Member Info for Pokerchump

Can someone explain to me the SP slump over the last few weeks. It’s been a s**t show !!

Why has this tanked today ?

The direction of travel going forward will be over the next 2/3 days. A downward continuation or bounce back.

Technically I’m delighted it hit 104/105 support and bounced back - right off the daily 20 EMA as well and finished above the daily 8EMA. I’m looking forward to it moving upwards again, as if it does, it’s a straight run up to the 120 mark.

Any timelines on the lease agreement ? This share is just drifting down now until we get some news.

What happens here if we don’t get the extension ?

Berenberg said the premium offer was "eye catching".

"We have been hold-rated on Kenmare since 2023, since which point the shares have fallen circa 37%, with the view that free cash flow generation will be limited while it progresses further life-of-mine extension projects," it said.

"Our risked NAV stands at 448p per share, and our unrisked NAV stands at 585p per share. Mr Carvill knows the business incredibly well, having been its CEO from 1987 until leaving the company last year.

"In our view, the 530p per share all-cash bid was very compelling (which we would have taken) and we note that the best share price seen in recent history was 526p per share in 2022.

"Similar to Anglo American, we think that Kenmare's board and management would prefer to progress its strategy rather than sell at this point, which to us means that shareholders will need to be more patient to see value delivered.

"We see limited other rival bidders for Kenmare, although Rio Tinto is a potential bidder due to Kenmare's attractive ilmenite feed for its titanium dioxide business. However, having just closed the deal for Arcadium Lithium, we question whether Rio would be willing to pursue another transaction so quickly, even though the total value of the deal would be fairly immaterial for Rio."

Needs to hold the daily 200MA/130p for me. If it drops lower then we could be looking at 115p mark.

Where’s Velo when you need him for his TA analysis ?

Congratulations Savage, looks like you sold at a good time. I assume the 7% you didn’t sell included BT ? If not, why hold them and if you did, why celebrate the SP falling ?

Savage, any particular reason you believe being sub 140p is a thumbs up ?

I’m afraid this has 70p written all over it if it doesn’t close above 73p and/or the 200EMA.

70p on Friday is my call unfortunately.

76p again for me, please. Even a broken clock is right twice a day !!

Well, as a long suffering VOD holder, I’ll have my first guess in the game. If it breaks below the daily 200EMA I’ll call 71p, but if it bounces off it , I’ll say 76p.

So, as an optimist 76p for me, please.

What the heck has happened to this share today ? Have I missed anything ?

Fleecy, if any line in that picture was the SP, I’d be a lot happier. These days SP seems to be valued by sentiment not logic.

My view looking purely at technicals on the daily chart, anyone buying now, trying to call the bottom is just gambling. Until this moves back up past 72p by a good few pennies, pulls back and strongly rejects 72p to show a change of direction, this is just in a constant down trend.

70p could be the bottom. It’s visited here a good few times and bounced back. Nobody knows and tomorrow and next week are the key for me as to whether the next leg is up or down. As for shorts opening, that would be a very bad omen.

It’s not the dip but the close that is worrying. If buyers don’t come in at this price, this could drop to the next key level.

Got to admit now it’s closed below 70p, I do fear it will drop more. There’s definitely demand at this level but the 70p breach could make a lot of holders panic sell.

It’s got to close above 70p going into the weekend IMO !!

I’m not an accountant by any stretch of the imagination, but it is clear that various people on this board with financial acumen have read the results and are painting very different pictures.

The only current definitive answer is the SP and Mr. Market doesn’t seem too happy. Fundamentals might be current news but SP will always be the King.

Let’s hope the Yanks don’t give this another kicking later.

Yield is no good if your capital is being destroyed. Yield only matters against your average price. Anyone who has bought higher up does not get the existing yield.