George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I find this reaction to the RNS a little surprising to be honest - unless I've missed something, I don't see anything here that we didn't already know? I assumed that the sale of Simec's shares was already priced in at this point. As EE123 pointed out, nothing about the business has actually changed today.
I also had a little look at the restructuring of the WG cabinet this morning. Julie James seems to be the woman to watch. On the one hand, Ms James was in charge of planning policy when the moratorium on WfE was introduced - not great for Uskmouth - but on the other hand, she also controversially allowed a WfE plant in Llansamlet in 2019. I still think planning rejection is most likely, but I will almost certainly be buying back in after that - I think that between CfDs and foreign conversion projects, this is eventually going to be a multibagger.
Once the shareholding situation resolves and if Uskmouth gets planning what's it worth then? More than 30p?
I guess this comment was aimed at me.
I didn't suggest anything, I simply gave a factual description of what I'd done.
One of the few facts we on this BB possess is how many shares we bought or sold, which is why I gave the number.
By the way, the shares were shown as "unknown" because the algorithm presumably couldn't decide whether it was a buy or a sell.
I don't think anything has changed from yesterday other than the shareprice is lower?
The underlying business has the same risks to Uskmouth and CFD's as it did.
It is still a world leader in Tidal, and like most LTH, I for one would love to see the back of GFG's association.
There is a wall of ESG money out there. A huge amount
This is a the leader in what will have to be part of the energy transition. I'm not so excited about the power plant
Someone will bid for this and then it will be bid up
Think this will close over 6
The market maker took 8.2 million and will be pleased to sell them on at 5p plus.
Forgetting the price, this sort of uncertainty is not good. Will any deals be put on hold or credit be withdrawn? Will key staff be looking around and thinking maybe it could be time to move on with those on share options losing interest? Will suppliers be uncertain about stock levels and concerned about payment etc. Just not good for business short term. I suspect big losses this year is likely.
Well someone doesn't mind owning 8.2m shares at these levels!
That sellers out so hopefully back up...
Always makes me laugh when you've got PI's declaring buys for 18k shares and trying to suggest there is manipulation ongoing whilst at the same time you have sells of 8.2m shares popping up at 4.5p... wake up!
I would love to see the world go beyond burning plastic waste by only using recyclable plastic and plant based plastic. But I am presuming that is realistically not going to be possible for a number of years. I don't see how they can in all good conscience bury it in the ground or send it abroad without a proper solution abroad. Am I missing something or is that what the Uskmouth situation ought to boil down to IF the legitimate clean air agenda is to be pursued in a balanced rather than unbalanced way?
I bought 18,019 shares at 09:56. It will be interesting to see if they show as buy or sell.
I think (hope) the panic here is overdone.
News of decisions from Wales will steady the ship.
Bought 14,350 pounds worth (or thereabouts) at just under six. More of less doubles up on my number of shares. Casapinos paints a grim possible picture which is possible I think. But I also see other scenarios. The shares could, for example, be sold via a broker to a range of high net worth individuals and institutional investors. It would not be dilutive so there would be no reason for any discount to push down sentiment. IA recent example is PHE where a non-distressed major shareholder sold down and it did not affect sentiment. Of course in this instance the scale of shares on offer might generate some selling after as some of those who bought in at a discount would want to crystallise profits. However, that would likely be a reasonably gradual and very partial selling with many wanting to stay longer and buy in because of the value proposition down at these levels. I also think if it is one individual making an offer they would most likely need to pay a premium to get hold of the remaining share and as rumbled indicates may well be content enough to do so.
I agree Danl - the compulsory bid is not an issue. Most important is to get a good strategic investor on board. Who holds the equity of the company should not impact the "distressed or otherwise" nature of the business. We are still in a sector which will grow exponentially in the future and most importantly there will be huge increases in investment dollars from funds for businesses such as ours.
Added more here, incidentally showing as a sell !
Good R v R IMO.
Hi rumbled.
Interesting insight.
My concern is, what if they cannot find a buyer at 'fair value' and the only bid they have is at a discount?
Would we as shareholders then have the choice between a low-ball buyout or potentially a revolving credit facility or 'death spiral' financing??
I believe SAE is not distressed, and should be able to find either a buyer or funder at fair value... there are a few issues to be resolved, namely the Planning decision at Usk...
Simec has been on my radar for sometime and always liked what they were doing. The shareholding is at a decent enough size that will have investors interested but the issue of the >30% stake might be problematic but potentially two investors, possibly including Simec Atlantis itself could buy 13% while another investor takes 30% so there are many ways around forcing any buyer to not have to make a takeover offer. However it does depend how long and hard the current 43% investor is going to fight this and that potentially that could be a drawn out process if they can find a way. Clearly they do not want to sell today. The other scenario is that an investor will not be found and similar to how i have seen other forced sales it will all depend on the amount of debt owed as the liquidators only care to recover the debts and while they might say they want to maximise value as soon as they have power to sell some shares they probably will but suspect Simec management will be working now to find a new anchor investor. However its a major stake and my overall expectation is a new investor will be found as Simec are perfectly placed for a power company or even someone like BP to come along as it is loose change and these companies need to massively move out of fossil fuels. Today in Guardian gives a sense of how quickly fossil fuels might get smashed over next 10 years to the point there is no oil or coal based mining at all in the western world so these companies need to diversify quickly for their own sake so Simec i think has a long way to go yet and potentially positively. However short-term i suspect some turbulence.
I would be up for a 1-1 placing by the company to raise funds to buy back his shares at a discount. Or at least to buy 18% leaving 29% to be sold and avoid a mandatory bid....
I'm just a corporate finance guy - i just look at things how i would advise clients..... remember the only requirement on buying 43% would be an offer to the remaining shareholders and if they bought 43% cheap from a distressed seller, it does not mean the other shareholders are distressed and would accept a similar price. Actually in reality it leaves more cash for a bid for the remaining shareholders - if the buyer is willing to pay fair value for the company as a whole. Just my view. I am personally not quite ready to buy more yet but i am not selling and beginning to think about buying as this situation resolves itself - which it will.
Hi Rumbled, assuming my analysis is correct (and it may well not be!) the outcome of a new owner and a bid would depend on the perceived value of SAE , but if a new owner chosen by liquidators,( who will sell at a lower price than other holders would like) holds 43% they are in a pretty strong position to offer a "take it or leave it "price .SAE is currently worth £36 mill , so the 57% outstanding is about £20 mill, in a forced sale punters will get a hard nosed offer, which if they refuse might result in the company, in its present form folding , and the assets rather than the company being sold , with shareholders getting nothing. If you doubt my negativity, read back on the SXX saga , where lots of perennial optimists found out some harsh realities.
Hopefully a buyer can be found quickly. Not in the interest of the receivers to see the share price decimated. Maybe strategically a good thing though. The sooner they can cut ties with Gupta the better. They should start with changing the name back to Atlantis Energy!
Hi Casapinos - you make the point "new owner, who would of course be required to bid for the rest of the asset.(likely at a knock down price)" - while they might be required to make a bid for the remaining shares - that does not mean any other shareholder would accept it - we just reject it surely. If you glass is half full rather than empty - you could say removing a lame duck shareholder and replacing with a hungry strategic investor could increase the value of our equity to pre GFG issue levels.
I've had a quick scan of the relevant pages of the Singapore takeover code , and it looks like GFG may have been in breach of the rules since it took a stake. I should have twigged earlier as , like the UK any holder of more than 30% of a company's equity is required to make a bid for the rest , that didn't happen a couple of years ago when the deal was struck . If I am right , then both companies are at fault as is , I guess the auditor and the CFO . The consequence for SAE is that whatever the rights and wrongs , some 43% of SAE is part of GFG's assets which could be claimed by liquidators to pay off debts. The sensible course would be to sell that 43% to a willing buyer and add the proceeds to the recoverable amount . The effect on SAE is of course , the price and the plans of a new owner, who would of course be required to bid for the rest of the asset.(likely at a knock down price) Effect on shareholders,? Unpredictable , but probably not good.
This will tank a bit today so I can buy more shares... will be cheap as chips at 9am :-)
There was always going to be a fire sale of GFG's portion of the shares unfortunately and this is the first stage of that process. At least once this is over, and barring any takeover, SAE can hopefully be clear of all this mess and continue onwards and upwards but it's going to remain very bumpy until then I fear.