week, or possibly the week after if the contractor drags its feet...
Assuming that XTR has undue influence over the day to day actions of site contractors once they have taken control of production can be misleading and could result in unrealistic expectations. CB does enough of this as it is, without shareholders compounding the confusion...
Let's hope that the contractor plays ball when CB asks for an update.
Buying time to word what he knows will be less than positive news... or buying time to conjure up some better news to cushion bad ?
I agree NtM, the CEOshould know this already...sad state of affairs if this has only just occured to him ,a bit gob smacked with this statement to be honest
Much appreciated on your feedback here CE, not least yesterdays call with Mr CB
I took some good and some bad from that call update and, altogether, was tempted to sell down a third of my current bet here in the hope of buying it back lower in due course ..but went for 15 % sell down only in the end, as the s/p has fallen a lot already recently and there's good in that update too. ( and the raise and the lending set up for if needs be I get/ respect )
'The bad ' is alarm bells ringing in my head around the following:
''Colin suggested he get a full progress update from MMP and then publish it in its entirety and un-edited by the end of next week. I agreed it was a good idea. (Although I wouldn't be surprised if it appears the week after next).''
I was expecting he gets ongoing regular progress reports from MMP - site preparation is a subject for ongoing discussion for eg, even while the plant is in many week storage/hold by the border, but especially around this time of border opening he should be being briefed on this too I'd offer - and could have summarized the - at least near - current state of play on that call with you ? eg What is his latest best guess on the plant crossing the border and broadly what's left to do on site preparation etc.
My - cynical perhaps, but he has much form - guess with this full report idea is that timeframes for 'ard rock are slipping further again one way or other, and CB has at least deduced that already but 'awaits official' confirmation.. hence this written report idea directly from MMP ?
(Very happy to be wrong on this and I'm much more in this for range trading than long-term hold and all this is perhaps opening up more range trading opportunities again as we go etc. )
Thanks for taking the time updating us on your chat with CB.
You mentioned that there was talk about GF and BE being mined concurrently, I had always assumed this was the case from reading the RNS which made it sound to me as if each contract would have its own processing plant required to be onsite 2 months after each contract was signed, from your comment I assume I have misunderstood?
Yes agreed. Its all very frustrating. I'll believe the $200K income by end of year when I see it. It is substantially more than his previous guidance a few months ago.
Although CBs comms is terrible, as is his forward guidance. I still believe the mine will be built and therefore we will get a substantial rerate in SP.
However, I think that will now happen later then I previously thought.
Many thank for the update. Greatly appreciated.
I’m sorry if CB is upset at the inaccurate and un-informed posts, but that’s a reflection of his poor comms. If he communicated with all shareholders as he has done with you, then we would all be fully informed and there would not be this lack of understanding.
From what you have just said, it appears that he will soon be doing that. I hope so.
The $200K a month income from GF and alluvial II combined by year end is new info and , is substantially more than his previous forward guidance stated in the pay wall chat room pod cast a few months ago.
Thanks again for the update. Lest hope you are out of a job soon as Xtract PR man :)
I have no sympathy I'm afraid. When he took over he promised to be open and keep us informed 'Good or Bad news' He's just not done so. (apart from maybe with you CE which, whilst welcome, should come through official channels).
I understand, and take into consideration, the current issues but we've just had years and years of missed deliverables and off the cuff comments in interviews which of course leads shareholders speculating! (what else are we supposed to do? ofc they are generally negative as it's the norm with XTR) - I'd assumed we were at the end of that with the 'PR' bloke coming onboard but lets not mention his efforts to date.
OK - now I've slept on it the loan, as insurance, is maybe not a bad idea (hopefully we never need it) - I'm still Pi@@ed at more dilution especially as, based on your figures CE, '$200,000 by year end' would be enough to start the drill programmes. Especially when we've still not been officially informed that the Australian deal has been ratified, could he really not wait a couple of months and save the negativity of dilution?
Hello LittleWing "upset" was my summary interpretation of how Colin responded, perhaps I erred on the side of brevity as "angry/indignant/confused" could equally fit various aspects of the bill, but he didn't use any of these specific words.
Sorry if I mislead you - it was not intentional.
Incidentally if some of the posts including my own motivated Bird to feel the need to call CE then at least he will be aware that he now does need to deliver. As a long term large shareholder here I do not appreciate his whining about being "upset". Maybe now he can empathise with how long term shareholders have been feeling. OK it is what it is... lets see where we are at by the end of 2020.
Many thanks for that CE.
So, Colin called me.
He read this BB yesterday and he was quite upset about there being so many inaccurate and un-informed posts.
We spent a long time on the phone and covered a lot of ground so I don't have time, or the memory capacity, to report the conversation verbatim, but these were the salient points ( items in brackets are my own comments and not Colin's):
GF contractors well advanced with GF surface stripping and first income from both Alluvials and GF due by early November. ( given past experience, I would probably say mid-end November, but I could be wrong.)
There was talk of mining GF and BE concurrently - CB hopes to clarify this in the near future ( I guess it will depend on output from GF and their processing capacity).
$200,000 monthly income to XTR expected from GF and alluvial II combined by year end.
4.5Kg of gold about to be shipped to Dubai.
Colin suggested he get a full progress update from MMP and then publish it in its entirety and un-edited by the end of next week. I agreed it was a good idea. (Although I wouldn't be surprised if it appears the week after next).
There was a large appetite for the fund-raising and we could have raised £1.5M, but it would have been at a lower price and would have caused unacceptable dilution to existing shareholders. The board decided that a lower value placing and priced at Bid would produce the least dilution whilst covering imminent cashflow and project funding obligations. Very few companies manage to complete a placing at market price, so very pleased with the result.
CV-19 is causing chaos all over the world and nobody knows what is around the corner - if there is another flare-up in Africa then funding will be very difficult to achieve so it was decided to get the loan option as a form of insurance. It costs over 1% of the MC, but is peanuts compared to the damage that would be done if we ran out of money during a flare-up. As with all insurance, you hope not to have to use it, but its a life-saver when you do.
Colin is not sure why TW turned on XTR, Colin puts the drop from 2.2p down to a concerted campaign by TW, Colin has always been very supportive of the guy, he put over $200,000 into TW's first company and even wrote out a cheque for $25,000 just a week before TW closed the doors, so Colin thinks that TW's actions now are a bit of a kick in the teeth.
TW was trying to broker an equity-backed loan that had a lot of onerous clauses and CB thought it would be the "kiss of death" so he turned it down. (It would be shameful if TW turned on Xtract just because he lost out on a brokers fee!).
FairBride, once up and running, will be worth $500,000+ per month to XTR, after expenses.
OK, I think that's about it. I will post anything else that comes to mind.
A4444, Bird did say that they weren't doing nothing,the groundworks where being completed so installation work could be done as soon as plant arrived on site...but what do we believe ..who known now
South Africa to Mozambique Slight delays / disruption Land borders open with extra checks Slight delays / disruption
Many thanks for the update.
I would like to think all the mine prep work in Moz has been completed by now, especially as the shipment has been delayed for months. I can only know (or think I know) what CB has said and he has repeatedly said once the borders are open the mine construction can start. He didn’t mention any other delays re prep work due to MMP project manager being in lock down etc.
I appreciate that you have said some posters are making ‘unfounded speculation’, but that’s down to the void CB has created due to not keeping all shareholders fully informed imho. I don’t believe CB has ever given the news, in a public forum, re MMP Proj manager and lock down.
I agree with you: a ‘full and factual operational update’ is definitely required and would be helpful to all shareholders. Or put another way, CB improves his comms and that may stop the 'unfounded speculation'!
Thanks again for the update. We'll see if CB gives us an update re shipment this month.
CE - As I recall Omnia dropped the project as they started getting better grades on their own site. This was before the deal was dome with MMP (If I recall correctly?!)
IMO, it's not only walking away (business decision or not) but does introduce a lack of trust in a business partner , especially one you'd signed a contract with.
I understand that in addition to border issues there is a considerable amount of work required on site but MMP's project manager was locked down in Australia ( due to C-19) for a while and this may well have caused other delays. Obviously they need to build dams, lay foundations and a hundred-and-one other things before they will be ready to build the super-structure of the processing plant they will be importing from SA. This is one of the reasons I would like to see a detailed update on operations - then we would know exactly where we stand and if 4 months is still an accurate forecast for commencement of production following arrival of the plant...
LittleWing, I think you are confirming that Omnia made a commercial decision based on the returns they could get from limited company resources in the area? If anything, I think they were disillusioned with MOZ rather than walking away from XTR. Omnia had spent several millions of dollars towards plant and infrastructure for the alluvials and then continued ( and still continue) to do the same for the hard rock.
My understanding was that MOZ also spent millions of dollars on building plant only to find that it was not suitable for the type of processing needed. I seem to remember that this had something to do with their being experienced diamond miners, but as it turned out, plant that would have been good for separating alluvial diamonds was no good for the much finer alluval gold dust. It was probably a mistake to go into partnership with MOZ in the first place but the mistake cost them a lot more cash ( not to mention at least one death, too) than it did us. You would have thought that a company investing millions of dollars would know what they were doing? Regardless,
It is just a fact that when you farm out an operation then you lose a lot of the day- to day control over the project, so the skill is in writing a warer-tight contract and choosing the right contractor in the first place. MOZ was chosen by CB ( with advice from our site office?) - CB made a mistake ( as did Omnia as they decided to partner MOZ), it was a disaster all around - **** happens! Time we got over it...
CE... my point was that it was an example of how we were told one thing but something else happened and what we were told to expect didn't happen. We were led to believe that we had a collaboration (deal ?) with Omnia to work a patch of our alluvials but they never did ( I believe they said they had better results on their own patch or something ?)... then there was Moz gold who we were so impressed with that we gave them 400k of placement money... that never was explained after we eventually found out we didnt get a penny of revenue from that fiasco. What I was pointing out was that we get told things which shall we say don't seem to come to fruition. C19 was not responsible for those non deliveries. I'm a large holder here so want things to turn out well, but that doesn't mean I will become a head in sand guff swallower. I will be honest and admit I was thinking long and hard about selling my families interests here but I chose not to. Had I decided to sell believe me the SP would have taken another almighty trashing. I just would like to think holders like myself get a little more courtesy shown rather than what we have had. If a fraction of what we have been led to believe will happen holders will be rewarded but until that happens I can only comment and judge on the non delivery of shareholder value so far.
My understanding from the RNS and listening to CB today, is that the C19 issues are not border crossing issues, but more broader than that. Yes of course, if it is just down to border crossing issues then the work in manica will not be affected as the plant is already in country.
If I’m wrong about the wider C19 issues, and it is just border crossing delays as you say, then that’s great and we will be getting notification this month re shipment.
That said, I would have thought that if that was the case then CB would have mentioned the likelihood of equipment being transported this month, or soon, in the interview he gave today. That would have ease many peoples fears and been a very positive statement imho.
The fact that he didn’t mention it at all, seemed to imply me that the C19 issues are more than just border crossing issues.
I guess we will know who’s right by the end of the month.
I really hope you are !
I think they decided to let go of a side show that was acting as a distraction for them so they could concentrate on the main feature - I would hardly call that "walking away" from either XTR or Manica. When the current alluvials are depleted to the point where they become commercially unviable, production will cease, but when it does happen I would not describe the current contractor as "walking away" - just making a good commercial decision.