We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Good info and a logical argument, Bozi!!We're stuffed if the numbers don't add up, not imaginary numbers or the measurement parameters higher/lower than what should be! let's hope the proposal is watertight and believable, otherwise a small time PI like me is STUFFED!
But, firmly still believe in this possible projext and that we have not yet drilled the best Porphery spike! At Escondida they had many false dawns!
I wouldn't worry about metal prices or inflation as any partner or buyer will simply look past that especially when every cat and dog out there is calling for Copper to do cartwheels higher in next few years.
What matters most is that the phase 1 (new PFS) is viable for smaller pocketed players thus opening the door to more parties and making life more uncomfortable for the Super majors on the sidelines or chinese etc. It's simply a method to extract a bid or strengthen ones poker hand. At the moment... A $3bln capex is beyond SOLG and anyone that isn't chinese gov or a super major.
The key exercise here is to show a nice juicey low hanging fruit phase 1 development opportunity. FWIIW... this is straight out of the chinese M&A copy book as they like to do things on smaller scale but with fast return etc. Wouldn not surprise me one bit if this is being done as a request by the chinese as they have been apparnetly talking with SOLG since Porvenir days and the 32p placing.
Time is ticking and the sweet spot for metal prices likely in 2 years, so even a smallscale mine is going to take 2 years before it's producing based on capex budget of $1bln. As the clock ticks... the sweet spot moves and interested parties will want to be exporting gold/copper in 2026 rather than 2027 or 2028. By 2028... the super majors might have a few mines up and running. But in 2026, supply is going to be as tight as needalifes ahole after massiveray has been up there.
'Genuine holders' here wouldn't want to see anyone here losing money for obvious reasons.
Orthrncopper with Stackhouse, Caldwell and Twigger purchasing over 1.6m shares between them in Q4 last year, at far higher prices, suggests to me that the Directors believe that they can develop the asset with a lower cost entry. $1-1.3bn would be my guess. We'll soon know either way.
If we do we do if we don’t we don’t and just put it down to bad judgment only thing warming me up Ona cold winters day is the lovely glow of knowing that needy will be losing a small fortune 😂😂😂
Not so clever now are you ? 😉
If the numbers are not clear and beyond question with regard to an improved IRR, it’s not necessarily game over… as the asset is still there, but I think we slide down any list of priority when it comes to M&A or JVs with potential suitors if they can make quicker profits, easier elsewhere.
It’s fair to say WE HOPE the study will clearly show that our asset can be developed in stages… but we don’t know that yet. This will be our 3rd attempt to convince, unequivocally, the mining world that it can be done economically..
But we don’t have the numbers yet to prove it… and numbers that will clearly stand up to close scrutiny when analysed at a granular level, by mining experts.
I’ve mentioned before, that if Solgold are seen to be using higher metal prices, or lower grade cut offs to help improve the IRR value, we are in trouble.
When the study is eventually released I will be scanning it for those details before going back to read its finer contents..
With regard to lower capex, I don’t expect them to get it down to circa 1 Billion.. inflation will have seen to that.. but anywhere below 2 would be a result for a multigenerational mine in my opinion.
So Anon, if nothing is likely to be on the table in the foreseeable, should we be asking Jiangxi why they've invested in a company that is going broke later this year without further funding?
It's really very easy to see what has happened here.
The CGP boys hammered Nick and Co for years for perceived bad management of the company. They thought they could do a better job.
They engineered the merger and clearly fancied selling the company when the merger completed. Scott took the reins and Bob made his bullish comments.
They then got their feet under the table and realised this wasn't going to be as straightforward as they thought. Scott, Bob and Warren all had to taper down their outlook for the company.
Here we are.
I expect that all three names known that a robust PFS update and an amended IPA open the doors back up on this thing. That's what Scott has to get done. It's that simple.
With those two questions answered Cascabel moves closer to turnkey project status and the book is then open for best proposals. All of the big boys will have a decision to make. Hold em or fold em.
The first of those questions is due to be answered in the next 4 weeks. Time is now ticking on and any read that nothing is going to happen only holds water if the company is thwarted by a government putting other fires out
Bozi, on the basisi that I think the market is thoroughly sick and tired of SOLG.
I'm also totally convinced that the big boys aren't currently in the slightest bit interested in buying it yet, either.
Quady's fundraising from some form of group is more the way I think this will go because it would perfectly expain why Scott hasn't done some form of a deal.
There's nothing on the table and not likely to be, imo, for all Scott's bluster. Irwin has realised to, again imo.
I really hope I'm wrong, but 100% doubt it.
Under 4 weeks now until PFS based on Scott's guidance of 'early Q1'.
Could be here next week. I suspect they'll want it out before the MD&A as the latter (for previous Q) might give them the game away a bit.
Agree... but ultimately it's all about IRR. That simply has to be north of 22%... and probably north of 25% if based on smaller mine, shorter development period/cash back etc.
The IRR is what matters to key funders and key investors. Some will not touch miners with IRR's sub 20%. The problem for SOLG has always been inflation near term. Higher rates or cost of finance drops that IRR. So all efforts to reduce capex are largely offset by rising finance costs. That said... most know that rates will drop and metal prices will rise. So there's a sweet spot in the middle for investors. Finally the second major importance of dropping the capex and phasing the development is that you no longer need to have Super majors or Chinese involved etc. You can get someone like Franco to stump up $500m and finance the other $500m through CB's or partner deals. $1bln finance package not hard based on the asset potential. You will see likes of Endeavour Mining and others with MK caps of $1bln ish suddenly able to look at being partners or buying in. Ultimately, if a deal witha consortium materialised for phase 1 and capex of $1bln, then the super majors or chinese have to act. They simply cannot allow that deal to happen or they lose the asset for good.
So post PFS and capex of $1bln, SOLG should enter into discussions with multiple parties that are no longer deep pocketed mining firms... but more dynamic players, nimble with less pressure from shareholders etc and corporate sluggishness that comes with BHP et al. You could see FMG get involved but through Wyloo. A deal based on $1bln capex suddenly becomes a real possibility... at the moment a deal based on $3bln+ capex has about a handful of player capable of biting and all are just sitting on their hands right now. So we are led to believe!
Historically, SOLG has always risen at least 100% in shareprice leading up to a PFS news release. We had 18p move to 41p on last PFS. So 8p to 16p should be a doddle. After that, the market can be less sure of a deal NOT happening and hence needs to start pricing in some of that resource value. Would not surprise me to see Scott get a 14p or 15p 157m share placement away if or when sp doubles That would raise another $25m and give SOLG over 12 months finance head room which includes the $5m commitment per year for licence 60 odd licence blocks. All guesses... so lets see what happens.
I found this article a while ago and for me, nailed why PFS.2.0 is required, especially in a higher interest rate environment. "It's all about margins"...
https://independentspeculator.com/cornerstone-seabridge-ecuador-area-plays-and-valuations
enjoy. C
On what basis Anon?
The new study is going to show how Cascabel can be developed in stages. The focus will therefore be on getting early production to fund later stages and then move into pure profit.
This, with an amended IPA is a major catalyst for the stock in 2024. A cooperative market will be required and an easing of political tensions in-country and those are admittedly in the balance.
There wasn't much hope for us at the last PFS, but if there's no hope for us now at 7/8p with $2000 gold and $3.60 copper then when will there be?
I'm also expecting this to be between 12-16p on the PFS. Once volume returns I see an update trajectory leading up to the strategic review. If Scott us to be believed we should get positive news in the next couple of weeks. Just my opinion.
I'm not sure even a good new study will lead to this doubling :-(
DBW, I saw Warren's response:
"It's math, I am not heavily involved because the stock got crushed, so my exposure is considerably less. It is super cheap and an awesome deposit. Exploration ground is exceptional. Cartel action in Ecuador adds some uncertainty near term. Hopefully the matter will settle down. Chinese most likely buyers. Blue chip partners with BHP, Newmont and Jiangxi. New study out soon which should dramatically drop the CAPX."
Certainly backs up my observation that Warren isn't happy because he watched his heavily involved position got hammered to become actively involved.
Interesting comments from Irwin yesterday re Solg
Tiger.... what, in your opinion, will be the reason for the short term 100% increase here?
Thanks for that tiger. Does that mean that you are selling at 14p or 16p?
14-16p is the short term target. Be patient guys
Some good news would be great for a change or failing that just a week or two of no bad news!
Poor chap!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-68014040
Just a reminder, to those who hang onto every wishfull thinking unfactuall post.
"To say that we are closer to victory today is to believe, in the face of evidence, the optimists who have been wrong in the past."
Stack. Ref your post about adikt theory's.
Have you noticed also with his theorys, how they always crop up to counter anything negative.
His assumptions on irwin being a point in question.
Can you believe that the idiot tinyray is concerned about me and continues to troll me for no reason other than jealousy 😂😂😂
Silly t*at responds to me on twatter thought because I threatened to ruin his thread with Irwin
Take no notice of these virtue signalling w⚓️a, they’re all peeping from behind the curtains constantly