SolGold Share Chat (SOLG)

@zoros....seems you were right i was obviously jumping to conclusions after the recent infestation however i see felix is no more

Spotted that.
Anyone with a subscription to the MJ, care to email them and ask about where this came from?
Z

Morning rcgl2, I think this is all speculation, I haven't read anywhere that a certain company, is being put in the frame to bid for Solgold. But stories like this keep people interested. I am surprised, that they are suggesting we have longer to wait for the PFS. But Like others, will wait for next bit of news from Solgold.

A lot of the web articles seem to be written by jobbing staffers who are recycling information that we all know already. This Mining Journal article on the other hand seems to have a few more interesting nuggets in it...

"Valuestone's move followed another flurry of speculation in London that Barrick Gold was also putting a slide rule over SolGold" - I don't recall seeing much of a "flurry of speculation" about Barrick besides the usual constant thinking that an outside major could be interested. This line suggests something more substantive?

"He annoyed both Newcrest and BHP earlier this year" - has it ever actually been confirmed that BHP were annoyed? Or has CGP's constant insistence that they were annoyed just become accepted as fact? BHP said nothing publicly on the matter and NM himself said things were nowhere near as bas as was being made out.

"Last week SolGold's Australian finance director left by mutual consent after a longish tenure and the City understands he is to be replaced by a Brit." - is there some significance of having a Brit as CFO? I think Ingo is Austrian so he's obviously not keeping the role full time. Is it a specific Brit they already had lined up, or is their aim to get a Brit onboard and if so, why?

"given the closeness of the PFS early next year" - early next year? So not 2-3 weeks!

Me to. Have been invested here since Soloman Gold era, thought it was a good bet then ( just shows how much I know ! ) . Thankful to all the information shared on this BB.

Lets hope that 2020 is the year we have all been waiting for.

Welcome to all "newcomers". Please post!
[Only about Solg though!}

Incoming for the remainder of the year:
PFS (Alpala ).
CFP.
Update Porvenir. [assays for <650m. Update for >650m (PDH-20-002)]
Blance/La Hueca/Rio Amarillo update.
AGM - 17th Dec.

Z

Me too.
Been invested here for about 8 years, before ‘News’ etc came along back in those days.
Have always read but never posted, have had to sign up now.

Thanks Eish

The jungle drums are starting to beat...

ATG - read my 13:07
Z

Nice Eish thanks as always

https://www.mining-journal.com/m-amp-a/opinion/1399422/takeover-battle-for-solgold-is-%E2%80%98about-to-begin%E2%80%99?utm_source=11%2f17%2f20-12%3a53%3a22-624+-+Takeover+battle+for+SolGold+is+%27about+to+begin%27+de+Montessus+hails+new+London+gold+leader+What+now+for+Centamin%3f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11%2f17%2f20-12%3a53%3a22-624+-+Takeover+battle+for+SolGold+is+%27about+to+begin%27%3b+de+Montessus+hails+new+London+gold+leader%3b+What+now+for+Centamin%3f&utm_term=Takeover+battle+for+SolGold+is+%27about+to+begin%27+de+Montessus+hails+new+London+gold+leader+What+now+for+Centamin%3f&utm_content=4895&gator_td=b6r%2fOoT4Kj75ESDXLOGshTVLK1Hh8pefdoGl7YIwFfgWKCw1xU4QVwYiW5F6DSoGtYFAfN%2bSLKb%2bd6pj0eum5fNdelso5kBPm%2fZjK%2fA5HSHAXlvM5FczjnBwQ4ZadUkf5CvMmjw4C6oSa0gXilvEv0MNKEZJGrkWyhyEFYY09yC75qXXasvf4Vtrmdt%2btZWXtzsqT8W%2bsp2DamQUjsUvvpX%2bcy5RFBseNqmO%2fler0pZ0xV0JpkqREqpk6LoaehH2s2vLdI%2fY%2fp%2bH5uYLcQA%2bT5lOHDOeSr9P8wQyML1nDoULDMkmHvO%2bDFXNoHK250mM
Sorry if posted before!

Dlwright
A very good first post- welcome.

Flood board with newbies.
Tell soon enough.

Hi Dlwright, similar here I've just signed up due to the changes as well after lurking for a long time. I'm in a similar boat, looking forward to seeing how this progresses.

I've enjoyed reading this forum so far - some good stuff among the drivel that seems to make its way to the surface semi-regularly.

Hello, as LSE has made everyone register to read this board now, I thought I may as well introduce myself.

Can’t call myself an investor, but I am invested here. Pretty small fry compared to most regular posters, but my little piece of the action is still significant for me.

Main reason I’ve piped up now is to thank everyone for putting in the time to gain knowledge on SOLG, and for sharing it with the rest of us. Almost everything I know about this share I have picked up on here over the years. And like quite a few, I’ve been waiting a long time for events to come to a head, as it would appear they are about to soon.

I am not the resident infestor with multiple aliases, I promise. And I suspect there are hundreds more like me out there, just watching and following, with a small stake in the game and our fingers firmly crossed.

Good luck all!

Well done Z, thank you.

Zoros, the only reason the world tolerates the Chinese (government), rather than sanction the H out of them, is because they are powerful. Otherwise, they'd have got the treatment that they deserve, long ago.

This puts things in perspective
https://www.businessinsider.com/racing-pigeon-sold-at-auction-record-19-million-chinese-buyer-2020-11?r=US&IR=T

Sorry...should read "would surely have to be in three figures..."

Mather, who owns 4.35% himself, and 9.85% indirectly through DGR, said he was against issuing "a bunch of cheap equity" and paving the way for BHP and Newcrest's to dilute small shareholders, and allowing them to gradually creep towards control of SolGold.

In an action-packed 2020, Mather also launched an unsuccessful bid for Canadian-listed Cornerstone which holds 15% of the Cascabel concession, home to Alpala. Cornerstone retaliated, raising corporate governance issues linked to board members who, historically, have had close ties with Mather; and the payment of options to non-executive directors in breach of the UK corporate governance code of best practice.

Cornerstone had threatened to call an emergency meeting to oust the entire SolGold board, but Mather has cut across them by revamping the board himself, appointing new non-execs, a new chairman, and several women who today make up 25% of the top tier of management.

Last week SolGold's Australian finance director left by mutual consent after a longish tenure and the City understands he is to be replaced by a Brit. Mather said in August he would step down from a number of other listed company boards on which he currently sits. The general feeling here is Mather has outmanoeuvred Cornerstone and that no EGM will take place.

Observers have pointed out Alpala is the largest, highest grade, deliverable copper project in a listed junior, so given the closeness of the PFS early next year, a battle royal is brewing. "It's about to begin, although one assumes if BHP wants it, BHP gets it," said one broker.

Few would disagree, although the timing is a moot point.

For Mather, a sale would be another feather in the hat of someone who has been involved in the development of 14 different resource companies, nine of which have been taken over, delivering A$5.7 billion in cash to their shareholders.

SolGold, however, could be the biggest coup Mather has pulled off to date, although how it all ends is difficult to predict.

Z

I still think BHP's involvement is more likely in a JV for Alpala, otherwise why the vacuum since the handcuffs came off...surely they're risking a flood of good news and a higher SP before any opening bid which others have suggested would have to be at least 50% above the SP based on past history...?

We can all get carried away with dreams of the ultimate SP. I've previously stated a minimum in the range 125/200p for the exit price depending on wider market circumstances and any degree of competition. That is for now and would increase the closer we get to DFS and then production...

Certainly getting through to production should see the price very much higher than now..

Crosby Capital offered $1.15, a 21% premium to Medusa Mining's 12 month low closing price on 18 Sept; the SP spiked to $1.05 but has since fallen back to $0.82...

Endeavour offered 126.27p (13% premium) in Dec 2019; the price spiked to 129p before CEY beat them off in Feb 2020

Recent history suggests a premium of 38-54%;

https://www.northernminer.com/stock-markets-investing/how-to-fish-for-profits-in-takeover-targets/1002463269/

However, in 2016, Seabridge Gold bought Snip Gold at a 115% premium to the 30-day VWAP;

In 2018, First Majestic took Primero over at a whopping 200% premium to the 20-day VWAP.

In 2017, Sandstorm Gold took over Mariana Resources at an 88% premium over the 20-day VWAP

Randgold shares rose 45% in the 2 months after Barrick announced their bid;

Goldcorp rose c60% by the time Newmont completed its acquisition.

One thing to note is that in several of these cases the SP appears to have been suppressed prior to the announcement of a bid.

So what to conclude:

1 That a likely bid now would come at no higher than 55p (the SP currently sits around the 20 day VWAP), unless

2 It is contested, or

3 In anticipation of a contest, it is a 'knockout bid' which would surely have to be in six figures...

So the question is, with at least two 'Tier 1s', how special is SOLG...? 200% only gives c100p...

AIMO as usual...

(Courtesy Sirmooni)

Abid could come after publication shortly of a long-awaited prefeasibility study for Alpala which is forecast to cost up to US$2.8 billion to build, with first production slated for 2025. Returns are forecast at up to 27%.

BHP and Newcrest already have stakes of about 13% each in SolGold - the largest tenement holder in Ecuador where it owns 75 exploration concessions on the Andean copper belt.

The takeover plot thickened on Friday when the Chinese joined the fray after SolGold CEO Nick Mather announced a share placement to raise $5 million from Beijing-based Valuestone Investors, a private equity fund backed by Jiangxi Copper. What better way to ratchet up future bid tension?

Perhaps Mather will follow in the mode established by that other mining entrepreneur, Robert Friedland, and we could see more Chinese involvement in SolGold, perhaps in a JV, perhaps in close partnership providing bundles of capital (perhaps, even, via a ridiculously high offer that even Mather would find difficult to defend). After all, we know when the Chinese want something badly enough they'll pay whatever it takes to get it.

Valuestone's move followed another flurry of speculation in London that Barrick Gold was also putting a slide rule over SolGold, which is a spin out from ASX-listed DGR Global where Mather is managing director and the founder.

So, there we have it - BHP, Newcrest, Jiangxi and Barrick, all said to be circling, ready to bite Mather's hand off for properties that some reckon could one day be home to half a dozen Escondidas.

But first they must persuade Mather to sell and that won't be easy. He's holding out for top dollar, and has said SolGold is quite prepared to develop Alpala, and other assets the group controls in Ecuador, on its own.

Mather is confident lenders and offtakers will provide finance on the basis of the project's value, estimated at $4.3 billion (£3.2 billion), not on the basis of SolGold's market cap of just £700 million.

In the interim, the pugnacious Mather is not afraid to ruffle feathers. "We are setting things up to be able to do this for ourselves. Andrew Forrest set up Fortescue to do it himself. He was treated with disrespect and contempt by the majors," he told Mining Journal.

"Until recently, majors have viewed juniors as short-term custodians of major's assets. We don't view it that way; it's our asset. If they want it, they have to pay a fair price for it."

Certainly, Mather is prepared to defy the majors. He annoyed both Newcrest and BHP earlier this year when he raised $100 million via a streaming deal with Franco Nevada, rather than plumping for an equity raise. Newcrest withdrew its board representative in protest arguing the "expensive" debt deal was more pricey than equity and against shareholder interests. (cont'd)..

Addickt - my apologies for not highlighting it was u who educated me about a CFP.
Thanks once again.
Might it be worthwhile you paraphrasing exactly what a CFP might entail, so as to remind others exactly what we might expect?
Z

Zoros, like a bad smell...he'll return.

Unfortunately.

zoros, I answered that question for you the other day. The position hasn't changed...nor will it.