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Thanks for your thoughts guys/girls.
If CB was planning to mine the area between the two deposits then it does suggest that he thinks the low grades there are of some value. I realise he may not have had all of the grade information at that time but I suspect the geos would be able to make a rough estimates from some in-house tests.
JS how is that rubbish, until it is explored effectively, how are they going to know? It is not known yet if , or at what Cu price it would be economical.
The "not being economic" conclusion re the gap between RC and Ascot is obviously dependent on costs as well as grade. It could be that once the mine is built and paid for from higher grade Cu near surface, we have zero Capex and only opex left for extraction and processing of "the gap" ore .
There still could be some profit in mining "the gap" if that was the case. Maybe not a lot of profit, but more than not processing it??
Not saying that will be the case but its a possibility if you have zero capex in that assessment.
This discussion is very relevant when considering the response to the RC MRE and the pronouncements from amateur mining experts (we've all read the posts) commenting on bald % figures and suggested cut off rates.
A complex system is clearly far more nuanced than someone's weekend calculations can do justice to.
Good point BM, would it be more efficient to go through that 'uneconomic' region between RC/AC even if you just break even?
That region could have the plant close by and be the the entry/exit slope for plant? Left AC - Right BR
Rubbish from howezap again. While there is potential for Ascot (although this looks significantly less than previously thought given the poor follow up drill results), the drilling between the two prospects has already proven that the area between is not mineralised enough for it to be economical.
LW, it may be the case that even with low grades in between RC and Ascot, digging a single pit would be more productive than having 2 separate pits, for the reasons I have given below. So grades that weren’t economic if in one of the standalone pits, may become economic if they are dug out as part of a single pit. Because you’d then not have two unproductive facings on either side of the area in between the 2 stand-alone pits. Logically this would be so, but I’d guess it’s all down to the grades in between RC and Ascot, when it comes to pit design. I wonder then if the Ascot MRE will be issued as a standalone MRE - in which case maybe 100-200kt of cu eq, or whether this MRE will now be issued as an extension to RC, with the previously uneconomic area in between now becoming economic. In which case the MRE could be considerably larger.
I agree with you chaps, also with the potential to join up all the resource maybe outweighed the potential to increase Ascot.
CB made a point of emphasising, the reasoning behind why they chose the Decision to mine, against rather than chase the 2mt with resource ‘not’ joined up for reasons stated.
CB touched on this topic a few times as I recall, it was not just to see if the two connected. And you sort of answered your own question.
Firstly, they sort of were looking to see to what extent the two systems connected.
Secondly, it was necessary to carry out the work in order support where the plant could go. He stated in an interview that 'you don't want to sit your plant on top of pay dirt' so it was part of the process of finding the extent of the open pit area.
I get the feeling that Colin pulled rank on this and insisted that those drills were done.
Let’s assume there are 2 pits, square, and with sides x. So 8x of facings. A single pit joined up, will only have 6x of facings. Where the previously unproductive ore between the 2 pits is now productive and is dug out economically. With 2 pits you have 2x of gradients/facings to form ( unproductive ore in between) and this costs more than a single (longer) pit. That’s my take, anyway, Cygnus.
I have a general question that others may be able to answer.
There was a lot of drilling between RC & Ascot in an attempt to join the two. From what I could pick up it seemed that there was an emphasis to try and prove the link between the two systems. Personally I can't see the issue here. If the two are not linked it does not seem to be important as any local mill can be situated between the two and ore can be hauled out of each. Yes it would be nice if the two were linked as that means more Cu and a miner can make a clean sweep of the two but there did seem to be a lot of effort when the results were not convincing. More effort could have been invested in extending Ascot. Can anybody explain ?
Thanks in advance.
3% up, as are US equities all on the back of better US inflation data
Nice jump:
https://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-data/commodities-prices/copper?_ga=2.111885252.1971373996.1668337472-132894802.1667921726&_gl=1*lm7u39*_ga*MTMyODk0ODAyLjE2Njc5MjE3MjY.*_ga_BHWDNT84P5*MTY2ODM2NjU0Mi4xNy4xLjE2NjgzNjY1NDIuMC4wLjA.
Not to look at the sp until the New Year (unless an RNS pops up in my mail box, of course)!
"but I can imagine that Ascot will only be a few 100K of Cu but probably at a goodish grade"
I am expecting circa 0.2Mt increase from Ascot so similar to your view. CB said we should get another 0.2mt from RC after reworking the model.
We may get close to 1.5mt
Its so frustrating, as we have a big resource, but CB's over optimism and misdirection really has caused a negative reaction to what is a big find.
Will CB learn form this?
Of course not !
Zaphod,
Have yourself a pan galactic gargle blaster and im sure you will have a rosy outlook too ??
Butlerman, I respect your unfounded optimism in expecting a Colin Bird company to deliver any thing on time. The SP is going to sit in the doldrums until the Ascot MRE is released or the Manica income figures are published. I would not hold your breath for either.
Let's just hope that whenever they are published they meet or exceed expectations.
Butlerman: I was also thinking about what is due before Xmas. If it appears on time then it might raise some interest but I can imagine that Ascot will only be a few 100K of Cu but probably at a goodish grade.
As for new money, as has been said most investors are maxed out now. I did have a small nibble at sub 2p as it would be rude not to and I wish I could have more but despite funds being available I need to rein in my desire to get more as I am over-exposed here. So, loos like being quiet up to Xmas unless good news arrives.
The half year report (30 Sept) stated : ‘ Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022’. So this MRE is due imminently!
Also Q3 gold revenues- which there has been much conjecture around.
So, news in the run up to Christmas, probably, as I can’t see anything being published between Christmas and New Year.
>>>> "No trades! Apathy, exhaustion or Christmas or.....?"
My impression is that most holders have reached the position size that suits them, and there is nothing at present to draw in new investors.
The sharp drop recently was caused by nervous and insecure holders bailing, not understanding the 'ok' news wrapped up in the Racecourse MRE which on the face of it missed expectations and, of course, stops being hit. This feeling of nervousness and disappointment was compounded a few days later by those that chose to then bail on the say-so of a poster on a bulletin board. Those that felt they needed to, and were able to, average down or just top up have now done so. I expect the majority of the panicked sellers have not returned.
No trades! Apathy, exhaustion or Christmas or.....?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/copper-prices-traditionally-a-barometer-for-the-global-economy-are-expected-to-soar-next-year.html
"Goldman last week hiked its 12-month forecast to $11,000/t from $9,000/t and upgraded its average price forecast to $9,750/t for 2023 and $12,000/t in 2024.
Bank of America commodity strategists believe copper could rally to $12,000/t in the second quarter of 2023, "
The 'flag' Steve is raising is nothing we don't already know i.e. don't rely on numbers unless they appear in an RNS.
We know CB is stretched across too many companies and he clearly goes into interviews without preparation, notes or a game plan. You can tell he is trying to remember numbers on the fly and he often makes mistakes.
Bottom line remains the same though. This is a junior miner that will very short have enough income to avoid future raises... providing they don't do anything stupid like buy another expensive project before getting Bushranger over the line.
steve, the only part of your post that has any relevance was the bit, " So I don't know to what extent it is still valid", there's not one bit of new information in your post for anyone that's been paying attention over the last few years, and understands the difference between the word's "Should" , "could" and "will".