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"I think most who were going to sell have sold and most who wanted to buy have done so. This means very little volume. "
I would go along with that, although there is probably a continuous supply of sellers over time as funds are needed elsewhere, patience runs out, etc. Buyers will be existing holders topping up at crazy low levels. But the overall picture is very low volume.
With this in mind I would not expect MMs to be paying this much attention. They make their money on the spread of buys/sells that they are contracted to facilitate. Look at the volumes, and the overall value of traded shares. This is NOT a money spinner for MMs currently. There are more lucrative stocks out there to play with. My guess is XTR is largely looked after by a Market Maker's (all of them) computer programme rather than wasting a real person's time at present.
i broadly agree with that Andrew.. but would also add that there has been a wall of selling here in the last 9 months.. - 7 p ish to 1.75 p ish speaks for itself - and in that window MM's may ongoingly have had a bit more stock on their books for a bit longer than they'd have liked and so have again and again forced the s/p down - or sometimes widened the spread to give them more margin to compensate etc - just to dump it..
(MM's can, in the round, lose money too as they're technically at risk.. for as short a time as they possibly can be granted.. but sometimes that's longer than they'd like ..and they'll dump some at a loss somertimes too.. obviously they make profits from the spread generally to counteract this too.. and recripocally to losing a bit in the crash here , may have made a bit in the rise that preceeded it.. etc.. but an MM(s) could have, altogether, recorded a loss for the year on their books from providing Market Making services in xtr in 2022 for eg )
IMHO nad happy to stand corrected
My view on the reasons for the continuing sp fall is a lot more simpler than some explanations.
I think most who were going to sell have sold and most who wanted to buy have done so. This means very little volume. MMs are not making any money with this level of volume so are trying to create volume by dropping the sp and either spooking weak hands to sell, or encouraging those still in / new investors to buy at perceived "bargain" prices.
There are loads of important things to remember about Aim, such as short term time horizon that many investors have, lack of scrutiny compared to main market , but the main thing to remember , imho, is that the MMs decide the sp. Its not calculated by some algorithm so that's why we often have the sp down when there are more buys than sells. Or a massive spike in sp on no news to get away a placing.
MMs are taking this down to generate volume. The sp does not reflect the future prospects but its a tool the MMs can use for their own benefit to make money by increasing volume.
Of course AIMHO
ps Conspiracy theories around MM's are significantly over egged generally imho..
(MM's have obligations to continue to make a market even when share prices are ongoingly falling off a cliff.. eg AIM generally in 2022.. and have to find the other side of the trade in the market to come off that risk , so it can be brutal sometimes for them too... and sure they'll smash the price down in certain situations..for eg just to find buyers somewhere asap, against a wall of selling)
Happy to stand corrected on any of my understandings/perspectives here:
I believe shorting for such very small market caps is very rare indeed Howzap; The stock would have to be sourced from a stock borrow lending desk to allow shorting.... and that would require an II/Hedge fund who is long xtr to allow their Custodian/Prime Broker to offer the stock for lending towards shorting.. and then too, an II or Hedge Fund to want to take up this offer and short.. and for such a 'tiddler' market cap nobody is generally interested in participating on either side of that equation
Also if there was any sort of remotely meaningful shorts on here, it would be recorded by market short tracking services and someone who subscribes for access to such would comment on that here
PS; what's marked as a buy or sell on the xtr share tade tracker icon above for eg is a bit of a joke.. its a system generated guess on whether price might be a buy or a sell around a moving bid /offer spread, and is notoriously inaccurate
Hi NtM
>>>To me, this s/p decimation feels more and more about CB's credibility than the assets here, alas
?Had considered this too but as has been commented on throughout the s/p decline, the sells against buys doesn’t reflect a big sell off. There is a post over on the dark side about the stock being shorted. What do you reckon?
>>>…..MM's use XTR as their personal money box . Spiking the Share price so they can short XTR for as long as they want without a care what production figures are and yes XTR are a gold producer as well as an exploration company with a Market Cap of just over £15m . Doesn't sound logical when you tot up the assets , revenue producing fair brides , 100% wholly owned prospect , in Mozambique does it . Alas , to a shorter it would though especially if that shorter wanted the Market Cap to go as low as possible believing the MM's will give clues as to when to close their short ..... :-)
I've seen it all before and thankfully made a fair bit keeping an eye on the assets rather than Market Cap which is determined by the MM's
Amazing that as POC ticks on up xtr ticks on down.. and that tick on down from an already extraodinarily low MC, imho
Sub 15 m gbp market cap for all xtrs assets is incredible to me... not least with decent and strongly growing African Assets revenue here thru 2023 and well beyond.
To me, this s/p decimation feels more and more about CB's credibility than the assets here, alas
(If not about that, another way I could explain it is that the market perceives Bushranger to be worth zero currently, and on top of that another say 2m ish gbp of this years revenue will be spent on drilling at it in 2023 and it will be worth zero after that too.... For the record I would strongly disagree with the market on any such view, and my very bad case scenario on Bushranger is a sell on for 10m gbp plus to a small /mid cap explorer)
Although just recently stated, the global economy is "perilously close to falling into recession", according to the latest forecast from the World Bank. Regardless, copper is looking good, continuing its recovery.
Copper futures crossed the $4.1 per pound mark in January, the highest since mid-June with continued support from expectations of stronger demand and looming supply concerns. Top producer Chile forecasted its output to contract by nearly 6% in 2023. Major industry players warned that worldwide production will be unable to keep up with soaring demand as modern economies transition to copper-dependent renewable energy sources. Consequently, mining giant Glencore estimated a cumulative supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes until 2030, and Trafigura warned that current global inventories can supply world consumption for less than 5 days. In the meantime, Chinese authorities reopened mainland borders with Hong Kong and relaxed quarantine for incoming travelers, further moving away from its strict zero Covid policy and raising expectations of higher economic activity and increased in demand for industrial inputs.
* tradingeconomics.com
..Now above $9K.
yes it was me. made a mistake and owned up to it.
ZeroMatrix. You do seem to lead with your chin.
On the other channel you ****ged off one poster for not knowing there were 186m shares in issue in the company. Apologies if that wasn't you.
I didn't know what a JORC was either in Aug 2022. I am of course well able to read and as I said "But am able to understand when something is explained to me".
I'm flattered that you took the time to look back through my posts.
ZeroMatrix
Posted in: XTR
Posts: 142
Price: 4.25
No Opinion
RE: News begore the AGM17 Aug 2022 16:14
I'm not well versed in the technicalities of mineral exploration/mining. But am able to understand when something is explained to me. Would anyone be kind enough to say, in a very few words, what this much discussed 'cut off' is? I can almost imagine, but I'm not fully there yet. Many thanks in advance.
Zero, for someone that is well Informed of the jorc....you think you would know what a cut off is?
I second that Joeman.
I want news where news is due, and we are slowly ticking off what we expect.
But weirdly the very people that are bleating incessantly about Colin Bird having verbal diarrea and over promising seem to be complaining now that he hasn't dressed up the fairbride results enough.
In my mind the fairbride results speak for themselves and that is good news. And the Racecourse JORC was good news (the uninformed are those that cannot see a JORC for what it is and that there is a story that extends behind that).
NtM...... it not being fanfared in the manner you describe might just mean that Colin doesn't expect the need to raise funds will happen ..... ever again..... which would be good news in itself.
Agree with that Andrew...
(And such a potential news vacuum, I had expected, would naturally have been filled with some publicity / bullishness on Fairbride 'ard from CB... but yesterday's RNS - annoyingly - told me that does indeed seems unlikely now..
Re Fairbride, it said in yesterdays RNS: ''The Company remains very confident for a positive 2023 as the operation matures and stabilises.''
Well go out and publicise it in this quiet news period then, you D+ck(y) Bird ?!
Although, going by his 'up front marketing' track record, CB not bigging this up ahead of time might actually mean it's going to be a nailed on roaring success, in fairness)
Andrew - looking on the bright side, if the SP stays around 2p, until Q2, I’ll be able to crystalise a large CGT loss by bed and isa’ing my XTR shares! And then my massive gains in tax year 2023/24 will be tax free. Double bonus!
"I'm hoping for a strong POC year this year, especially from q2 onward"
I'm also thinking Q2 onwards will be when we see some positive movement with the sp. We have been told that the economic model should be out by early this year - so in reality I think that will mean some time in Q2 . We wont be getting any FB updates (from Xtract anyway) until April at earliest - if you assume the 6 monthly reporting starts from 1 Oct (Q4). The Alluvial income in Q4 should be known before April but I doubt this will move the sp much either way, up or down.
So I think we will have very little or no significant news for a few months and the sp will be below 2p for some time.
I guess if you believe in the long term prospects here then that will be a good opportunity to keep adding ?
After those of us who feel like a good moan here - and we deserve it, frankly - have had their airing, then looking forward constructively from here is the best answer.
And Lucky has below given some thoughts on what might be done to help make sentiment better here, which is usefully constructive.
And my starter in that sense was aired yesterday.. but again : I believe a fundmaental issue is that CB is massively over stretched across all his interests and so - as soon as budgets readily permit - needs appoint management level resource (s) to help him, as he sees generally fit.
And as I've had my moan yesterday - I've waited a long time for Fairbride 'ard and it will make a very big difference to xtr from this year forward and the lack of publicity he continues to give this even now annoys me as much as anything Bushranger related has so far, which btw I actually think _ Bushranger - versus up front investment and additional spend so far is progressing decently and will work out well in the end if POC appreciates semi decently from here and he has an in line with Bushranger overall drilling so far decent drill campaign at Ascot in half 2 2023 on top.
(Which reminds me .. and allowing myself one last moan before I stop moaning, for a while at least: CB was way too bullish on his view on PoC for 22.... but applying Andrew's logic that adding six months - minimum - to CB's offered timelines gets you to a far more pleasing outcome.. I'm hoping for a strong POC year this year, especially from q2 onward)
The financial model being profitable at $4 LB would be a nice kicker for the sp.
Colin buying shares on the open market before this news would be good.
Maybe a podcast with Jeremy read about the new jorc and how most of the new material is just the waste converted to ore, because if this is the case it puts to bed Steve's theory that we have doubled the rock and only increased the copper 50%.
We have been told by ZM to focus on the now... well the now is represented by the current SP. Cant get anymore now than that, so lets go and take a look at the SP.......... ooooopsy.
It's somewhere to vent for shareholders. Agree, that person just has a vendetta and is either a trader or ex shareholder. It is also nice to know colin reads the board and maybe it too will be sick of the moaning and deliver something....or stop over promising.
1.3mt of copper is great news but it wasn't because we thought we had 2mt in the bag and a sale last year making 20p minimum, that is why the share price is where it is now.
ZM... The complaint is not that Colin has not been able to say much !!!
Keep up lol
I would question (as I have previously) what is achieved by continuous and repeated moaning. No-one likes kwakadoo posting his list of colin bird company share prices again and again. Yet some posters here see fit to repeatedly state their view of Colin Bird over and over again as if other readers are incapable of retaining information on first (or even 31st) reading.
We are all aware of the environment we are invested in by now. Maybe try to work with it? Posting your dissatisfaction repeatedly is not going to change anything, that is for sure.
The whinging is likely not because we have to wait 6 months like other companies....its likely the normal quarterly statements have changed and this brings suspicion, as all trust has now gone.
Like someone else said, it's likely not to look more professional but to give themselves longer to deliver what they keep promising.
People keep moaning about the moaners....Well maybe if something gets delivered!!!! They will stop!!! What's really annoying is the defenders, defending colin and the company when nothing gets delivered as promised or on time.
Colin is the only person who can stop the moaning!