George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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This will tip our Australian friend over the edge. Should be amusing.
It will take a while to unpick what he said but I will share what I got from the call
Bob Sangha called me today
We'll have to agree to disagree. Both agreements are highly significant.
Not really Add, no.
The mining concession renewal was pretty straightforward in my view. A little bit more to the exploitation agreement but was it really any different to publishing a PFS and initial IPA as we did under Cazzubbo?
Bozi, I would say the mining and exploitation agreements are signs of considerable progress. Or do you think not?
I'm also hopeful the ongoing IPA will be produced soon.
Based on what Add? I've not seen any behaviour to separate him from previous regimes.
The only difference is that he holds stock so is more aligned in that respect.
Eloro - you've got to remember with Warren he had no way of cashing Rosseau out of Cornerstone. The prospects of doing the same at SolGold are little better right now, both in terms of price and liquidity.
You only have to look at how sheepish he gets when someone asks him about SOLG. He gets all uptight and there's almost a look of embarrassment.
Hi Bozi,
I am a fan of Warren. He is a pretty smart guy, and if he thought things are as gloomy here as some folks believe, he would not risk his investors money and his reputation by holding on to solg. That said, I invested in solg long before I discovered Warren on YouTube. I regard him as smart money. Yes, he has made bad calls like we all have, overall, he is a winner.
Bozi, I accept opacity has been a big problem, but I remain optimistic SC will eventually improve the situation.
I flatly refuse to accept the argument nothing is going on. I don't for one moment believe Caldwell is sitting at his desk twiddling his thumbs and wondering when it would be possible to relocate back to Canada without upsetting everyone.
Fort, for every Noront there's a Mariana Resources or a Turquoise Hill.
There's many many examples of where sub par offers are successful because of poor management in the lead up to them.
Nobody is going to say "here is a 300% premium on your 15p." Nobody.
Well, Noront example proves you wrong and that's a fact. If you can provide a fact showing lower sp results in lower asset offer price then go ahead. But at the moment, I think it's you that is searching for some credibility. I don't think there's much you can say to gain some unfortunately! ATB.
Can you see newsflow increasing Add? I can't. Go back 3 years and you'll see comms has been a regular bugbear for investors.
Some complain about the frequency of news and some complain about the level of detail being shared. We don't seem to be moving in the right direction under Scott, yet!
Er... absolutely Fort.
The fact you can't understand this tells us you're not to be taken seriously.
Bozi, it tells 'A' story, not necessarily 'The' story. We have been starved of news flow, which has led to increased speculation from a small section of private investors of a negative outcome. But the fact is it's speculation and only speculation. We have no way of knowing what's going on and no news doesn't imply bad news.
I meant 25p today not 225p. That would be nice though!
Bozi, what's the share price got to do with it? The asset is what the interested parties will be buying.
You've learned from Noront and others that share prices are irrelevant until first bid arrives.
Are you saying if SOLG were 225p today that 60p+ would be more likely than if SOLG are 15p today?
That's nonsense.
Share price of sub15p into the teeth of a strategic review following consolidation of interests tells its own story Add.
Madpunter - not completely unreasonable. 12-18 months ago I'd have agreed with you. Now... I think we're up against it as far as extracting 60p+ is concerned.
We have mining companies, financial investors, mining analysts, market commentators, government ministers and market pundits expressing their views that Cascabel will be a Tier1 mine, and yet we have a few stock punters on a financial bb speculating the asset is not viable.
Take your pick.
Sorry, it should be Bozi.
Boxi - IMHO the BoD are playing high stakes poker. However, they know what's in their hand and what it's worth. If I remember rightly, SOLG has around $100bn of metal in the ground. Therefore, a 1 - 5% takeover price (typical of non-producing juniors) would be $1- 5bn. At an exchange rate of $1 = £0.80, that equates to £800k - £4bn.
An offer at the current time of 60p per share (roughly 4x the current price) would equate to roughly £1.8bn, which is near the middle of the valuation. IMHO this would get accepted by shareholders and may not attract counter offers. However, next year if the share price dropped by 50% to around 10p, then a similar offer of four times the share price is 40p, which equates to £1.2bn. While this could be accepted by shareholders, as sentiment would be rock bottom by then, IMHO it would start a bidding war, as the major's would see plenty of value. Hence, IMHO if SOLG is to be bought out at a bargain price, the BoD are expecting a bid sooner rather than later.
Bit dicey to be putting your faith in Warren Irwin, Eloro.
He gets them wrong just like the next man.
You need to look a bit further. It's widely recognised in junior mining circles that good management can deliver good share price performance on a bad asset and bad management can ruin a good asset.
We are getting closer to the latter group every passing week. Some would argue we're already there and it would be difficult to disagree.
Everyday that passes is indeed a lost revenue day for ENSA as Ecuador gov signed (as you say) the exploitation agreement. That said, I genuinely think if a super major took Alpala on they would just rip up the SOLG PFS and start again, represent to Ecuador gov, reneg new terms blah blah blah. It helps thus far in so much that it draws a baseline under the asset as current agreement honoured etc.
Someone like Rio or BHP or FMG would want to see double the output that SOLG have factored into the PFS. They have the cash pile to make that happen. SOLG don't. But either way... all interested parties will want a phased approach as that gives them the mileage to manage risk and costs, derisk and supplement any infrastructure spend around the region with other bolt on sites like Tandy and others.
As for raising more funds... unfortunately I believe that suits Maxit and Irwin and others as they will have no shame in issuing those 100m CGP shares to themselves or their buddies at 17p again or lower. But let's face it... 100m shares is small fry anyway based on 3bln in issue and £17m would likely see out another 6 months imho. We'd have posters citing 'placing coming' abut now or over the next few months had we burned through £20m in cash on exploration. Hence the reason for 'parking' exploration until ENSA deal done.
Putting the issue of Cascabel to one side, I wonder why there hasn't been any progress of any of the other options which were to be examined by the SR?
SharketMare - IMHO the fact that SOLG has 'flagged to the market and any potential buyer when we will run out of cash' is a double edged sword. The side that's positive for SOLG is that any potential buyer will know the clock is ticking before a possible fund raise via another RSA. The big boy's won't want to lose more of the asset to Franco Nevada or other smelters. Plus the clock is also ticking on the exploitation agreement. I know there's 25 years and possibly an extension of another 25 years, but Cascabel might be viable for much longer. It's all future profits for the big boys disappearing all the time that the clock is ticking. Remember the big mining companies think in decades.
Interesting points of view, thank you all. I am holding and suspect I might have to wait until early 2024 to be vindicated. I am also braced to stop loss if any more bad news pops up!