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NtMu - Certainly not averse to risk, Almost all of my trading has been on the AIM market over the last 10 years and almost all of that in Bio/Oil/Mining. (Some painful losses in bio taking 'tips' from mates)
The problem here is that we have a Exec that continually makes fundamental, and ultimately costly, mistakes when investing in new projects. Wasn't one of the latest finding out the mine was too far out in the 'sticks to get power to or transport ore'? - And this was 2/3 years down the line, I mean.....
Not only that he's constantly BSing shareholders in terms of timelines and, much more importantly, forward guidance on ultimate return. He sort of reminds me a little of an 80yo Jay Cartwright, every knows it's BS but not quite sure how much...
How is one supposed to make an informed choice in terms of selling/buying when you have to try and filter through the BS? - For the life of me I'm shocked he can get away with saying what he likes, verbally, with no legal repercussions. Not so long ago he was telling shareholders in a presentation BR would have a 100y mine life!
The faster he releases this update and sells BR the better, for me. I can then stop giving the Old Dog a hard time...
I am a sticker for detail, it's the old academic in me, but it's made me some decent returns over the years. I'm also quite forgiving, no one is free from feck-ups but sooo many over the years...
Jamesiescakes and Andrews back and forth on Fairbride Gold output grow out interested me a lot and I'm in broad agreement with the conclusions they're reaching via that interaction.. (not ldeal but ok .. and as CB over promises as a rule, I'll take ok.)
PS: The best 'Deramper' here is Gixxer imho.. but he's just pointing out 'home truths' instead of looking to de ramping this as a hardcore objective.... he has a strong micro detail orientation and a longterm perspective here too.. and there are indeed plenty of 'home truths' in the CB Universe.. and I respect Gixxer's posting a lot .. but as Howzap reminds us, xtr and such like is/are high risk playing (and players need to be prepared for all eventualities imho ..as who really knows what drilling given 'oles might or might not throw up .. and the only way to find out is to go ahead and drill the 'ole .. and CB is a(n) 'ave a go 'ero in that sense imho)
"There *is* money to be on made on CB companies- you just need to pre-empt the ramps"
As we havn't had any CB ramps for some time and the sp is currently very low, I take that statement by Kwad as his encouragement to buy now !
Bloody subtle rampers, you can spot them a mile off :)
Yes, Ted is a much better standard of de-ramper. He actually makes me go and do research sometimes :)
>>>I read some rumours on twitter last month..
Really! That says all you need to know about Colin’s stalker. Who clearly did not have a clue that exploration mining was risky when came on the scene a few years ago. What a shame that enthusiasm could not be put to better use.
Colin has been really silent, I read some rumours on twitter last month. Have a search for yourselves. At least 2 investors have made complaints to FCA/AIM. I have been pushing people to make complaints about CB for months now. Though of course, due to confidentiality- they cant say if they are finally investigating him or not.
Lack of news across the board on all his cashcows, sorry, I meant 'businesses'.
In this market- the market reaction to ramping is really dampened. His Sunday Roast salesman ramps are like water off a ducks back now.
The market is looking at the debacle of BZT-Caerus in Cyrpus for example- and its one of many red flags against how Colin Bird does businesses. BZT has taken out a £1 million loan- due for repayment in some months with no realistic source of income in the horizon after Caerus collapsed. People are weary and wary of the way he does business. He did it in BZT, and can do the same here in XTR. Totally unreliable.
I suspect he is going to come out with a massive ramp and then issue another round of placement. But as I said, we are in different times- i dont even think the biggest of CB ramps would get the SP here above 4 or 5. This is not 2020.
Again, dont take my word for it- the numbers dont lie:
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
Low SP because of the general market and lack of real news and also it is a Colin Bird company. I think there are many people who hadnt heard of the Birdman prior to 2020 but a lot more are now- and they are rightfully wary. Once bitten...
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22:
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
There *is* money to be on made on CB companies- you just need to pre-empt the ramps.
Anyone who didnt sell at 9.......
There has been quiet across ALL of Colin Birds nest of cashcow 'businesses'. There is a couple of rumours on twitter about his financial situation- have a search on twitter.
Dont forget- none of his AIM businesses every really progress- the only guaranteed thing that happens is he dips his hand into each company every year to pay a salary (for what work- i do not know).
The same concerns being made today about CB today, were made by others in 2020, 2019, 2018. Dont take my word for it- have a look back in LSE.
Ramp--->placing--->pay for salary to maintain UAE expat lifetyle and horseracing hobby--->SP crashes again due to dilution and non-progress--->new Sunday Roast interview or supposed acquisition ramp--->rinse and repeat.
And thats not just a 'belief' I have- the numbers dont lie:
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22:
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
It's a difficult question really. There will be a surge in value based upon the sale price and the perceived special dividend value, but there has to be some information on direction "after Racecourse"..... I.e. where is the next value being added from.
If it is managed well, the interim market cap could exceed the sale value.... but that's a possible scenario.... not a prediction from me.
"So say a shareholder has an average price of 5p and are bought out for, say, £150'000'000 (would be equal to a SP of 17.5p), would the shareholder have a potential 3.5x return, or would it be different based on the idea of XTR holding money back for the next step?"
My guess would be that some cash would be held back and you'd get a dividend based on say, 15p per share although some of that would be in the purchasers shares, plus keep your XTR shares.
>>I think its a bit too early to give any verdict on Bushranger and lump it with Moz Gold - Not fully there with that Andrew.
IMO, the saving grace at BR is that Bird was kept away by C19 and that we were already up and running with a great team running the show in Auz.
I have no doubt it would have been a shambles had Bird been more involved in the setting up of the project.
I took the 30kgs poured as being last months total (october). So 2 more months of ramping up.
Not challenging any of the comments though.... it seems only results improve our position.... not promises.....
So Colin, get the troops delivering results before Christmas. Put a smile on everyone's faces and quieten the skeptics.
I don't think "idiot" describes CB but more so "chancer". He's a risk taker who wants the prize of "discovery"
I think its a bit too early to give any verdict on Bushranger and lump it with Moz Gold, Kalengwa or Matrix (remember that must have licence !)
Bushranger COULD still be CB's greatest career discovery and he may secure his legacy with it. Or if things don't turn out as he has implied many times, and is still doing so, then it may be the thing that tarnishes his reputation forever as he leaves the stage .
He will have made his mark no matter what happens, but will his legacy be like Churchill or like Liz Truss :)
BTW, I did predict this back when he bought BR. Its always the same, he gets excited jumps on a new project and there's a flurry of news/excitement from Bird. Then it fades as he gets bored, he buys another pet project and the pattern continues...
Bird not an idiot, not so sure on that. JN bought Manica, it's taken Bird 5 years to get it up and running with so many mistakes along the way, the clueless alluvial contractors he bought in early on, sued by our partners and the diamond miners we gave, 500k to?, that walked away.
Then there's 'company making' assests he bought, at huge cost/dilution to shareholders, along the way have turned out to be useless.
We will shortly have an indication of the true worth of the BR project however, based on his recent comments it's not close to being what we were led to believe.
I still think there's some profit here but not if he's planning on another spending spree.
james
CB did mention 85kg in one interview so I am expecting 75kg at full production. do think we will be announcing FB income before end of the year albeit not a massive amount for reasons you have stated. But with alluvial + small HR enough to cover normal G and A.
I just don't believe there will be a need for a raise unless CB wants to go on another treasure hunt. If he does I think the market will give its verdict - unless we get some v good Bushranger news at the same time .
Hi Andrew
I don’t think we will hit 100kg either but I’d expect us to be at 70kg or there about, as they should be running the higher grade ore by then so income should be nicely ramping up.
CB is certainly not an idiot but at the same time if there isn’t income from FB he might not have a choice than to go cap in hand to the market. FB is a share of net operating income, if the operating costs are greater than gold generated our share would be 0 (different to the empress royalty agreement). Obviously XTR could be receiving income from FB already but I find it strange that XTR wouldn’t have announced this even if it wasn’t material.
Hopefully FB hits serious production before year end and we don’t need to find out if a raise is required or not
Cheers
James
James
Thanks for that.
Yes I do remember CB saying that the better ore will be process later so you may well be right. But I still don't think we will hit 100kg by end of the year as CB is always optimistic.
I don't believe there will be a raise as we will have alot more income soon even if its not as much as we were led to believe. I also think the message it send will be very bad and I'm hoping CB is not an idiot to do something as silly as that esp when we don't need to.
As James has said they are, or were running the low grade peripheral stuff through to bed in the plant. This was found to be in the overburden that was stripped and not included in the ore reserve. So is all free anyway and said to be ideal for purpose. The output will increase when the hard rock starts being processed when all plant mods and tweaks have been made is my understanding too.
Hi Andrew
My understanding is they are running low grade ore through the plant at the moment to jam any holes (not the technical term), once they are satisfied that the plant is operating efficiently then the better stuff will be run through which should get us to this 100kg a month or so. Not to look an idiot for the 67th time believing CB deadlines but until otherwise advised I think we will still hit commercial production by year end “(Commercial production is defined in the Collaboration Agreement as a being installation of a processing plant with a throughput capacity of not less than 29,000 tonnes per month (being 70% of the planned 42,000 tonnes per month throughput).
If they don’t start generating cash from FB shortly I think they will be back to the market with their “begging bowl” just for working capital purposes which would be very frustrating.
Cheers
James
I agree entirely. If there are some tasty projects ready for the taking to cement the development of XTR into the future then there is a clear way to become in a position to take advantage of them. ie complete the sale of Bushranger and retain some of the proceeds. That is how a business is supposed to work: make profits, invest some of the profits, end result bigger and more successful operation for the future.
If I saw a sale of Bushranger with all proceeds handed away to shareholders leaving the company strapped for development cash and then asking shareholders for money back in the form of a diluting raise I would wonder whether any strategic thinking was taking place and likely make my exit..
Agree with you Andrew. The worrying thing I took from the mid week Roast was that Projects in Zambia were mentioned when Colin spoke about XTR - this implies they are looking at buying something there. Depending on the timing of negotiations there (and these may not be in Colin’s control) XTR may need to fund these before the BR sale. If this is the case, let’s hope there is sufficient money in the Treasury from FB etc to fund this, without a raise.
One bit of useful info that came out of the interview yesterday was FB production. CB said it was now at 30kg a month. At the AGM he said we started at 20kg and still talked about 100kg as the full production income amount. So at that rate of increase (10kg over last 2 full months) it may take us sometime to get to CB’s reported 100kg.
Empress Royalty have stated that we will be at COMMERCIAL production by end of the year (NOT FULL production.
We should have a better idea after commercial production has been confirmed by end of the year and then know what the actual Kg per month is.
I can’t believe we are going to increase production by 70kg a month in less than 2 months after increasing it by 10kg in the last 2 months.
I suspect full production won’t be 100kg as CB stated and we wont reach full production until Q2 2023.
The problem with a raise is the message it sends after all CB has said about significant FB income and no P3 drilling (if that is what money from a raise was used for).
Why would we raise IF substantial FB income was coming very soon?