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I'm being slightly more cagey now, because eventually I'm probably going to be wrong.
But there's nothing in the offing, imo.
I'm really not sure why that would be, but I am pretty sure.
We're not in a closed period and the directors have bought a few, but not many really. At this sort of price, if they were confident, they'd be taking loads more imo.
But as per usual it suits some to believe a bid is imminent, just like it has been for years lol.
Quady has it right. There hasn't been even the slightest hint.
Fort, this open ended strategic review is putting the for sale sign up - or listing on eBay as you'd have it - without formally doing so. We have received no bids, or no bids that the board consider worth making public. The share price has cratered. Were we to put a deadline on the process, I don't see why we'd suddenly see an offer materialise. If I was one of the handful of companies with the financial means to buy Cascabel (a cash rich major miner open to copper/gold plays in South America), I wouldn't have my hand forced by SOLG setting a deadline.
It would make more sense to just sit and wait it out, see if any of my peers bid and then counter should they try and acquire the asset at a price lower than I'm willing to pay. You can be sure that the price will fall further as the deadline approaches, too.
I still think that eventually the Chinese will make a move on this , but they've had their fingers burnt at both Mirador and San Carlos-Patanza in the country. They will want all possible guarantees that the same thing isn't going to happen for a third time at Cascabel. This means:
1) Ensuring that whoever takes over from Lasso is supportive of mining and developing Cascabel - this looks very likely
2) Ensuring that all permitting is acquired (water, tailings site) and that upon those agreements being made public, there isn't pushback from local politicians or indigenous groups (as has happened at the two other mines mentioned above)
I've never really bought PFS3 as a credible path for the company - it's what caused me to sell up a few months ago as the volte face in rhetoric told me that nothing was happening until later on this year. Turns out I was only half right, as buying back in at 14p was, in hindsight, a mistake. But here we are.
The share price has already tanked. Considering Porvenir and how elusive Ecuador mining acerage is... I'd say £300m barely covers everything on the books and that's without ENSA.
Porvenir is amongst one the top ten of discoveries in copper/gold over last ten years.
Someone always bids... stick a Breitling Watch on Ebay and list it at £100 with known value of £10k. You think it will just sit there and go for £100? Eventually market forces come into play and 'value' wins out. So someone will bid... just a question of when and how much they bid... but with 6% holding in SOLG, the Chinese stand to own a few quid by at the very least trying a low ball offer. Worst thing can happen? They get beaten by BHP or another and walk away with a nice tidy sum on their 6% holding. I can't see them being involved in SOLG for just that 6% holding gain. They are here for a reason Sharemarket... it's not be the socials.
Ben, what if no one bids though? The share price tanks and the Ecuadorians, keen to see this developed by all accounts, ask Solgold what it plans to do next?
He owns a huge portion of the company for an individual and DGR is struggling to keep the lights on. Not sure he or DGR need any more exposure here.
Back in?
Welcome to the 3 am terrors
Strategic Review Process outcome. Put the for sale sign up on Cascabel and advertise it at offers over $750M. Thats 20p or so. See what happens. Avoid this bleeding to death. Jobs for the boys. Rinse and repeat.
A cashed up explorer with good projects to explore could be worth more than Solg is now with this albatross around its neck.
They could find and build another mine by the time this is sorted out, and I bet its eventually sold at around that price too!
For perspective...todays Bought Volume is c250k less than the Directors' total purchases last week...so far...
DM, why not listen to the whole interview as i have done twice now.
Then you will be in no doubt what Scott means, no matter who is chairing the Committee...
Bob Sangha is running it, not Dan Vujic...
RK, you may well be right, but as I've mentioned before, if this is indeed the case I'm really not sure why they announced it and described it thus.
Red, if no one wants to help take this forward, we're Donald ducked
Addickt...you and I and one or two others here are very experienced in these matters and I thonk we may have misconstrued the 'Strategic Review'.
In our world it when the Board, assited as appropriste by outside advisors, sits down to determine the way forward.
What Caldwell means is the whole process which results in a sale or development of parts or the whole of Solgold, including especially Cascabel. So that includes sale or JV of any or all of the outside projects; the sale of Cascabel or indeed Solgold, etc.
It does not include the 'revised PFS' which WILL be published in Q1 and which he expects to inform the 'Strategic Review" which is in the hands of any or all of the parties in the data room.
Once any or all of the above outcomes have occurred and/or nobody buys or takes any interest in any of them, SOLG will be in a position to determine whether they will have to take Cascabel forward.
Hope this helps...
Where's Mather's director buy then?
Come on Nick... everybit counts. You can't just sit back and enjoy those freebie optiosn you awarded yourself. Get your hand in your pocket and show some support... unless of course... you can't as you'll be insider trading? Mmm. Anything going on with DGR then?
To be fair to them, they wouldn't have been able to buy before 29 September (th end of the Close Period for the Annual Results).
They have bought 1.64 million shares in a thin market and, while Twigger paid 9.9p in London, Stackhouse paid the GBP equivalent of 11.06p in Canadfa and Caldwell's all in costs were equivalent to 11.89p/share.
This illustrates the difficulties we have all had acquiring reasonable amounts.
As it happened, Twigger and Stackhouse were buying on the same day I had to pay 9.77p average for three 50k tranches...
His observation about the SR "being out of our control" supports my previous comment. Setting a strategy should be something a company determines and then puts in place the tactics to deliver it. It isn't about looking at the assets and praying someone steps in to resolve the issue. To me, this is the impression he's giving.
You're right DM...its the revised PFS in Q! + a Technical Report.
Relevant bits of the interview reproduced below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prjh454RtxE
"We call it (a joint venture or the sale process) the Strategic Review Process and we are looking at all sorts of options from joint venture or earn in on our outside exploration tenements or a concentrate takeoff of Cascabel or anything thereof and yeah it is one of our key mandates to continue to advance the Strategic Review Process.
It started in earnest right after the close of the Cornerstone transaction so that would be March...thats when we got the Data Room active and open and started to sign NDAs with various parties.
Theres a number of parties interested in the projects whether it be outside projects or Cascabel. We have signed CAs, we've had site visits, you know it continues to advance with no set timeline and a lot of interested parties have taken a look.
Revised PFS completed in Q1....("And we'll release the Technical Report at the same time, not wait the 40 days.")
"Much lower initial Capex...$1.2/1.3bn..."we'll truck the initial production rather than use the pipeline because the concentrate will be lower. it reduces the development schedule...We think that will be well received..."
The key catalysts over the next few months?
"Number 1 would be the Strategic Review...thats out of our control but like I said we're looking at all aspects of the (SR) but thats out of our control and we'll see where we go with that.... I think a key catalyst will be this phased approach
"(The Exploitation Agreement will be) signed by the Lasso Government..."
So that must be imminent.
Hope this helps...
My finger's been hovering over the buy button for the past few weeks. Should I declare this to the stock exchange?
I bought some too, could not resist the boredom. No RNS for that though...
I subscribe to the "every little bit helps" argument. At least he's not selling.
CFO bought 33500 shares, let's hope he has not overexerted himself with that amount!
This SR thing is interesting, mainly because it doesn't appear to conform to the usual definition and purpose. It's as if they don't understand the meaning of the word strategic.
You can bet your bottom dollar if an EV had caused the fire it would be front page news, strange that.
A lot of companies trying to protect the gravy train, non more so than opec+
Yes... pretty much everything has to be concluded by Q1 and dare I say it... early to mid Q1. I think some expect March 31st as likely being at very end of Q1. But half yearly report usually posted mid February is a key date as they'll likely need to prove they have 12months finance in place to get that signed off on a forward looking basis. And even SOLG can't kick that RNS down the road. Cash balance likely to be $15m level (half what it is now). $3m to $4m burn per month looks likely.
Chinese new year start Feb 9th and lasts 7 days although sometimes longer. So Mid Feb onwards... chinese back at desks, half yearly report due... SR likely and probably 100m CGP shares placed back into old CGP hands lol! At today's prices, that buys a couple of months and that's not going please auditors.
So once elections out of the way this weekend... Scott and Co have AGM coming up on them in just over 9 weeks. HY results loom 6 to 7 weeks after that and 1 to 2 weeks of that is seasonal/festive holidays.
Tick tock Scott. You had bags of time.... now you have very little time.
JG. If you read my summary of Scott's Kitco interview, he was very clear that the Strategic Review will be completed in Q1
Iceberg, I recall at the time a lot of people wanted Nick gone. Now we have lived long enough to see folks asking for him to come back because he is aligned with us. I actually voted for Nick based on the fact that he found alpala. Warren is only human like the rest of us. I don't see him as an egotist. He is rightly proud of his achievements which he has a right to be. Anyway, nothing anyone post here will diminish or tarnish my admiration for Warren. So, we will agree to disagree where Warren is concerned.
Regarding this BB being toxic, totally agree with you. Imagine someone paying NAL to be disruptive here. Not to mention folks who claim they are not invested, that we are all fools, yet solg is the only share they post on!