Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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K & TiL - considering the super 7 are divesting $bn’s of assets and we have ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity to grow our hydrocarbon and renewable footprint in Africa, it seeks like a bloody hard job in finding the deals we want and trust. Like you say, with all this networking going on, surely something has to come to fruition at some point - and hopefully soon.
On another note, and i have no idea how this impacts our ‘imminent’ re-finance of Accugas debt:-
ABUJA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Nigeria's naira hit a record low of 1,100 per dollar on the black market on Wednesday, online platform abokiFX showed, a day after the currency hit a new low on the official market due to persistent dollar shortages.
The naira has been in freefall on the unofficial market, where it trades freely, which worsened after currency restrictions were lifted on the official market.
The unit fell to a record low of 980 naira to the dollar on the official market on Tuesday.
The central bank has said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, after last week ending an eight-year ban on some items that were restricted from accessing dollars on the official market.
Last month, the currency slid past 1,000 naira per dollar on the black market and continued to weaken as excess dollar demand is funnelled into the informal market from the official market.
And finally a FYI:-
N'DJAMENA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Chad's defence minister and the government's general secretary resigned on Wednesday, an administration spokesman said, after two separate sex tapes purporting to show the men were shared widely on social media.
Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo accepted the resignations of defence minister Daoud Yaya Brahim and the government's general secretary Haliki Choua Mahamat, Kebzabo's spokesman said in a statement, without giving further details.
The videos, which were circulated on Sunday and Monday, purportedly showed the men engaging in intimate acts with other people. Reuters could not independently verify the material and was not immediately able to reach either man for comment.
Sex scandals are rare in Chad, a mostly Muslim country with conservative social morals.
Thanks TiL. At some point all of this is going to come to fruition!!
Komakino - Savannah is also at 3rd Morocco Oil & Gas Summit and Exhibition next week. Yacine Wafy presenting - https://www.in-vr.co/morocco-oilandgas
Seems like they are are probably interested in North Africa as well..................
Https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/media-invited-to-attend-libya-energy-economic-summit-noxdbz7g
Energy Capital&Power (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) extends an official invitation to energy and general news media to participate at the second edition of the Libya Energy&Economic Summit – scheduled for November 8-9 in Tripoli’s Rixos Convention Centre. Media will have the opportunity to be at the center of this historic summit.
In partnership with the Office of the Prime Minister and with the support of the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the National Oil Corporation (NOC), this historic summit is poised to bring together leaders and participants from the energy, finance, trading and infrastructure sectors. The 2023 event follows the resounding success of its inaugural edition in 2021, which marked a historic milestone as the first major energy investment event held in Tripoli in a decade. Media representatives are invited to cover this second edition, one that promises to shape the future of Libya's energy landscape.
The two-day program features an official reception on November 8 with keynotes delivered from dignitaries as well as strategic panel discussions and presentations across two stages on November 9. The reception and summit feature keynotes from Libyan leaders including Abdulhamid M. Al Dabiba, Prime Minister of the State of Libya; Farhat Omar Bengdara, Chairman of the NOC; and Mohamed Oun, Minister of Oil and Gas of Libya.
International invited digitaries include Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the Republic of Italy; Robert Abela, Prime Minister of the Republic of Malta; and Alparsian Bayraktar, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey.
The Libya Energy&Economic Summit 2023 is proud to work with sponsors TotalEnergies, BGN, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, Savannah Energy, OMV and more, and with official supporters Renewable Energy Association of Libya, AmCham Libya, Libyan British Business Association, U.S.-Libya Business Association, African Energy Chamber, and Rystad Energy.
Was about to caution your optimism even though I sense its a bit "tongue in cheek", but at least you seem a bit more relaxed than you were a few weeks back after the publication of earnings.
Good luck to all, and I sincerely hope our patience is rewarded.
“Savannah intend to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023.“
So if the deal were to close on 15th Dec, it could be 100 weeks of economic interest to SAVE if the effective date was 1/1/2021. As we know the purchase price was stated as up to $1,250m and we are hoping that a decent chunk of that will be paid post deal closure from future production. Obviously we would all like this number to be as high as possible but I’m sure Petronas will want a reasonable amount of cash (debt to ourselves) in order that we take our own fair share of risk in the deal, especially with the ongoing unrest in Sudan and possible threat to the export pipeline.
So let’s say we managed to agree $300m from future production, it would leave $950m, minus the economic interest calculation for the 100 week period. Over the last 100 weeks, I would guess that Brent has taveraged somewhere around $90 and I am assuming average daily production of 40k (I would hope a worst case number). Now if we were to be credited with $30 per barrel we would see a reduction from the $950m of $840m (100 weeks x 7 days x 40,000boepd x $30) leaving us with only $110m of debt.
If the conservative daily production number or $30 / barrel were to be slightly higher, we would clear the $950m in full.
These numbers seem a bit too good to be true, so I’d appreciate anybody on here marking my homework and commenting accordingly.
Just over 8.5 weeks to go…anybody thinking of arranging the £1 Christmas Party - PMSL
Thank you, JD; appreciated.
Let’s hope that Governments looking to award us contracts take all this great work we are doing into consideration when compared to our peers and sign on the dotted line. We know that the super 7 looking to divest assets take this seriously when selling to juniors, so we need to have all our sustainability ducks lines up (which we have in spades and some) but it’s the likes of Kiir and his ministers who need to value this stuff when making their final decisions and getting their Mont Blanc fountain pens out:-
#Savannah is delighted to announce that we have been shortlisted in the upcoming 2023 @IRSocietyUK Best Practice Awards for the ‘Best Communication of Sustainability’! The awards will be held on 21 November 2023 in London.
This award recognises year-round continued communications with investors and stakeholders, setting out the way that a company approaches the identification, assessment and management of sustainability-related opportunities, risks and performance, and, ultimately, how this underpins a company’s long-term resilience and sustainable growth. We are pleased to be recognised for our integrated approach to sustainability communications, focusing on our corporate purpose of delivering ‘#ProjectsthatMatter’ and underpinning our efforts to address energy poverty in Africa through both hydrocarbon AND renewable energy.
Read more about our sustainability.
2022 Sustainability Report bit.ly/3JLZYsn
2022 Savannah Energy TCFD Report bit.ly/3Qt2Fmx
2022 Savannah Energy SASB Report bit.ly/3Qf28Ep
#Sustainability
#BestPracticeAwards2023
#ProjectsthatMatter
Many thanks Rocky; and thanks for comments JDC.
Public info seems to indicate optimism around Nigeria & friends in the know say Naira / $ exchanges becoming a little more orderly if still a waiting game - both of which one imagines is constructive to refi, or in absence thereof allows for repayment month by month (with some months delay in swapping currencies) to see debt reduce.
Share JDC’s concern around Moscow protagonist(s) but hope Petronas stay true to their SPA agreement.
Nothing much to add - watching & waiting.
CYB - I will keep my ear to the ground. I overheard AK is still in Sth Sudan and is not currently in Sth Africa (yet?) - not clear if that's planned/unplanned, make of it what you will.
Many thanks also to Rocky for sharing the excellent IR post.
Thx for posting. Nice to gain some clarity about debt situation.
Slightly concerned about Kiir visit to Russia. I've read Russian translation of their statements on energy and potential funding of refinery. Of course Caltech announcement ...and then it's withdrawal and SSudan closer alignment with a sanctioned country must be a fluke or mere coincidence. Also multiple sackings in recent weeks in Kiir's government. Weirdly I still want the deal to close but it's a massive and risky step. 8 weeks and counting....
Enjoy reading the posts (silent) these last few years and this forum has some of the most astute observations. I have plenty of skin in this game.
cj
Thanks, Rocky. Very kind of you to share this.
I feel that Sally, understandably, has to toe the line here. That said, it's clear that the deal still has a pulse given her comments.
One other thing: I don't believe that the interims repeated that reference to another hydrocarbon deal closing by year-end. I may be reading too much into matters, but perhaps other deals may have fallen away.
I'm hoping that fellow poster JDC might find out the current state of Naira liquidity (in size) when mingling at the Africa Energy session in Cape Town. We'd love your insight, JD. In between glasses of Stellenbosch, of course.
Best wishes from Belgrade.
Rocky - just to reiterate, thanks very much for the update. You greatly contribute to keeping us all sane on here. The comment about the African energy arena being a roller coaster ride couldn't be truer - and being a true "save"r I often ask myself would I have it any other way? I have a theory that all save s'holders are thrill seekers as there is never a dull moment with so many dramatic ups and downs . atb
K - hi and good to see you here again. I like many other look for the clues on the way words are put together - but it is really hard to get 2 + 2 = 4. But from the long set of replies I posted, here are my quick take aways.
1 could be longer than I hoped for before we get to the 3 + 1 ICC rulings
2 at long last debt restructure does seem a lot closer (sigh of relief)
3 this is my main one by far. There is a sentence:- “ We plan to give a detailed strategic update for all investors around the publication of our Admission Document in Q4 2023.” I am not on about the 1st part of the sentence re strategic update! I am on about the “around the publication of our AD in Q4 2023”. I am hoping that they really do believe this will happen. Maybe it was just genuinely missed word but this bit did not have the word “expected publication”!!!
Anyway like Z says - just a big waiting game now. Maybe we will get debt RNS soon and maybe a few AI papers if they find out a few new snippets. Strange the Caltech stuff came and left like a hurricane with nothing being heard of it since. Strange old set up this African oil business stuff - but hey ho it is what it is. We could come back sub 20p or over a quid!!!
Thanks RR, as ever appreciate these updates.
'we would note that both ourselves and PETRONAS are continuing to engage fully with the Government of South Sudan and are all working together in country as we continue to progress the transaction to its expected completion.'
I guess they wouldn't be saying anything too different either way but the phrase 'expected completion' does suggest that it could be positive for us after all.
Thanks RR. Nothing much that I could add and just waiting out the timeline of the next 8 weeks. Hopefully news before then.
Cheers Rocky, so Naira debt restructure could happen anytime now excellent.
Really appreciate this info RR.
Fingers crossed for Naira facility (sounds positive) and South Sudan completion.
PART 3
3) PR
We are being given very minimal information with regards current activity and current / future strategy. We only hear from Andrew when he feels compelled to do so. Can I ask that you put together a Webcast / presentation to be delivered to PI's with a'live' Q&A and not pre-submitted questions? On this note can I also ask that Andrew speaks a bit slower and more clearly as when he's in Africa, I really struggle to understand what he says. I note that we were promised an informal night (meet the BOD) for PI's with nibbles etc which has not yet materialised. Could I please request that you put something on for us sometime in Q4?
We plan to give a detailed strategic update for all investors around the publication of our Admission Document in Q4 2023. We note your comment on the informal evening and will revert once an appropriate date has been considered.
Kind regards,
Sally
PART 2
We conduct thorough due diligence on all of our proposed acquisitions, whilst recognising that we operate in often challenging emerging market jurisdictions. We have a robust risk management framework in place to ensure that clear procedures for risk identification, assessment, measurement, mitigation, monitoring and reporting are aligned with Savannah’s strategic aims and the Board’s risk appetite – see pages 92-101 of our 2022 Annual Report for more details on our Risk Management.
How many cases do we have with the ICC, what is their current status and do any of them have hearing dates listed?
In relation to the nationalisation of our interests in Chad, we have three arbitrations seated with the ICC in Paris, and one seated with the ICC In London. These have been brought by our subsidiaries Savannah Chad Inc (“SCI”) and Savannah Midstream Investments Limited (“SMIL”). We will provide further updates as appropriate in relation to the progress of the various cases. However, these are currently at a relatively early stage in the process.
Are SAVE still looking to undertake new M&A in as I would like to see us sort out our core business before we take on any more risky, very expensive M&A activity? I'd like to see debt sorted, compression completed and new customers added in Nigeria before we take on any other deals. Personally I think we should work on a consolidation plan for a period of time.
As noted above, we expect to have the Naira transitional facility in place in Q4 2023. As noted in our Half Year 2023 results announcement, we are making good progress on the US$45 million compression project in Nigeria. Following the front-end engineering and the associated order of long lead items, detailed design work has commenced and is on track to be completed in Q4 2023, while startup is planned for mid-2024. We also added new customers in Nigeria and have seen continued momentum in H2 2023, with contract extensions secured with three customers, amounting to a total of up to 85 MMscfpd. Such is the strength of demand for gas in Nigeria that we were also pleased to reach an agreement with Amalgamated Oil Company Nigeria Limited (“AMOCON”) in the first half of this year, to purchase up to 20 MMscfpd of gas from them over the course of the next ten years. As mentioned in our CEO’s Letter to Shareholders in Savannah’s 2022 Annual Report, we continue to review M&A opportunities and will pursue those which we believe would be accretive for shareholders.
PART 1
Back from a stunning City break in Valencia now and pleased to have received a very comprehensive reply from Sally this morning. Personally I can’t fault the reply at all and am extremely grateful for such a detailed reply for which i have replied with my sincere thanks. I won’t analyse or comment on the words below but It would great to hear the views of the folk on here who know SAVE well - you know who you are LOL:-
1) Debt
We have known about this issue since the completion of the 7E RTO. We have also been working on it for in excess of two years with several 'expected dates' for closure missed. How on earth have we ended up in this situation whereby failure to renegotiate or refinance our current debt will seriously jeopardise the going concern of the whole company?
Why was this not completed to stabilise, underpin and safeguard the company before we embarked on our very risky M&A activities?
As you say this issue is not new, having been disclosed in our accounts since 2021. The refinancing of the debt acquired upon the Nigeria acquisition has taken longer than originally anticipated. However, as noted in our recent Half Year 2023 results announcement, we anticipate putting in place the Naira-denominated transitional facility during Q4 2023, with a term sheet already agreed with the lenders for this facility. We also do not consider that the current financing in any way jeopardises the financial stability of the company – we continue to adopt the going concern method of accounting and the audit opinion from BDO is not modified in this respect.
2) M&A
Having had a team of people conducting due diligence on over 20 potential opportunities in multiple countries, why did we decide to go in to 2 (Chad & South Sudan) of the most corrupt, dangerous and untrustworthy jurisdictions in Africa? With only Accugas underpinning the company, why did we not take on lower risk profile M&A opportunities before taking on these very cheap, very high risk deals?
What is going on with the South Sudan deal? After all the recent press speculation, why have SAVE not updated the market? If this press speculation had occurred while we were trading, the share price would have tumbled and I'm sure you'd have had to issue something. Why is this different while we are suspended?
As noted in our recent Half Year 2023 results announcement, we continue to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited’s energy business in South Sudan (the “PETRONAS Acquisition”) and intend to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023. Whilst we do not comment on press speculation, we would note that both ourselves and PETRONAS are continuing to engage fully with the Government of South Sudan and are all working together in country as we continue to progress the transaction to its expected completion.
Https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/1010-13461-cameroonian-joseph-pagop-noupoue-fired-from-ernst-young-for-policy-violation#:~:text=(Business%20in%20Cameroon)%20%2D%20Cameroonian,Ernst%20%26%20Young%20(EY).
Business in Cameroon) - Cameroonian lawyer Joseph Pagop Noupoué has been removed from his position as Country Managing Partner at the international accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY). A recent internal memo co-signed by Erik Watremez, the interim Country Managing Partner for Cameroon and Gabon, and Marcel Van Loo, EY's Western Europe Region Manager, cited policy violations as the reason for Noupoué's dismissal. The memo also stated that Noupoué is no longer employed by EY and is attempting to separate the Cameroonian legal entities from the global EY network, which his former partners do not agree with.
"We would like to reaffirm that EY's management in Cameroon has been restructured with Erik Watremez, Acting Country Managing Partner of EY Cameroon, Abdoulaye Mouchili, Head of Assurance EY Cameroon, and Anselme Patipewe, Head of Tax EY Cameroon. They will continue to lead EY's activities in Cameroon, meeting clients' needs in both audit and tax", the memo reads.
This change has raised questions, with some speculating that it may be connected to Noupoué's involvement with Savannah Energy, a British junior oil company. Noupoué, who is the sole known Cameroonian shareholder in Savannah Energy, was part of a recent diplomatic dispute between Cameroon and Chad. The dispute arose after Cameroon signed an agreement with the National Hydrocarbons Company of Cameroon to transfer 10% of Cotco assets, the company managing the Cameroonian section of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline. Chad claimed that Cameroon had engaged in unfriendly actions by contracting with a "fishy" group associated with Cameroonian figures who were challenging Chad's nationalized oilfields following Exxon Mobil's departure.
Noupoué's involvement with Savannah Energy became official when he was appointed as a non-executive director on the company's board in April 2023. He was also named to succeed Steve Jenkins, Savannah Energy's current non-executive chairman, who plans to retire after serving eight years in the position. To join the company's decision-making body, Noupoué purchased 6,095,726 new shares at £1.6 million (about CFA1.2 billion). This acquisition gives him a 0.46% stake in the company's total voting rights. The source of funds for this acquisition remains undisclosed.
"I am delighted to be joining Savannah at this key time in its growth and look forward to bringing my experience to the role. I would like to thank the outgoing Chairman, Steve Jenkins, for guiding this company since 2014 and I look forward to working with him, the rest of the Board, and the management team to achieve our many and wide-ranging goals. It's very clear to me that Savannah is ambitious and fueled by a passion for doing good in the world. The benefits Savannah has brought to the African community in Nigeria and Niger, and the projects for Cameroon and South Sudan, are impressive and obvious," he commented following his appointment.
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-manag
I’m sure this will get sorted but it’s jut a matter of time. I think our projects will also be fine but god knows what delays we will have to put up with.
“ Algeria has announced it has suspended its efforts to mediate the political crisis in Niger following the coup in July.
Its foreign affairs ministry said in a statement on Monday that declarations from Nigerien authorities had raised “legitimate questions about their real willingness to follow through on their acceptance of Algerian mediation”.
It has now put the process on hold pending commitment from the junta to continue with the mediation.
Last month, Niger accepted Algeria’s offer to mediate in its political crisis aimed at returning the country to constitutional rule.
In August, Algeria had proposed a six-month transition period led by a civilian authority.
But the head of the junta, Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who seized power in July, wanted a three-year transition period.
Algeria had also objected to a military solution to the crisis in Niger following threats by the regional bloc Ecowas of a possible military intervention to restore democracy.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is also the chairman of the regional bloc, had welcomed the mediation process, but this latest development will further frustrate efforts to resolve the political crisis in Niger.”
With rising oil prices it would be nice to have some to sell 🤔