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strong bounce off 302p ...undervalued and just pushed down on sentiment.....
Re: "I fear more pain as the spectre of Covid is starting to appear over some travel again."
Agreed - for companies that offer travel for youngsters.
Croatia and Austria previously set expiry dates for vaccines of 210 and 270 days.
Other countries are likely to follow this model.
What travel company in the UK has the demographic that already has almost its entire clientele receiving booster jabs meaning that they are not affected by this measure?
You've got it - Saga.
Some excellent news I heard today from a neighbour whom has booked in the last few days not only the Spirit of Adventure 30 day trip to the Bahamas but also the June Baltic trip on same which is not only 2 further bookings made but in January after the first trip I will have direct feedback on the performance of the Saga Cruise offering, I am very hopeful of some excellent news that also feeds the Share price. Interesting he purchased the Cruise offerings due to the fact he had extremely good service from Saga with their Home Insurance Offering. Maybe there can be other exceptional offerings from Saga that will take the interest of the Over 50's!
I fear more pain as the spectre of Covid is starting to appear over some travel again.
Think we are going to be stuck around this figure for a while now unfortunately.
Think those are gross figures. If you view the H1 presentation the head of cruise mentions having gbp 6m of discounts in the rest of 2021. Don't quote me.
Poker I am taking them at their word on per diems that are published in the accounts. They say something like £304 for this year and £308 for next. Would be a bit rude of them to gross up any discounts !!
" The Group expects that a significant portion of Cruise advance receipts will be retained, in return for discount vouchers and offers on future departures "
Is it fair to assume that those re-booked cruises will be operating at a reduced profit margin compared to the fresh 2021 bookings... ...as a result of "offers" and vouchers that will have secured last years prices ?
Cruise Sales are indeed encouraging ... I will have to use the data given to see if the % of last years re-bookings can be obtained alongside the % of "new" (higher margin) bookings
Thanks Banbury. A handful of dividends received recently or due shortly in one of our ISAs so may think of topping up.
Banburyboy thank you for the updates on Cruise Sales it certainly is very positive and I thought expected which is great news much appreciate your updates and I am sure we are potentially due a good leg up on price so maybe this coming week will be a positive one for our company! Would also like to hear some more good news on Insurance and the way Saga intend to grow the business? But perhaps all in good time with the new CEO starting November!
Slow and Steady nothing i am aware of . Saga down 15% from 368 on Sept 27th. Admiral down 8% Aviva 1% and Direct line 3%. Easy jet down 9%and Carnival down 2%. We seem to have been battered.
Iceland on 19th June just sold out. That's six cruises in the first half of 2022 sold out. Next is St James 13 April 6 cabins left and Greenland July 17 cabins left. Assuming these go that's eight of seventeen sold out.
The above analysis excludes the four Jan / Feb cruises that replaced South America and were announced in early October. The two to the Canaries were heavily discounted in the Saterday Times - £210pppn.
The four cruises are shifting well and at 48% booked which is good for just three weeks.
Just have to hope the market turns soon
Poker... I think you need to get into some serious workouts and diets to get rid of that double bottom of yours.
Can anyone summarise for me please any (factual) developments that may have caused this pullback from 370p in the last three weeks? Any news that I might have missed?
Thanks
"...entered the exact same dtails..."
Via a comparison site or direct with providers?
I think total fuel costs are £10m based on $80 oil. Derived from the 2019 ship presentation.
Fuel hedges at 31 July 21 were £0.4m ((Note 12).
In terms of total operating costs on cruise fuel not too material. But not a lot hedged unless they did something after July.
Interestingly they have loads of foreign exchange hedges in relation to the foreign currency of Tour.
Banburyboy
I bought in at 307p and 311p and will see if there is a double bottom as to whether to do a final buy .....
At the end of the day there are only 140 million shares here now....so it can move quickly in either direction.... and unlikely to be more shares issued for a while which is good news .....
Euan and the team seem a safe set of hands and have a pretty good awareness of the business and what they want to achieve....and have handled the COVID pretty well...despite the unfortunate costs and loss of revenues during the past 18 months ......things can only get better ( one hopes)
How much of the ships fuel needs are hedged do you know ? ...Easyjet hedges 55%, for example, for 2022
Yes im over 50 and entered the exact same dtails , I like the saga brand but would be reluctant to ever check again
Over 50?
Something needs to be done , my car insurance quote from saga was 628.00 , I went with axa which was 198.00 , massive difference
Over-50s specialist provider Saga has appointed former Tesco Underwriting chief executive Steve Kingshott as chief executive of its insurance business Saga Insurance now only 2 and half weeks until the new boss in Saga Insurance starts! With the various changes in insurance due to commence shortly could mean a great opportunity to win more and new business!
Should have read £175m in bank 31st July
190 cabins on the other shifted in the week to the 12th October
Poker good balanced posts. Reasons to be cheerful and hopeful
£175m in the bank in May. So they could pay back that £85m.
Cruise bookings for 2022 i have as 74% full (85% Q1 86% Q2 77% Q3 and 47% Q4). This excludes the South America cruise cancelled and replaced by four others.
Those four cruises have been available 2 weeks and are 43% full already with 190 cabins shifted up to 12 October.
Per diems £259 pre pandemic. Increased to £294 for the June / July sailing and £302 in 2021 forward bookings and £306 for 2022 forward booking. This is £47 or 18% which is phenominal. Each £1 is 300k per ship onto the bottom line
Capacity way higher than they have ever been and prices based on per diem way higher
Nominal corporation tax payable as we are in the tonnage tax regime.
Downside
I concur Tour burn of £2.5m (based on segment operating loss of £16m in the interims ) but should easily be covered by cruise .
The elephant in the room is deposits on Tour we have blown in earlier years. These were £19.9m in the six months to July 21 and i a hoping they will work there way through by year end. Once these have gone i am really confident.
Definately a long term hold and any investors at this price will in my opinion be well rewarded
Folks have been a bit too bullish with all the talk of 600p-700p .... the market no longer seem to look too far ahead and everything just runs in relatively short price cycles .....shares often get pushed to a cycle high and then floored back down to a cycle low....with the early sellers pushing to get in at the low again...no doubt doubling their shares and just using the same capital ....seems the way of the FTSE these days
They are definitely looking to over-sell it down ..in view of the Winter sales period on cruise ..and expectations of a much better 2022-23... ..just need to get that £85m paid back that they are behind on ...and dry up on the Tour side monthly burn (£2.5m?)
Whatever happens to food prices or winter bills...people still want to have some "event" to look forward to...such as a cruise... ..otherwise..what is it all for ??!! ...
Taking on 50 new/replacement staff shows they must have some expectation in the mid term....especially if they are spending on TV marketing
Jed I gave you a serious and researched answer to your question re inflation based on the companies own sensitivities and costs. The impact is very minor . Unless you have any specific Saga info (good or bad) this board is very objective don't think it's worth you posting.
Impossible to tell Jed... Price predictions are pointless as we've come to realize on this board. Everyone has been miles out including myself. At the end of the day no one knows where this is going but to be honest it doesn't really matter in the short term as this is a long term play.
If they can get profit levels back to what has been suggested over the next 2-3 years the current mkt cap is just laughable...
With regards to where this goes next is anyones guess and futile trying to predict.
Good luck to all whatever you stance
Jed,
Please clamp it. We don't need you to re-issue your hoped for price of £2.50 every day.
If you have anything worthwhile to contribute let's hear it by all means.
Otherwise, keep it clamped.