We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
If a sale is achievable, any price achieved won't have any regard for support shown. I think you would be surprised at the number of "large" holders btw.
I can't see the asset being worth £100m or less. I'd being thinking a few multiples of that. Consequently I'd be hoping for a minimum of 20p although I expect some cash will be held back by XTR to fund future exploratory work. Also, if the deal goes as I expect some of that 20p will be in shares by the parent mining company that purchases BR plus, we will still have our shares in XTR which after the spotlight that such a deal shines on XTR could be worth two or three times more than they are worth now.
Andrew, a 10p buy out would give a MC of less than £100m - somewhere in the mid 90s fully diluted.
Therefore for anyone to become a millionaire, they would have to hold over 1% of the company currently. Yes, CB and several of the board would be millionaires but I doubt more than 5 VLTHs hold more than 1.2% each. Of the 1000s who bought into Colin's fabulous vision, put their money in and held through thick and thin, for only 5-10 to be royally rewarded is not a great payback. 15p+ imo would be just reward for the support shown.
Might not even get that.
Gixxer - I feel your frustration and pain! I also averaged down the last time we were at this level but decided to sell a few last week to put elsewhere.
Andrew - I know some LTH's will be delighted to take 10p and a large payday. Regardless, if the Bushranger project only delivers a 10p per share return, the risk to reward ratio was terrible. Let's hop CB proves the doubters wrong and that the 'time of the junior miner' really is here.
Steve
I agree that 10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders, but not for those who invested prior to Bushranger. Most VLTH would have an average sub 2p or even sub 1p and likely millions of shares as this was so sub 1p for a year and sub 2p for 2 years.
I can assure you there are a few VLTH here who would be millionaires at 10p buy-out :)
I havnt changed my view on buy-out value, still 15 to 20p, but I have changed my view on timescales for completion.
Been in here 8+ years Steve, and averaged down heavily off the back of an interview given by Bird when JN left. He promised openness and Transparency (no matter what). IMO we've just no seen any of that - For the most part it's been a nightmare of dilution with Bird buying his next pet project.
I'm still kicking myself that I did not escape when we hit 9p but that's on me getting carried away with talk of world class cu finds. (I think only JDAU, from the LTH's, sold there - Well played)
I count myself lucky getting 10p TBH many have not been able to average down and have lost big here.
looks like i am going to have to put my january holiday back a bit
Gixxer - Given the cost of the licence, exploration costs, 2 years of money tied up and the high risk... 10p feels like a poor return on investment. That said, I can understand why people just want to get out now. I really hope CB can turn this around and soon.
IDD Andrew, certainly based off Bird's track record here in the past.
Be interesting how hear how he mitigates, what most of us believe, the fact that we are way off his statements regarding total cu tonnage.
I'm still hopeful we will have that info by year end..
"Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale"
You may well be right
IMHO CB will keep releasing bits of news, supplemented by his usual very bullish interviews all slowly being a bit more positive and hopefully showing more progress as we crawl slowly to a buy-out in late 2023.
Well, that's my most likely outcome.
Happy to be proved wrong and we get THAT rns in next 2 months... but I doubt it.
.
" I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year."
That's about 4 weeks left then. In theory, we should get news prior to ed of the year.
In the half yearly report RNS CB stated that :
….. will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022.
AND
(For RC). The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022.
If that RNS timescales (not interview) are correct then in theory we should get some news re Ascot and RC in the next 4 weeks.
Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale.
I'd, personally, be joyous at 10p. It's been a long time coming waiting for Bird the return shareholder value.
No disrespect but He's not getting any younger, how much longer can he kick the can down the road if he wants to see a sale here....
Andrew - Completely get where you are coming from. Even us medium-term holders (shortly after Bushranger) are familiar with CB's gift for can kicking. I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year.
As a general comment, it is actually quite depressing seeing shareholder valuations for the Bushranger project plummet as this drags out and the nerves jangle. Even if Xtract can only prove up 1.5mt of contain Cu Eq at this stage, it is obvious that it will continue to grow and may end up many multiples of that. I therefore don't understand why shareholders would be happy to take 10p. What is the point in investing in juniors that are looking for big discoveries, where the odds are perhaps 100-1, if a win only pays out at 10-1?
CB has talked often about now being the time of the junior miner because the majors haven't invested enough in discovery... he better bloody prove it by getting a lot more than 10p per share for Bushranger! The stress of the wait has cost me nearly that much in vodka!!
Sounds reasonable. I can live with that. Thanks.
It’s my own fault for averaging up Jan-Jun this year, as good news flowed in. So my average now is 5.5p. I just want the SP to recover to what I bought in at, + say 20%. If this was achieved by releasing Manica gold figures and/or the MREs, then I’d be more comfortable holding on for several months for the announcement of a sale of Bushranger. But I’m feeling nervous at being under water, and would really appreciate the SP improving a tad.
Anywhere between 10p and 20p will suit me, of course the more the better.
We need the news out!
To clarify LTH = pre Bushranger shareholders
Steve
I agree CB can't wait a year before releasing MRE for RC and Ascot and I wasnt suggesting he would wait that long before releasing that data.
CB is a master of kicking the can down the road and he may well release some news and keep implying its coming to a conclusion. That may well be dragged out until October next year with CB implying "nearly there now" a few times next year
I hope its before October and it may be , but I bet many LTHs would not be that surprised if it didnt happen until Oct next year.
We should know how accurate that theory is by Q1 2023.
My guess is that Colin hasn't been able to get any potential buyer to want to pay anything like what he was hoping for. Its not in Colin's nature to share the warts and all (despite him saying would). I really cant see us getting much more than around 10p... and thats if a buyer can be persuaded. Its not the duty of any buyer to solve the world's copper shortage problem so their first duty is to their own shareholders.
Hi Andrew - CB may want to wait until Cu prices are higher but he can't stall for another year, claiming to be processing data. He'll have to release Footrot assays, RC and Ascot resource estimates and the pit/economic modelling fairly soon because he's said they are 'imminent' and it is information that has to be shared with the market.
Besides, everyone knows that copper prices are only going to go one way over the next few years and this should be factored into the valuation. I must confess that I'm not sure if that is in fact the case when valuing using the Valmin code, but that valuation methodology only applies to 80% of Bushranger and 0% of the other licences. I think CB has a decent hand to play and I really hope the delay is because he's in the midst of playing it! We need to get this over the line and preferably by Christmas!
I could do with some shares issued to me too.
Have to live on something CB.
Fosters
You're missing the point.
It doesnt matter what we think POC will do next year or what we would prefer CB to do, its about what CB's thinks will happen (rightly or wrongly) to POC and is an explanation why there may be a delay in any buy-out.
CB has said many times what he thinks will happen to POC in 2023.
I'd be happy to take 20p now...but thats not the point.
If we reached 20p for the sale based on current pricing of copper (forward view included) would you be looking back in two years time saying I wish CB hadnt sold and held for a higher price?