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This was my most long running share, I have made a small profit in it but decided to sell up yesterday. My reasons
1. I have lost confodence with Colin Bird, and cant trust anything he says
2. I can make a bit of profit in other dividend producing shares.
I will continue to monitor Xtract and may buy back in (a much smaller amount than previously) if I see any further weakness.
Good Luck everyone !
Part of what CB originally assumed to be 'Racecourse' subsequently became 'Ascot', let's not forget. Therefore some might say the cumulative of those two together should be taken as a fair comparison versus 2mt.. so, when Ascot is announced too, if we get to 1.3 or 1.4mt copper- and some gold too - cumulatively that would be a decently less damning for eg
A4444... yes its not as if we reached 2mT and then had the option of "2mT reached" or "Decision to Mine" but chose the decsion to mine and this is the reason why. We had no option because the resource did not come up to expectations. Several times in interviews Colin stated that the 2mT or decision to mine were one and the same thing.
1. I thought he was very disingenuous re the 2mt. HE set those expectations not the shareholders. It wasnt that we didn't realise that there were trigger options and the 2mt was just one of them, it was his inability to manage expectations by giving misleading forward guidance re the likelihood of the 2mt
2. "We are in acquisition mode with small deposits in Zambia"
He better not do a placing to buy any more projects – use FB income or no more treasure hunts please CB
3. Confirmation of no more drilling. I think we will need POC to move higher before we sell this.
4. This is a big discovery and I still expect a buy-out of 10p to 15p-but probably late 2023
5. I can see why many were disappointed or frustrated with yesterdays news against expectations, but why sell? This may now "only" 4 bag rather then 6 bag . Seems silly and rather petulant reason to sell.
I think what he means about help is based on the initial sale %ages.
Sell 80% keep 20%. That equates to a JV, CB has to state that even though in all probability it will will be a 100% asset sale
FFS... Sell the dam thing!
CB says no more drilling, 2mt isn't relevant anymore, DTM has been made, modelling to be finished, possibly with AA involved.
Made noises about a JV ? "made a decision to mine, somebody will have to come in and help us,it's a massive proposition"
Just considering as to why Fairbride appears to be slow in ramping up to more significant output. It’s gone into full production so that would imply that the plant had now been run in, and throughput is at or near capacity, but last comment was of about 35 kilos in September still due to lock up in the system.
A comment from CB that, “the gold will increase considerably when we get to the hard rock.” ( words to that effect without checking) could well mean they are continuing to use up, ‘all’ of the peripheral stuff they stripped off that was found to be mineralised and ‘not’ part of the mineral reserve. Is all additional and ‘free’ so worth using up.
Sound plausible?
I see that watch has sold out..... I know I haven't
:-)
Haha N2M. Nice comeback.
'Hype' is a watch brand that might work for the one and only Mr Colin Bird.... They don't do one in copper.. .. although their orange range might work for him:
https://www.yoox.com/item?cod10=48259871QV&tp=56346&utm_source=integral&utm_medium=affiliation-rs&utm_campaign=be_2338445&utm_content=feed&tduid=7efbca3a3a94f3e2f3aba9eeb23aad13#cod10=48259871QV&sizeId=1
So using CB's horse analogies, we seem to have had run most of the race looking for the finishing line at 2MT having had the commentator bellowing in our ears, "world class" horse.
The horse lost it's way, farted, made a mess of the last two fences, wobbled and ran off the course to a nearby smaller Racecourse than expected and only ran to it's 1.1MT line. Last seen looking for any small bits of field to graze and top up on.
Some punters called foul. Some ripped up their bets and others were more pragmatic about it as the horse is still alive and will still give a return in time.
CB - Come on man. 1.1T is good but you pushed the 2MT on us for ages. Your from Yorkshire, not looky looky Rolex watch land.
Bit more on mining costs.
The cut-off grade is determined by ‘all’ the costs to mine the resource, and the price that a company can sell it for. With large porphyry deposits, there is consistency over many years not only in bulk of ore but operational costs that don’t change much.
There is no need to show an ‘accurate’ estimation of capital or operational cost toward project cash flow. Mining capital cost is usually huge and gobbled up in the initial development stage of mine life. But the mining study does not need to satisfy a financier or guarantee payback of that investment. It just needs to satisfy a buyer that the potential is there for them to have the confidence to take it to the next study level toward feasibility, where CB’s comment referring to a starter project comes from.
That sxx issue stings stop it
The game changer here could be the near surface Cu
The 0.6mt at near surface copper (191Mt @ 0.33% CuEq) should realise a lot of profit and relatively quickly
CB has said a few times that profit for open pit mines is usually when POC is above $5.5K so assuming POC is $8.5K when this ore is being processed (POC probably much higher by then) then net profit is $3K / t x 600,000 T/ Cu
That's $1.8Billion or £1.5B profit in first 8 to 10 years (at circa 20Mt per year)
That enough to pay all capex for the mine... then its just processing costs after mine built so $3K / t + clear profit (probably more as POC above $8.5K by then) for everything else over next 15 years. That could be another £2B clear profit if POC is above $10K post 2030
Does anyone think a major would be interested in that :)
Many clearly do not understand what they have bought into.
Bushranger, has had and still has a very good chance it will go on to eventually be mined, the new mining study will no doubt confirm this, with the inclusion now of all the additional from phases 1&2 that was required to improve the economic viability, by increasing the size of the mineral resource with economically recoverable ore which both exploration phases have clearly been successful in doing. So there is a very good probability that it will be sold. That is the important factor that has not changed with this updated resource estimate. That is the driving factor to the success of this investment to return shareholder value, not how big the resource is.
I would also say don’t get sucked into believing that it is uneconomical to mine due to increased fuel costs. That’s simply not true. Typical operating costs include, staff, labour, supplies, equipment, plant and parts and processing. With fuel, lubricants, gas and power accounting for only about 9% of the overall operating costs for miners.
https://dxi97tvbmhbca.cloudfront.net/upload/user/image/GPoxleitner_OperatingCostEstimationForMiners_201620191128185443446.pdf
Having been ripped off by the Sirius debacle and now fallen foul of this travesty it seems to me the only resource these guys have in abundance is hot air. Message to CB: if you don't feel ashamed then you dam well should because whilst you were careful with your RNS wording, you certainly miss led a lot of folk, possibly for your own financial benefit.
"There has been an overreaction to the news today."
Really?? I thought we did well to only be 12% down.
"Nothing wrong with 1.1mt in Aus open pit near infrastructure"
Nothing if that's what you were led to believe you were investing in.
All I can say is thank God Bird is no longer head honcho at JLP
Time will tell, if it happens I will eat my pig farmer mates working boots... ATB
Had a look at caravel on the asx ore reserve of 583 million tons @ 0.24 % copper1,42million tons contained copper.
Apparently the largest copper resource in western Australia market cap 96 million Aussie dollers about 53 million pounds.They are awaiting dfs and are taking it to mine, by the time we add ascot to to the resource at xtr it's very comparable and they have no gold project if we don't have quick sale listing on the asx is essential to get investors on board who can see the value in this company.
I want that 1.... Please please wake up and smell the coffee.....
There is not enough at those grades to warrant feeding the meagre pay dirt.... through a machine open pit or not....
The labour and fuel will cost more than the product...loss making scenario....
2024..5 6 7... When your kids grandkids are drawing their pensions...This project will still be mothballed.....
How many years has CB got .... at the helm ??? his kids will be drawing pensions now.....
Sometimes you just gotta stop dreaming the dream..... https://youtu.be/wnmbJzH93NU
ATB and Ella the 30% REE was fully explained...get your money over to Cobra Resources..... 10 Bagger coming
missed that in the 100+ post for today, at least that makes a change, something to read (as your money devalues!)
To all the angry people, if you are honest you're mostly angry at yourself for not timing your get out better and the reason you didn't is because of greed, I'm angry at myself, 7.5p would have been a very nice profit but now I'm tied in to see where this all leads.
Colin is quite clearly not honest but 1.1mt is there and will get bigger with Ascot, I suspect this share will be pumped early next year and I will certainly take advantage of that if it happens.
Ella10 you have jogged my memory, CB didn't mention the significant gold content in some areas of Ascot.
That hasn't been taken into consideration but will be in the final analysis.