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CD -18:22 - that is SOLG gospel. Nothing else needs to be said.
110% nailed it.
I really dont think they are losing to much sleep about how much they will pay. They are one of the biggest companies quoted in london.
GSK, a similar sized company,bought a smallish american company last year for €5 b.
The shareholders hardly battered an eyelid. It was just regarded as a great company with very few comments about the price.
Remember it's the company's money, not their money.
I think we are reading to much into the price. I think when all the dust settles and everything comes out in the wash, it will be more about strategy rather than how much they had to pay. If someone else bids ,they would soon put their money on the table to counter.
Problem is fair value is an upward moving target.
I still dont buy the argument that a major would not pay fair value. There is benefit in them waiting.
I don't think Ecuador would have any hesitation in the slightest about selling to the Chinese.
There is no evidence that BHP have been buying more shares.
Any big buying and the market would been to be informed
Novice and Monte, you both see what I see.
This is the power of a diverse book.
Some on here add up BHP, NCM and CGP, and say they are against us.
But they wouldn't sell up cheap.
They are in competition.
Remember NCM have publicly stated they want to add, so they won't be selling at any price, as they are thinking long term and want this to go to production.
big money involved, so not surprised a tough poker game under way. Alpala could cost $4bln+. Acquisition of SOLG could cost $3bln or more. It's easy for a major to fund itself these days but BHP as an example has been focussed on reducing debt and are now sub $10bln in debt. Hence, they could find 40%+ of that being added in with a SOLG takeover and ensuing costs.
SOLG's current market cap is around $1bln ish, so bagging the lot for $2bln is better than paying $3bln. The more shares BHP and co can get at sub 40p levels the better for them. Could knock off $300m to $400m further down the line.
Greater powers out there right now working hard to freeze the chinese out of almost everything. Politically, pressure could be placed on the soon to become Ecuador president to do a deal with a non chinese firm eg BHP etc and in return a certain super power will help the out with some other bits. mmm.
Copper and gold are going to be vital in the coming years and the volatility in leading regions/countries like Chile and Venezuela and so on is making the super major miner lives a misery. They want a new region in their folios big time.
Ok tell me something,
What do Newcrest and cornerstone stand to gain by BHP getting the their shares cheap?
Are you saying cornerstone are going to production with them?
Q, they HAVE to absolutely take that position as this is now a game of poker between 3 or 4 parties and not showing your hand too early comes to mind. I'm sure you could cut the atmosphere with a knife when they are all in the same room or zoom meeting as is now the norm!
Novice they did it for the reasons stated in the RNS.
They are changing from an explorer to a producer.
They made that clear.
The Bod consists of the governance and expertise required to build and go into production.
They have now stated that the new CEO will have construction experience in block cave mining.
The direction and intent is clear .
I'm not sure Nick was outwitted as that implies some kind of intelligence and actually what seems to have happened is more akin to muscle than brain power. If you tally up the CGP SOLG shareholding, add in NCM and BHP, I think you get around 34% ish.
I can't remember the exact analysis on this but do recall a poster doing a very could summary of the main holders and they weights they carried in votes.
The conclusion was (I believe) that Blackrock were the ones that sided with the motley crew cgp, ncm and bhp. In my opinion blackrock are as flaky as some pi's on here and are probably more than happy to take 50p+ tomorrow.
If you assume the motley crew control 35% of share capital, then blackrock gets them just past 41%. That's a sizable total and doesn't take more than a minor 4% swing on the pi or fund managers front to see it past 51%. I think BHP have options that could see them add a further 4%+. So perhaps that's 55%+ in the bag. If we speculate and say there at at least 5%+ share capital in flaky retail hands, then if BHP offered 50p+ for the lot would taht get them 60%+ assuming NCM and concert party etc?
I think 75% makes it conditional but can't be sure on that.
I guess what I am saying is, it's vital that BHP and NCM do not get more of an equity share in SOLG which is why NM opted for the Franco deal rather than blowing $100m of shares at 21p to ncm and bhp gifting them greater stakes
Outwitted? No. More like ganged up on by a bunch of bullies who want this company on the cheap. Why wouldn't they? That's business for you. Tough world and all that. But why pay $3bln when you can pay $2bln?
I don't think NM had any choice. To get the best for shareholders, he needed to keep NCM and BHP's ownership from swelling higher and thus gifting them control.
He suffered for it. He lost his job.
Deal making is tough. 90% full of bluffs. But the chinese 32p placing wasn't a bluff and that's our only hope for top dollar imho so perhaps NM has been outwitted at all.
I spoke to them last night and they confirmed details of all regional projects would be included in quarterlies . They added this in no way meant that other drilling results would not be released in the meantime.... pretty clear there’s plenty to come here.
Let’s be honest the “ take it to production “ mantra is wearing thin now and they’ve simply come to realise this is no longer an option, within a year 2025 has slipped to 2027 and I don’t believe there’s a cat’s chance in hell they’d get anywhere close .
Sense appears to have finally taken over .
Q, I'm clearly expressing my thoughts from this point onwards as I have also been here coming up for 5+ years. Not withstanding the "removal" of Nick has shown that certain parties/investors want a brisk resolution, otherwise why do it.
OK Fastjet as you love a good conspiracy theory, I will give you one.
We have been here since 2006, that's 15 years now.
Every communication goes out into space, and travels at the speed of light.
Andromeda is only 2.5 billon light years away.
I understand that as a Galaxy they have a Copper shortage.
Expect a bid in 2.5 billion years after we build it.
OK that's my take and a lot more sensible than some on here.
All the best.
Does anyone else think the reason for no drill results rns' and no Franco funding uptake is to do with another strategy being on the table??
Is there murmurs of an incoming bid and the drill results will be released to bolster the defences to up the price??
I know Dbw had that video call with Eliza and it was mentioned they were compounding the drill results but no Franco funding also seems a strange coincidence .
I love a good conspiracy theory!
Enjoy your evening all.
Hi Novice I say this is long term, as I have been here for 8 years, and since day one, people have been telling me that they wouldn't want to be out over the weekend, or a sell is imminent.
If I believed them I would have sold up ages ago.
I have an understanding of this share, like others on here, that we have to listen to what is being said by the company.
If the company changes their position, I will reassess mine, and act accordingly.
Not sure how you can be sure this is not short term as you say Q. I believe this will be resolved fairly quickly now that the main man has been pushed aside. Offer a great Knock out offer pretty soon even as soon as Monday otherwise what was the point in driving the result of the AGM. We know that the longer the big interested companies wait the higher the in ground value and ultimately a higher take out price.
I agree Novice, whatever happens, this is not a short term share.
I do feel many will fall by the way, having gotten this far.
I think I should temper this by saying there us no such thing as a safe bet.
I always say, just understand why you personally are invested.
Too many on here, getting upset because the company won't change direction to support them.
All the best.
That's the point im making!
BHP and co are not buying in the market. Why would the sp be going up. I think someone on here mentioned the other day. All small pi's interested in this share have already loaded up.
This will fly on any rumour of a bid but not now.
Not quite Monte, the low interest doesn't equate to how interested the majors are in us, as they are not buying or selling.
What volume does is get the share price to a sensible level.
Too much to go into on this forum, but a basic explanation is more volume equates to more trades, and traders will be more active, that on it's own doesn't change the share price, but a level arises that is representative of the company position because the spread becomes narrow, and positions are taken more often, even by the traders.
Ok Q, however the recent result of the AGM told us otherwise and appears that although this would ultimately deliver the best return clearly the majority don't have the patience or stomach to wait. In particular the big i i want to pay as little as possible. Like a game of poker Nick has unfortunately been outwitted for now, however reasonable value will be realised. Otherwise why bother doing the exploration ??? The majors need the minnows and vice versa... Can only see upside from here. Jiggery-pokery witchcraft going on with this stock at the moment. Hold tight
"NM was an impediment to the obvious and sensible strategy, and his removal (sorry, 'retirement') has removed the blockage."
Has it really removed the blockage. NM continues till March and thereafter as NED so still a back seat driver.
Does the low volume in trading necessarily equate to majors not being interested?
Nick once mentioned years ago around 10 big companies had been to visit Alpala. He did not mention names
I was invested in MARL a few years back. They were sold to sandstorm a few months after their first PEA and no one had ever heard of them. They were not on the share register at the time.
Was it Buffet who said the shock market is a weighting machine not a value machine . The mms move this share 10% on low volume. Is the share price a true reflection of what is really going on?
OK Monte, that's not true.
After the PEA we have a NPV on Alpala alone of 3.3 billion pounds.
That at full value is above 1.50 pounds a share.
So ask yourself, why are we not even at 75 pence now.
It doesn't work that way.
I reckon the PFS will put us over 4.2 billion pounds that is just over 2 pounds a share.
I believe we will be over 5 billion pounds on PFS.
Remember this is just for Alpala alone, that means we give everything else away for nothing.
So even 2 pounds a share, is selling cheap.
But it doesn't matter, as we have no volume on daily trades, so no interest in us.
Only way to extract value is too build Alpala, and as we construct Alpala, that means less risk as we continue to construct, that way we get value.
Why would the NAV prevent a fair price being payed now, if the future metal value is in excess of 50 B