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deceptively deceptive = deliberately deceptive
Actually my typo may have been more accurate :)
LW
What you seem to be saying (or questioning) is whether we will get to the end of the pathway at all and will CB deliver value?
Anyone who doesnt think CB will deliver may be right and we may have been sold a pup.
My own view is that he will deliver success and we don't know if that success will be 10p 20p 30p or yes even 40p, as the POC will determine that. I'm still sticking by 10p to 15p as my realistic buy-out expectation, but if sentiment turns here then we may get an unrealistic expectation which could drive the sp to an unrealistic high - but a high that some LTH may take advantage of :)
I stand by my repeated criticism of CB of giving aspirations rather than realistic forward guidance and by being "deceptively deceptive", - but I still think he will deliver a SP in double figures, at least, hence why I was happy to add more recently. FB income and the rise in POC (be it this year or next) will ensure a substantial sp rise IMHO
My analogy here is that CB has told us the train journey is 2 hours, non-stop and in first class. In reality, it takes 2 days in third class, 10 changes, we have to catch a replacement bus service and cycle and walk some of the way ourselves :)
But we do eventually get to our destination ! (Albeit now having mental health issues and suffering from a form of PTSD :))
As the "pathway to success" changes over time (which clearly happens with XTR), then the degree of shareholder value realisation changes. The early stated aims of a project has shareholder value in there, but the concern here now is that by the time the pathway has evolved, the value for shareholders diminishes. Hopes for the SP of 40p gradually become nailed on 20p which becomes somewhere between 15-20p etc. My own hope became 10p which even that is now out of date. That pinned hope on Fairbride supporting 5p of that 10p. We will have to see what FB delivers in the real world but it doesn't look like the market sees it supporting a SP of 5p. As the pathway changes it brings scope for optimism in the short term which can be accompanied by spikes of varying levels. This seems the most likely way of getting some return. I gambled on trusting Colin to finally deliver something for shareholders via BR but it looks like my heart over ruled my head. It seems some can benefit from the way Colin choses to operate, but buying his shares as a PI isn't amongst those who do.
Andrew >>BR can still be viable (i think it will) but the pathway to that viability may not be the way CB has implied.
That is really on point, the irony is, although is still obviously arguable, if investors and the market were only subject to official RNS and company presentations to evaluate BR in particular , maybe with just the occasional podcast to ‘educate’ at key points throughout and ‘without’ the constant podcasts and over optimism. The market would ‘not’ have been under any illusion and potentially have seen a far less bumpy ride and now hold a stronger investor base and market cap in comparison at this stage.
But …. the big question in that respect then would be, wether the fundraise for phase 2 would have seen far more dilution for shareholders? So a rampy, over saturated PR drive to increase exposure and increase market cap running up to a raise can of course be forgiven. But, a precedent is then set from then on! We can’t have it both ways, but that is not to say, PR could not have been handled better.
Overall, you sum up perfectly
>>That doesnt mean we wont get there in the end and that he wont deliver success - but not in the pathway he is implying.
Picked this up, courtesy of Datacheck, over on GLR post. I do not have a twitter account so cannot verify.
"I hear that over on Twitter the Sunday Roast gents are going to Zambia/RSA end of this month to view some GLR, XTR and JLP assets, Colin with them. Colin won't be visiting Zambia for no reason or to just provide a tour guide service."
E&OE
"But, on wether BR is going to be viable,it is not a fair comment to suggest that CB’s is “giving his aspirations for and best case scenarios"
This is conflating two issues.
BR can still be viable (i think it will) but the pathway to that viability may not be the way CB has implied. He can be giving aspirations re the pathway to viability. Such as saying...
CB - “We get the conceptual study back and then we’ll go to pre feasibility.” and
" The model will be completed by April, May latest (stated earlier in 2022)
"Fairbride going into production has seen eventual success."
Fairbride is the perfect example of this. Yes, It has got into production and been a success, but its not happened in the way or time scale that CB stated. CB gave aspirational and best case scenarios which clearly didnt happen re FB and he is doing the same again re Bushranger.
That doesnt mean we wont get there in the end and that he wont deliver success - but not in the pathway he is implying.
Operational success maybe but perhaps not success in terms of realising value by way of SP increase and MktCap. XTR has probably spent near enough what it hopes to get back in Manica overall.
Your advice is good advice Andrew, CB’s reputation is only as good as his last success. And being in a very risky sector for explorers and investors alike, where any real project success is very often so few and far between. That success is even harder to come by within a particular company. So his reputation is easily questionable, as well as his interview style of over egging targets and timescales that has eventually done more harm than good.
But, on wether BR is going to be viable,it is not a fair comment to suggest that CB’s is “giving his aspirations for and best case scenarios, which are ‘unlikely’ to happen.” Now both resource statements are out with the relevant grades and tonnages that have significantly reduced how speculative the economic evaluation ‘could’ look.
Fairbride going into production has seen eventual success.
Over the last few years CB has made many bold statements and also ones that appear very encouraging. In nearly all cases the results have not matched the rhetoric.
I would caution anyone in trying to find hidden clues or pointers in anything CB says in interviews. He is giving his aspirations and best case scenarios which are unlikely to happen as he implies.
Please see his previous comments in interviews over the last 5 years for supporting evidence !
I also think something that CB had said in a recent podcast was obviously not overlooked, but the implications of what he had said and why he would have even said it, i think has missed point.
CB - “We get the conceptual study back and then we’ll go to pre feasibility.”
That is a bold statement to make when the updated conceptual mining study is not complete yet, as is currently having Ascot integrated into the economic assessment.
JORC resource updates generally coincide with a subsequent study and these are key project decision points to understand what to do next. The economic assessment in the study that is being produced at the moment will only determine if the project has ‘potential’ to be economically viable.
So for CB to already imply it will go to PFS must indicate they already have a good idea or know, of BR’s potential economic viability.
Did feel it was a more casual comment, and maybe not even an intentional one.
So in essence of why he said it it could be very encouraging.
ZeroMatrix: Yes, I know. I try to ignore them too. I try to get an idea from the sell and buy prices but even that doesn't always help.
Cygnus, I've come to realise over the years that trying to gauge the market by looking at trades is close to futile! But I still do it and have been bemused by the string of trades at 1.8p today. Your post only added to that bemusement, but nice to hear they are not all sells!
Just had a top up at 1.8 p which has registered as a sell. There are many 'sells' at this price so I suspect there's been a fair amount of buying today. The sells recorded here are not reflected by the static SP.
On another matter, the last RNS stated that there were around 0.75 MT of copper at a grade of 0.33%. Although not what we were expecting/hoping for, that's still a lot of copper in a top notch mining country and even then it's not in the middle of nowhere. It's just down the road from Sydney. Even if nothing else is added to the resource, this is still an attractive asset. Just need a little more patience....
Xtract starts at 19min
https://audioboom.com/posts/8225243-12-stocks-for-the-12-days-of-christmas-5-gold-rings-special-featuring-conroy-gold-alkemy-capit
XTR featured
https://twitter.com/RoastPR/status/1611328769913921538?s=20&t=q9N9NmyN60XBoDBYJrjAZA
"....why do we have to determine this due to the timeliness of the release?"
Colin being economic with the truth is the way he operates. He must see it as a benefit to how he runs his companies. If shareholders can benefit along the way then all fine and good but his track record doesn't exactly indicate that delivering shareholder value is high on his priority list. The only way it seems that shareholders can realise any value is being alert for SP spikes when the begging bowl goes around. LTH's always seem to be back at square 1.
Andmillsy. Thank you for the historic research. This sums up my problem with the company, the utter lack of professionalism when it comes to communication. Set a date and work to it! By previous analysis, Q3 will be poor, why do we have to determine this due to the timeliness of the release?
Andrew. I'm encouraged and impressed by your confidence. I have also been topping up at these low sp levels. So just have to keep teeth gritted and fingers crossed for however longer a resolution takes. I now need the sp to recover to 4p to break even. Am I asking too much? Hopefully not!
Colin was saying something about the cost to process is now down to about $10 per tonne.
At 0.1 cut off you are breaking even.
Better to process the ore and break even than spend $5 to remove waste and dump it.
This brings back to the consultants saying bushranger is dependent on processing this ore.
Look at the images on the latest jorc and see the amount of mass 0.1 and above.
I'm convinced the guys have managed to get bushranger economical to mine and we will see an NPV over 500m.
Just my opinion.
"It's frightening to think that the very next RNS could literally make or break the future of the company"
I may have got this wrong, but I don't see it that way - well not news that will break the future of the company. Even if the economic model shows that copper has to be say $9K or $10K a tonne, I believe that will happen within the next 6 to 12 months. For clarity, I don't expect the model to show POC needing to be higher than $8.5K
Worst case imho, we may need to park the buy-out for a year or maybe 2, and wait until copper price goes up.
As others have pointed out, the near surface 0.6mt (191mt x 0.33%) just from RC will pay off all capex and leave a good profit.
It was for those reasons, that I have added another 500K shares over last month (100k x 5) and will keep buying 100k batches up to total addition of 1m by March - assuming sp stays sub 2p for that long.
Previously I said I would not buy anymore as I've already got multiple millions but I didn't expect the shares to be this cheap ever gain !
January sales are still on... but for how long? :)
DYOR I may have got this all wrong - but I doubt it.. FB profits alone, should see sp substantially increase
Sorry... that should say Opex over life of mine.
Anyone here know if capex reduces with length of mining?
Major costs for capex and opex is equipment....this equipment is maintenance and replaced but most of this equipment has a expected life of more than 9/10/11 years.
Anything for shareholders in all this ?
That was the point that CB was trying to make in recent podcast lucky, the remaining open pitable resource at 0.22 processed down to a 0.1 cut off will only carry its own variable operational costs once CapEx is paid for. Not too dissimilar to what Bollidens Aitik mine in Sweden is mining. $200m was a rough figure of annual ‘profit’ from the remaining 15-20 year mine life if recall correctly.
If it wasn’t for the high grade cores the project would have far less chance to be economically viable.
On multiple readings of the rns it does feel like they already have an idea and they are trying to show you. It may be that the deeper stuff isn't as lucrative but with a capex already paid for and a banked profit after 4/5 years!! I think we could be onto a saleable deposit.