George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I love RMM3383
£’s not pence really can happen RMM. You are so right to highlight this. I’m confident that we will see your short term 5p-6p share price for Sareum soon enough. It’s just a matter of time. The huge buying this week supports this. A great piece of work by the way re your calculations. Your musings should really help newbies realise the huge potential here with Sareum. I would add that based purely on what we have witnessed in the pharma sector with NCYT, SNG, ODX, AVCT, HEMO, N4P, YGEN, PYC, VAL etc, anything is possible and £’s not pence really can happen. Just ask those investors in Novacyt, Synairgen, Omega, and Avacta who have all seen their share prices rise from pennies to pounds. Good luck all Sareum investors, Brighty.
RMM. That's exactly what many of us think! The SP can't be held back much longer and there is a lot of positioning going on by some large buyers.
Nick - We're being played with. However, it can't go on forever as by going over 2p we're now above the radar. My belief is we'll see significant change once 3p is breached and a different type of investor emerges. Hold on to your stock! Just my opinion....
That will do for me RMM :)
Krone - there's a lot of flashing lights out there. But a lot have batteries that will go flat very soon. I'm hoping we've got Duracell in ours. If PoC works then the brakes will be off as of yesterday.
Persuasive b*gg*rs.
Just topped up again.
Hi RMM -that's a good post. Why do you believe we're not a 5pence - where we should be as yet? Sometimes (as we have seen with others in biotech) it can take a week or two for it to filter in...
Potnak - if you've got shares you've already signed!
Hi RMM - given the current perilous state of the world it must be reasonable to assume that 1801 for Covid will be fast tracked within the constraints of proper scientific rigour. It is inconceivable that we are not flashing brightly on the radar of many big pharma companies.
29p plus divi vehicle. I'm in! Where do I sign?
The automotive sector. But I'm not a used car salesman.... I did a very large piece of work for the UK's biggest car auction house. Interesting, frustrating and frightening!!!
Hi RMM, you spoke in your earlier post of your auction experience. Care to tell us about that experience ?
Hi Krone - My estimate is that between now and the end of April 21 its somewhere between a 4-10 bagger. The lower end is based on PoC and 1801 going forward. The higher end is 1801 gets licenced/partnered and we also get positive news on both PoC and FLT3. 737 is the unknowable!
Hi RMM - Outstanding post, many thanks.
Just a little amendment to Thoths calculation (dangerous given that he's a chartered accountant!) - The revenue figures are in $ which means at the current exchange rate the $4 quoted equates to a SP of £3.25. That would of course be if 1801 went the full distance on just Covid. We are about to go into PoC which is high risk so I've applied a high discount rate - 95%. On this basis the announcement of the grant should have put 3.5p on the SP. Allowing for some pricing in as we knew the decision was imminent then I would have expected 2.5p on top of where we were. That means that we should be much nearer to 5p if not 6p. Assuming we get PoC and land a half decent partner then in 6 months the risk factor drops and I calculate this adds another 7.1p to the SP taking us to 13.1p. At the same time we take 1801 into P1 and without a partner this adds another 14p (again with a high risk factor). Total SP by mid April = 27p. Add in 737 (I'm being cautious and only using 50% of the milestones due) and we head over 30p. So, thinking ahead and assuming everything goes to plan (highly unlikely) then in 2-3 years (factoring in 1802 and FLT3) we should be looking at a company worth £29.92 per share (assuming no further dilution). Based on all the risk factors I'd take a valuation of 10% of the potential which means an acquisition price of £2.99. However, I'd be very happy to take 10% of that upfront and the rest in a dividends vehicle so 29p now please and a long pension plan. As I said a little while ago, bidding starts at 20p and based on my auction experience the auctioneer puts out a price, nobody responds and the price gets discounted. Bidding then commences and lo and behold the starting price is reached. Bidding at 20p, selling price 29p. Makes you think doesn't it? Even if we only get one molecule to market we should still be worth 8-9p by April. GLA
Thoth2 - you can't really apply a p/e ratio to a single product. That is why they are a useless valuation tool for biotech and pre-clinical development companies since it also assumes recurring revenue streams which do not happen with patent expiries and biotechs, unlike large multi-product product pharmas, have no history of navigating a patent expiry cycle.
That said, you would tend to look at the net present value of a particular revenue stream over the life of the patent. So, in the case of Tyk2 in Covid, if we said the royalty equated to a flat $600m per year for, say 12 years, and apply a 10% discount rate per year as a risk adjustment, we get a total NPV of $4.26bn. At today's exchange rate and number of shares in issue, this pretty much near as dammit comes to £1 per share (as you say, for Tyk2 alone in Covid use).
Plenty of assumptions to play with in that calculation, but does show what the potential could be on any one of a large number of prospects.
Thoth - 5p by Xmas? We should be above that now!
Remdsivir- doesnt really work
$3bn sales on emergency use authorisation.
Our royalty rate on a deal is now 20%
$600m pa
23 P/E ration in pharma.
4 quid a share. just on Tyk2 in Covid.
belt & braces fellow sareans. your targets are far too low.
Should read world health organisation.
Bah another aged moment
If we do manage to get a large pharma as a partner for one or more of our best in class compounds for sure it would make an immediate mega difference to our SP.
Let's consider Gilead and remdesvir.
As many of us are aware Gilead have signed a contract to supply the European Union with remdesvir as a covid treatment.
The contract must be worth millions of dollars . Not bad for a treatment that at best has been reported to slightly improve patients recovery time. To even cast doubt on that It seems that the solidarity trial carried out by the World Health Association concluded that remdesvir doesn't reduce recovery time or mortality at all.
Just think if we had a big pharma that specialised in antivirals such as Gilead on board as a partner with our compounds that work , being quids in would be a big understatement.
I am sure we will be able to attract a biggy to hook up with and once we do the till won't stop ringing