Vodafone Share Chat (VOD)

When I read this post this morning on this forum I was very worried & quickly had a look at the said article in the mail only to realise I had already read it yesterday on google, but when I read it yesterday I realised there was nothing new in it, so just old news, not good perhaps, but not new, & a lot of it was quite positive I think.

Mrd Hi,

72 post yesterday nearly as bad as you know who, I think that's a record for you lol.

PS. I've never posted my satisfaction of using the two on any survey but you can be damn sure I'd belly-ache loudly if everything was continually going t!ts up.

Well my personal experience is out of synch with the ratings. I'm pleased with my in-home Virgin reliability and service - and more than happy with my Vodafone serviced portable devices. Based on my ersonal experience with Vidafone I recommend Vodafone for portable device service to almost everyone.

Having two service providers means I'm never left high and dry stranded when working from home.

Notice they have Virgin in bottom place. I'd agree with that if it was based only on costs.

Got a great "secret" deal (in £££'s) the best ever for me, with Vodafone which they mostly keep hidden from the public. And it's been running for years now. Ace :) I'm pleased with my set-up and service despite the ratings.

- I must come in the lower percentages; because if that's the national average then it's the average, and I'm just out of synch with the survey in general.

Interesting. Not sure why Vod UK is not included in the Liberty deal. Maybe UK is a potential divestment to Virgin Media etc..

The popular UK Thinkbroadband site who record customer satisfaction when doing speed test results have rated Vodafone the worst broadband provider in the UK in terms of overall satisfaction. I knew it was rumoured - now it's official.
https://www.thinkbroadband.com/news/8229-ratings-people-gave-for-their-broadband-service-in-october-2018-revealed

All Telco industry revenues are declining globally c4% from 2015 to 2021 as the world migrates from voice centric to data centric business models. However, handset data revenues are growing rapidly and Vod is ahead on this curve and has invested in this migration. Vod will benefit from the flatter network scaling required in the new world at lower cost and is why FCF/ divs will be maintained. Additionally, the liberty deals complement and extend Vods ability to earn revenues from the other main lines of revenue growth, fixed broadband and IPTV. Its a complex, technical shift which Vod has strategically chosen the Liberty deal as a vehicle to drive through the integration, migration and exit of legacy technologies country by country at the rate the local regulator allows

No, you are as you claim: Will Fleccy here.

- You have to change your ID now 😅

Sorry with...

I am will Fleccy here he has hit the nail on the head

It's time to buy Folks once the mainstream start laying in

Back to 200p within 6 months or I eat my tin hat here ;-)

"..Usually when the big gun mainstream articles open the scare factory, it indicates the bottom. ... Just my opinion."

- Yes agree, it's a well founded phenomenon, observation.

Blatant shock and awe shakeout article, aimed at frightening nervous retail investors I would guess this indicates that the share price is about to take turn for the better. Usually when the big gun mainstream articles open the scare factory, it indicates the bottom. Probably see a significant rise next week, Just my opinion.

If they reduce the dividend and it comes as a surprise to the market all £60k of my shares will be sold within seconds of that annoucement. I, as an investor, have based some of that decision to buy those shares on the signals provided by vodafone managment on more than one occasion. If they release a separate statement explaining rationale for cutting dividend, I might reconsider. I do think they have enough cash to pay dividends - its the timing of the payment and the additional revenue from new acquisitions that could really help. lets see.

" Let's pray..."

Hee hee, unfortunate choice of euphemism there, Suf :) 😄

Let's pray the turnaround starts on Tuesday, now I am on the firm

Dividend Yield alone will start attracting Big buyers, Personally I put mine in my shares ISA wrap for this reason

IMHO the market offerings this Cheap. .. it's like they Put Vodafone is their 2018 discount offer :-)

Vodafone is just a little unloved and she's looking cheap now

This came out approx 10pm last night, so don't know if it's in Sat's paper editions or just the online only snippets.

- The opening headline is a sensational shocker and is designed to be panic inducing. But read it slowly and you quickly realise there's absolutely nothing new that they're reporting, just a rehash of known concerns that are already out there.

Still as sensational headlines go it's well up there with their best. Best just to focus on that £9.3m maximum salary of Nick Read and curse quietly that no way is he worth that much, under your breath.

Have your breakfast first before reading the opening headline :)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6373389/amp/Fears-Vodafone-dividend-shares-collapse-grapples-46bn-debt-pile.html

Was going to comment on the market caps myself. It wasn't so long ago that I looked and Vodafone's was over 50b and BT's 20 ish. Now the gap is much much smaller when not that much seems markedly different. Interesting shift if nothing else.

Vodafone Liberty Global Transaction details and financing revisited

The increased exposure to resilient converged revenues and an enhanced growth outlook supports an increase in the Group's long-term targeted net debt/EBITDA ratio to 2.5-3.0x compared with 2.0-2.5x currently. Pro forma for the Transaction, and after excluding the EBITDA benefit from UK handset financing and settlements, Vodafone's FY2018 net debt/EBITDA (on a consolidated reported basis) is expected to be at the upper end of this range.

The mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs) are expected to mature around three years after completion. Assuming the Group has sufficient headroom within its targeted 2.5-3.0x leverage range, Vodafone may elect to purchase the shares issued under the terms of the MCBs, thereby avoiding equity dilution. Vodafone will also hedge its exposure to share price movements during the term of the bonds via an options strategy. This strategy involves the purchase of call options funded by the sale of put options, which ensures that at maturity, the economic cost to repurchase the MCBs will be similar to the face value of the bonds at issuance; additionally, when the MCBs convert to equity, they will effectively do so at the prevailing share price at the time of conversion.

Dividend policy unchanged
Vodafone reconfirms its intention to grow the dividend per share annually, which is further supported by the expected accretion to FCF per share from the Transaction.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=VOD&ArticleCode=wisy6ck1

Global RNS:
"Vodafone reconfirms its intention to grow the dividend per share annually, which is further supported by the expected accretion to FCF per share from the Transaction." It's pretty clear that this is what they intend to do when they did their sums before making a bid. I am taking them at their word.

Interesting thought Longish. Checked out your figures and agree.

Hmmm... Could tonight's close then, be the floor or v close to the floor? Particularily if Tuesday holds nothing undesireable in the trading update?

I've counted only 3 other days where the SP closed near this low, with this being the lowest close so far, but not the lowest intraday tail - as Oct 26th holds that @ 142.60p - but that was just an intraday, none have closed this low. Using memory now, too tired to actually go check.

But Hmm.... and on that thought -

Time for me to turn in Zzzzzzzzzzz.............

Of 2 billion is what we need. After paying for spectrum. 2+2 will cover divis.

Next Tuesday H1 Revenue = €22.4225bn

Tsk! Yes, I know you're checking. Typo - should have read €22.425bn

Earnings:

Thanks to poster Magnification who this morning linked to this quote: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/new-strong-sell-stocks-for-november-8th-cm1052434

What a depressing header they have VOD under: "Strong sells for November". Yuk! When does the good news start? (Well, have something up my sleeve on that score maybe post about it sometime this weekend if I get the time :)

This is the pertinent bit:

" Vodafone Group Plc is involved in telecommunication services. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has been revised 1.6% downward over the last 30 days. "

That's the first I've seen of a downgrade amongst market expectations for the earnings in next Tuesday's update.

Hmm, so, earnings, do you have a figure in mind - or just going to suck it and see and take what comes on the day with no expectations either way?
Let's have a bash at working out some market expectations and see if on the day the SP moves in the appropriate direction based on what we can come up with in this little exercise.

First off, I'm concerned with that forecast of a 1.6% downgrade. Was expecting some on here would have posted of changes in the market's expectations of earnings from VOD. Could this be the forerunner of the very thing that many have been wondering, namely just what the hell is driving the SP relentlessly southwards?

Has it been downgrades in earnings expectations by the market that's been responsible for the declining SP?

Here's what the market consensus is for the full year (don't have their half year estimates). The two H1 & H2 dates don't seem to be cyclical looking back over the years so rightly or wrongly just going to cut in half, the full year estimates.

Full year Revenue estimate = €44.85 bn (3.7% decrease on last year)
Full year net profit estimate = €2.682bn (9.9% INCREASE on last year)

========================
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So.... for next Tuesday that means the market must be looking for -

Next Tuesday H1 Revenue = €22.4225bn
Next Tuesday H1 Net Profit = €1.341bn

So come in above the revenue of €22.4bn and you'd be right to expect the SP to start singing?

And

come in with net profit in excess of €1.34bn and similar singing, yes?

Or just come in on budget should be enough to please the market with no unwelcome nasty suprises?

If the new CEO is secretive then he might only talk about percentages, in that case take note of the two key percentages of market estimates of revenue being acceptable at no worse than down x3.7% against last year.

- and net profit being acceptable if no less than a 9.9% Increase!

Conversely come in seriously less and ....... well you're allowed to come in just a little bit less - whatever, those are the two H1's key lookouts on Tuesday.

Your view may differ. Just back of a fag paper figures by me in the absence of what the market is looking for in H1 results, as only full year estimates available.

Vod usa closed at 144.5p. Bring on 150s on tues! See you all tues morning 7am

At 124p, Vod market value would be c.£33Bn.

Vods current book value (net realisable value) is c.£61Bn!