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Whether it consolidates or not, the long-term outlook from yesterday’s results RNS was particularly pleasing and offered plenty of upside - a Walmart RNS, which I hope is going to come in the coming weeks/months is enough to wet my appetite. Will look to add if share price drifts. Will still probably add regardless when funds allow!
Just looking at LSE's share trades, I guess the SP will slowly go down from here for a while, I think that it's still not widely known what a success story it is. Hopefully some institutional buys will happen. If it drops 5% I'll be buying in again and sell some dogs to do so!
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2024/04/24/warpaint-continues-rapid-expansion/
Looks good on level 2, going to be a jump up today!
£10 a share longer term with all these new store openings. This is just going to grow and grow.
I say
Great set results
Grezzz - interesting stance. Most of Warpaint's products are made in China, but they do have a QA team on the ground there. They actually work with the same factories that manufacture for some of the biggest names - L'Oreal, M.A.C etc
FY 2023 results are scheduled for release this Wednesday morning, and management are presenting to an AJ Bell/Shares magazine event at 6:30 pm - link: https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-webinar-240424
Berenberg initiated cover on Warpaint this morning with a Buy recommendation and 550p target price. Berenberg is not a broker to Warpaint, so the research is independent. https://www.streetinsider.com/Intl+Ratings/Berenberg+Starts+Warpaint+London+plc+%28W7L%3ALN%29+at+Buy/23081581.html
Going through the numbers and the share price (even after today's uptick) is still nowhere remotely near fair value.
Good to see today's update. Yet another upgrade from one of the best run companies on AIM.
The "read across" from Ulta, causing the recent fall, was always a ridiculous market reaction.
Great update, results end April, will look add b4
Lovely tree shake this morning and opportunity to buy cheaply.
Personally I think the company is very well run, with the China aspect necessary to meet the required price points. A lot of Apple phones are manufactured in China so the QA is likely a question of, again, effective management. Of course the market has become increasingly concerned about over-reliance on Asian and particularly Chinese production, so I think Warpaint are sensibly broadening their supply base.
I certainly support the de-risking. Not so much because of the quality of product - the big retailers will make sure they get what they require, but more the possibility of a worsening of the geo-political environment.
Monty9 - I should add, I suspected the manufacturing was China-centric, and since my g/f is Chinese, we hold a healthy scepticism when it comes to quality control etc. Suffice it to say, she avoids any cosmetic products that are clearly made in China and frequently sends European produced items back to her family and friends. As you may recall with baby formula etc., there's often cases of adulteration which eventually get exposed and cause a scandal. I'm a former commodity trader and that was my experience too. If you enjoy honey - never buy blended, uncertified own label brands. Almost all is Chinese and adulterated with sugar syrup...
I wrote to W7L and asked for a trading update date and results date, they replied same day and said results date would be notified soon and results date would be roughly the same as last years, so late-ish April, didn't mention a TU however (but not to say there won't be one).
I think the SP needs a bit of news now and the lack of it shows...
Monty9 - Thanks for the assistance! I think I'll bite :)
The 2022 Annual Report states that supply is from a mix of suppliers in Europe and China (P9).
The Risk section (P19) states on manufacturer provides about 22% of colour cosmetics (I imagine the biggest item offered) down from 24% in 2021. They state they intend to reduce this in future.
It would, I agree, to see a more detailed statement of sources of their manufacture somewhere in the report.
I've looked at the company website (still mentioning Wilko as an outlet btw..) and tried a bit of 'Google-foo', but can't seem to establish where the company's products are formulated and manufactured. Can anyone enlighten me in this respect please? I'm considering adding to my p/f, but would like to understand the business a bit more comprehensively on the supply-side before doing so.
Many thanks to anyone who can assist.
I imagine that the drop is probably a bit of profit taking only on lacklustre day when most stocks are down. The SP has gone up a fair bit in the last few days on no particular bit of news but as they get very good press justifiably from the likes of Walletinvestor, Stockopedia, simply wall st etc. people buy as it's just plainly a good investment. I haven't seen any bad reports on any aspect of W7L as it would seem to have none. Google W7L share price forecast and read what is said, that's what I go by...GLA
Stargate - the sector comparison you are using, is it the Personal Goods sector listed on this website, or another market sector summary?
If it's this website's list then the only other company on there that is remotely comparable is Revolution Beauty, the others are all high brand clothing and luxury watch providers that have also been heavily hit by the China slow down, profit warnings and high interest rates, so not really comparable in my view. I'm open to hear suggestions for better alternative comparisons.
The average true range value, yesterday, was 6.377. A sensible stop loss, bearing in mind today's , hopefully temporary drop, would be ATR 6.377 x 2= 12.74+10(spread)= 22.74. The trick is to avoid losing a position, due to the normal daily price fluctuation. The next level of sp, support, is between 400-403, only if 415, does not hold. I must stress that W7L. is speculative, while the sector, is below its 1/3/24 , time pivot low.
The W7L, sp, has fell this morning, back below the weekly outside high of 420, to 415. Meanwhile the underlying sector, was down today, and still bearishly below its 1/3/24, time pivot low value of 18244.
The W7L, current sp, of 415, is significant because, it exactly represents the recent pivot low of 15/3/24, and the pivot high of 15/1/24. Price pivots can signal direction when they are broken, or also support and resistance, if not broken. If the sp today can respect the 415 level and rally back above the weekly outside bar high of 420, for a close, then a two day close, above the 420, would retain the bullish scenario. Otherwise a sensible stop somewhere below 415, which incorporates the spread of 10 plus the ATR(average true range), or a multiple thereof, which can be found under the lse, charts menu. DYOR.