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I guess we may see changes in credit rating now that Vod has acted in favour of debt investors. In theory a less negative outlook and SP lift at some point? Certainly saw the SP drop on Moodys downgrade.
"A small increase in a short can very often be followed by a much bigger buy back % ....buying more at the lower level that what they sold to take greater advantage of the lower price..."
Certainly so. For now though, there's little indication of it. Thought that short-tracker only goes back to 2012, current short positions on VOD are just off record highs. That suggests that hedgies see more downside ahead, unless of course they begin closing very soon. What might prompt a buy-back in the foreseeable future, Lord knows. I see no substantial good news for VOD ahead anytime soon. But we can never assume too much as being 100% either way. So it's one to watch very closely for those in my position... just in case the bottom lies closer to £1. - Regards.
Don't buy vod just yet as my dog didn't smell her bottom on Friday :)
To clarify, meant: Indeed so re your point about Arrowgrass Capital & only a small rise in shorts in their case. Good spot. Cheers.
" Certainly a concern if ANY shorts are being added at 10-year lows , however small percentage-wise. "
A small increase in a short can very often be followed by a much bigger buy back % ....buying more at the lower level that what they sold to take greater advantage of the lower price...
Remember this ..... and why no doubt there will be BIG buys at the low SP, banked for future big gains
" Vodafone is eventually expecting the cost of supplying 5G on a per Gigabyte basis to be up to ten times less than current 4G networks."
"Now...I have been wondering if....since that time ...theose bondholders receiving shares as a redemption of the bonds have been selling those shares into the market, further compounding the SP drop, or even being part of the shorting of the shares"
Thanks. VG points. Most probably that's so, though also difficult to gauge to what degree it's happening. That aspect of markets still remains fairly abstruse to ordinary PIs & traders, me included. What little I know is that, my understanding is that only brokers & actual shorters take the risk. The holders whose shares are loaned out to shorters have no knowledge of it. So for them it carries no risk. So I imagine that may well be contributing to the shorting here. But I know little more.
Re comment in your previous post: Indeed so & collectively short positions bound to be much higher than 3.30% when factoring in hedge funds shorting at less than 0.5%. Presumably there'll be a fair number of those. Hence my question mostly to self: how low do these hedge funds see VOD going, mindful that for the past few months at least, only shorters, to their credit, have called this spot on?
Certainly a concern if ANY shorts are being added at 10-year lows , however small percentage-wise. VOD's chart also looks very bearish for possibly more falls before a bottom found. Most of us have our limits to how much more punishment we can take if we're also leveraged. - Regards. Catch all later.
I have been wondering if.....
the redemption of the second tranche of the MCB back in Feb resulted in up to 799m shares being issued to bondholders at at a conversion price of 180p each.
VOD then started the buy back programme to slowly buy back 799m shares so as to avoid any dilution
Now...I have been wondering if....since that time ...theose bondholders receiving shares as a redemption of the bonds have been selling those shares into the market, further compounding the SP drop, or even being part of the shorting of the shares
VOD raised £1.44 billion and I have no idea what the price will be to buy those 799m shares back with the buy back programme, but they put aside £1.5 billion..... so the cost of raising that fund was actually very small ..and as the SP has fallen the buy back of course gets cheaper by the day almost.....
" Well, short positions on VOD increased again from 2.79% when I posted to TLWilliams 3 days ago, to 3.30% now (see short tracker link in said post). That indicates that some hedge funds see this falling much further, even if there are rises before a bottom seen. Rightly or wrongly, they see any rises likely to be sold off. "
It wasnt really 2.79% before....because that is only the declared shorts with a position over 0.5%
If you look at Arrowgrass,they had a short position of 0.49% and as such wasnt included in that 2.79% figure...they went below the 0.5% and got removed from the headline figure
Theythen increased to 0.51% to 16th May and as such that whole 0.51% is now included in the above total that you are looking at....now showing 3.30%
It has really gone from 3.28% to 3.30% ...hardly a change really...
It is of course likely to be a lot higher figure overall than 3.30%, simply because all those shorts below 0.5% are not included in that 3.3% figure
Anyone got a view how the SP might react to the end of the daily purchase of own shares [20 May 14.5m per day]?
Its coincident with finding a support level which Jack has highlighted in the previous post?
Possibly a good buy for L/T hold. however, only as long as prepared for further volatility. Broadly agree with Poker, especially re dividends. If revenues keep dropping, which seems conceivable, no surprise if divi is cut yet again later as debt rises from Liberty deal. It was always too high & we've heard a lot of optimism bias on various VOD BBs re FCF covering divis safely.
Future SP? Well, short positions on VOD increased again from 2.79% when I posted to TLWilliams 3 days ago, to 3.30% now (see short tracker link in said post). That indicates that some hedge funds see this falling much further, even if there are rises before a bottom seen. Rightly or wrongly, they see any rises likely to be sold off.
VOD's daily average volume is over 84m. Past 5 days has seen well above, from Monday respectively: over 168m, 181m, 128m, 114m & over 120m. Funds exiting. Also another new 10-year low on Friday. This suggests a rebasing of SP that may stay at near these levels a while. No quick recovery in SP seems realistic now. Not without fresh good news.
Bottom line: I've enough exposure & won't buy more here again. Already decided to cut at loss higher up later. But for those prepared to hold much longer-term & ride out fluctuations, based on the view that a lot of bad news ought to be priced in, it's perhaps worth a stake. Or maybe take on board Poker's sound view: wait for support level. No support here yet as SP keeps closing at new L/T lows. - Best of luck!
The Weekend FT (chronic investor) has VOD as a Hold and watch from the sidelines
Key points in the FT article:
a.) slashed div - disappointing income seeking investors
b.) relief VOD intends to pursue a progressive div from its rebased position (some remain sceptical given November they planned to maintain the div.. )
c.) Competition in Spain and Italy, headwinds in SAfrica, high spectrum auction costs have reduced headroom
d.) So divs reduced to lower debt and delever to the lower end target range (2.5 to 3 times cash profits) in the next few years
e.) FY19 a dip in sales reflected currency movements, new accounting rules and VOD Qatar disposal and loss on disposal of VOD India
f.) FY 2020 expects adjusted cash profits of €13.8bn - €14.2bn with pre spectrum cash flow of at least €5.4bn.
g.) These goals are underpinned by portfolio optimisation plans including €2.1bn sale of New Zealand and €18.4bn acquisition of Liberty assets (to complete in July)
Q. With the dividend now cut to 9 cents is this the total dividend for year?
A. yes...for the VOD financial year 2019-20
Q. What would the yield be on current SP? ... (currency conversion dependent )
.. say...9 eu cents = 7.88p (7.88/124.28)*100 = 6.3%
Q. is it reasonable to expect the dividend will not go down any further and will remain the same or increase annually
A. Well....nothing is ever certain... and who knows what lies ahead ....but...given a steady ship going forward I guess "reasonable to expect" that 9 cents is the new base ...much else will depend on annual performance I would imagine
Q. Anyone think the SP and dividend could go even lower before bottoming out?
A. No one can predict anything with any kind of certainty,at present..given the scenarios with Brexit, Trump, EU Elections, Sterling/ EU currencies, Liberty deal decision etc etc
Always best with any share investment to buy your total allocation in 2-3 buys....you are very unlikely to pick the day, the the bottom is reached..
May even be wiser to wait until the bottom has happened and an upturn is in place before making any investment decision
No investment advice intended....do full research and make your own decision
As Carlsberg would say, Probably. But not if your hardup!!
Would any of you seasoned investors consider this potentially a good starting point to buy in long term? With the dividend now cut to 9 cents is this the total dividend for year? If so, what would the yield be on current SP? The talk is of returning to progressive dividend policy in 2020 so is it reasonable to expect it will not go down any further and will remain the same or increase annually? Anyone think the SP and dividend could go even lower before bottoming out? Any opinions would be greatly appreciated.
Do you think the journo from the Times has a dog!!
There’s a lot goes on round that photocopier!
Predict and chart as much as you want! But wake up smell the coffee Lol lol lol
Well if the dog's tipping it - I'm in!!!
I've seen what octopuses can do predicting major football tournaments. So if anyone's got a pet octopus then I'm sorry halfpenny - your dog would be toast.
"I cant yet believe that ii / hl offer superior quote prices over x-o / i web - the reason being because out of the 20 or so people who have told me they recommend iweb / x-o, all have said they came from ii / hl and they would never go back, some even mentioning they thought iweb / x-o offered better prices."
You may be right re iWeb & X-O. The people I've spoken to on other sites rate them as more than good enough. But for eg. my own experience with TDD since 2010, doing over 70 to 75+ trades some years, was excellent execution prices. Often beating market. Better than ii's. That rendered TDD's £12.50 commission as seeming a few quid cheaper than £12.50. But that's less of an issue for anyone rarely trading.
Obviously I can't confirm how good or poor HL are. HL have over 1 million clients. UK's biggest broker. So bound to be some clients who find fault. I've yet to decide where I'll go to.
Will be interesting to see what Velo notes in his execution price comparison test next week & thanks for that in advance, Velo! Appreciated. - ATB to both!
"Jackdawson, Can you point me to where it says X-O has 5 different sources to get better execution prices and to where HL claim to have 32?
All that glitters isnt gold. ii is pure proof of that, a horrible service but designed in away to look dominant, authoritative and official"
Hi Simon & Velo,
No problem, Simon. It's a w/end & I'm sure others are fine with some O/T helping others make best decisions. FWIW, I only found out due to having same idea as you, ie. ii's new price increases for inactivity. I'm also considering X-O, iWeb or HL? Important decision transferring. Before that, I want to collect my LLOY dividend payable next week & book my VOD & SBRY divis, both XD's 6th June. Also note, reportedly, accounts are inaccessible during transfers. They can last from weeks to over 3 months (if client reviews on Trust Pilot are to go by).
Link & key quote from HL’s site.
“Our focus is on you and getting you the best price on your deal. When you ask us to place a deal for you, we’ll get prices from up to 32 different places. And you’ll get the best price."
From X-O's site.
“Jarvis places significant reliance on the following execution venues. - Execution venues. UK Equities and exchange-traded products.
KBC Peel Hunt
Shore Capital Stockbrokers Ltd
Knight Equity Markets
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe
Hope that helps. As I said, my former broker TDD had no added fees & offered superior execution service . Now, if over next 20 years one has periods of inactivity that total, say, 50 months, conceivable with real shares even for those like me in downturns, ii think it's fine to take nearly £500 from client accounts at £9.99 a month. For those less active, I can see why people are leaving. Their free commission credits last 90 days. Fine for those trading frequently without longer breaks, otherwise a gimmick. - Regards.
My dog's just informed me Vodafone are going to buy Thomas Cook :)
Simon, with Jack's input, your initial post has now resulted in setting me off on my own quest.
I will run some dummy test quotes on Monday, or later in the week if overly busy, and report back here under this thread, on the results of a three way test between:
iWeb . v . AJ Bell . v . HL
and try to have all three open at the same time live on tabs, for ultra fair comparison.
I'll use VOD as the first test then a smaller share (Hils) that I 'felt' I had received a poor price offer from iWeb.
- It'll only be possible to get buy price comparisons in this experiment, but that will do.
Jackdawson, Can you point me to where it says X-O has 5 different sources to get better execution prices and to where HL claim to have 32?
All that glitters isnt gold. ii is pure proof of that, a horrible service but designed in away to look dominant, authoritative and official
x-o / iweb on the other hand look basic, but thats all I actually want.
If the truth was told ii and x-o probably both run on similar technology and use similar api's... one just charges you for all the bells and whistles bollocks, and for "advice" in the form of terrible articles written by people who never seem to know what they are talking about.
I dont want to pay additional charges for all that useless crap, Just want to buy wat I want on a basic interface that works.
I cant yet believe that ii / hl offer superior quote prices over x-o / i web - the reason being because out of the 20 or so people who have told me they recommend iweb / x-o, all have said they came from ii / hl and they would never go back, some even mentioning they thought iweb / x-o offered better prices.
Velo, thanks for the info, noted your experiences with iwebs charges
Meant to mention I was with Selftrade many years ago. Loved it then, but it got sold and their platform changed.
It looked like somebodyhad hired a teenager to do it in their bedrrom. Dreadful after that. I was out fast. So nil points for Selftrade they were £12 odd per trade back in the day, too.
Jack @ "...They use 32 different places to get best execution prices.....For regular traders, what you save in cheaper commission can cost you in worse execution prices.."
That must be it, one of the reasons I prefer HL
A few weeks ago I sold a share that had more than doubled in price. I'd held it so long that I had forgotten that if you caught it on the wrong day the spread could bite you on the bum, or that's what I thought until your reminder of HL's 30 odd places to check for best price.
I was using iWeb to sell it. Hardly done any selling on iWeb - all buying mostly. The price offerred was obnoxiously low. Checked HL and thir prices seemed much, much keener.
Confused I checked AJBell. They too were better than iWebb but dearer than HL
Thinking it was just a blip I returned to iWeb and the price on offer had gotten better somewhat but still not as good as the other two. Didn't dare waste any more time so had no option but to accept the sell price of iWeb.
A little bit dissapointed by the net funds received I went back for a third round of checks and yep HL was the best and it wasn't a blip. I felt peeved all that day, muttering: They saw me coiming, the blaady rob dogs etc.,etc., etc.,
But you've just reminded me how much of HL I take for granted. The only reason I don't have ISA's in HL is fear of a broker bankruptcy, so I spread my funds around for safety should brokers go under. Think I'll do a bit more checking and comparisons with say dummy buys on all 3 brokers and compare. I might yet open an ISA within HL if it pans out.
Want to check if that heavy SIPP monthly fee would count towards letting me off a bit for an ISA account with them.
That's another thing, HL available to speak to, by phone all Sat mornings. No chance with the other two Isa brokers.
The £1.72... was uneasy reading!! I remember it well!
"2) HL is the best in the country but pricey, it's got all the bells and whistles - bootiful plarform; beware it'll ruin you for any other platform -but you will fall in love with it."
I can well believe it. Reading their site indicates not only an impressive range of services, but they use 32 different places to get best execution prices. X-O has about 5, which is still good for a discount broker.
I'm with ii, for now, but for those only holding & rarely ever trading, I agree with others that iWeb & X-O are worthy contenders. Others I know who use them say they're fine., despite being not as diverse in the range of investments they offer & using plain vanilla sites. But that's to be expected from cheaper brokers.
For regular traders, what you save in cheaper commission can cost you in worse execution prices. For eg. I was with TD Direct before ii took over. Though TDD's standard commission was £12.50, they had no added fees for share accounts & they invariably got market beating execution prices. This meant one saw the £12.50 commission as cheaper in real terms. I'd welcome back TDD anytime! - Regards.
halfpenny - I would dearly like to borrow your dog. How much does he charge for mowing lawns? 2 tins of pedigree or 4 per lawn?