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Can anyone remember how much Progress Rail is contacted to pay out?
I base investments on net present value of future cash flows. Past results are only interesting to me if they help project future results. In the case of pre-revenue businesses, past results have limited value to me.
The Auto business is essentially pre-revenue. Yes I know it has had some revenue already but not the main recurring revenue from mass roll-out. Now we have the roll out coming up, demonstrated best by the launch apparently into the Ford F150, the USA's biggest selling car.
Last year's results will tell us nothing about the future of auto sales or margins. Zero. Zilch. So, for the auto business, last year's performance is next to useless in telling me about the future of that business.
Most SEE investors are here for the auto business but, of course, there are other existing businesses. For those businesses, we already have the H1 results. H2 results will be so clouded by Covid-19 that it will be impossible to pick out from them what is one-off and what can be used to help inform projections for the future. So the full year results will be next to useless in telling me about the future of those businesses.
Agree that it will be useful to be updated on the cash balance but unless it is a long way below SEE2020's A$27m, I won't be very interested.
I don't want to hear that any H2 P&L figures "proves management ability" or "disproves management ability". If most of their concentration was on the peanuts in the P&L in H2 FY 2020, they would have been concentrating on the wrong thing.
I hope that management were concentrating on delivering above expectations for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, helping to lay the groundwork for massive repeat business in the future.
Selling to the Japans OEMs involves an awful lot of legwork and relationship building. I hope they have been concentrating on laying the groundwork with Toyota and others.
I hope they have been concentrating on developing the relationship with VW.
I really couldn't give a *rude word* on 5,000 more or less fleet installs last year and I really hope that is not where the focus of the management has been at this critical time in the formation of the auto business.
Cheers Terry. Pretty much agree with that and also Seeing2020. Key figure is cash that we all hope will be enough to finally see through to profit. I'd like to think cash burn would be significantly less than H1 and I hope revenues and connection are better than expected. See guidance was originally 27-30k so par for me would be in the region of 23.5k. I suspect it will be less though. Be nice for a surprise to the upside for once. The technology is superb but management still has a lot to prove imo. The opportunity is massive now with the new regs.
For what theyโre worth, my best guesses on revenues and cash:
Auto A$15mil (including A$8mil upfront licensing payment)
Fleet/Offroad A$27.5mil (total installations between 23,000 and 23,500)
Negligible from Aviation and Scientific Advancements
Total Revenue A$42.5mil
Leaving A$37mil Cash
I'm with SeeingTom on this one, for year ending 30th June we have removed guidance (like most other companies) , so if you are investing here its for the auto revenues that flow from FY21.
The one number that is important for me is cash, 31st Dec was A$47m, Cenkos forecast is A$32m for year ending 30th June 2020. I will be happy if we are within A$5m of the Cenkos number, so anything A$27m+ and that's fine.
Bydna
Its a tricky one to analyse when you add in the following :-
1. Had 2 months of normal trading before Covid in March--so 4 months mostly affected
2. May cost cutting came in so 2 months of benefits-- I believe was described as A$12 million saving with 1/3rd in FY19/20
3. Australia Govt help for 2 months on staff costs in that FY.
4. $5 million Qualcomm but not all paid in that FY i think i read somewhere? So how much paid upto June20?
So my guess is cash $35-40 million in bank? Fleet units 22-23,000 units installed.
1st half of this FY we have :-
1. Some/most of $8 million cost saving
2. Balance of Qualcomm
3. Govt help only planned to Sept but like UK Furlough could get extended.
So realistically we could be looking at $35 mil + in bank and cash burn of $10-12 million in 1st half of current FY?
Fag packet accounting but 5th Aug we will find out. But considering in my businesses in Dubai & UK not sent an invoice out for 5 months, things dont look too bad.
We are not buying last year's performance so the results are almost irrelevant. We are buying the future profit from Ford, Mercedes, BMW, GM contracts etc. The most important information we'll be looking out for in any announcement is confirmation of cars launched/launching and progress on further contracts.
Longtime holder of See and lurker of this board. Anyone got any educated guesstimates of figures for full year to end June? Last year we had an update at August 1st so assume similar this year.
Target was A$45-50m pre Covid. At H1 revenue was 15.8m, Guardian connection 20.5k and cash 47.3m. End of June 19 cash was 64.3m so assume cash is at least 30m based on burn rate of H1. Hopefully more towards 40m. What would now be deemed a good set of results? I would hope they achieve full year revenues greater than last year still so more than 32m. I've not seen the Cenkos note but have little faith their numbers will be all that accurate anyway. I personally think See would have failed to hit their targets even without covid based on the low H1 numbers.