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Thank you Sefton82 apology accepted, you are a Gentleman
sefton,glad to see you back.
Well said Sefton. I always respect a man who can offer an unreserved and genuine apology.
Glad to have you back Sefton.
Morning Sound2,
You have my unreserved apology.
Jumping to unwarranted conclusions is never a good idea. I did on your post and am sorry.
Sefton - good to see you back posting.
Spawny - this 6 pay zone target is very similar to PANRs multiple stacked drills(although theirs is for oil). Market priced it's success way before the first drill and think it's NPV estimates are very similar to PRDs success case estimates I.e.$1bn +.
PG has worked onshore ME for a long time and I'm sure he has seen a lot of prospects and given 40 years of experience he is very comfortable with the geology of Mou 1 especially given the cost of $2.5 million for potential of getting a TCF of gas.
And remember that TXPs first drill had a CoS of 34% as well for its first C deep well. So CoS in crude terms is pretty decent for two 400 Bcf pay zones (although not sure how good SLRs estimates are historically and whether TXP had a similar consulting who estimated their first drills 34% CoS)
All IMO dyor
Thank you Kasjnaton,You are correct the devil reference was to 6,666 shares bought today
I hold GRH in high esteem and read all his posts with great interest a very knowledgeable Gentleman,
I hold many millions of shares in PRD and have great faith in Paul G,
I look forward to the share price in the ££ss
No need to apologise to me, if anyone, it should be Sound2 that receives the apology.
Hi Kas,
Sorry, I got confused and was actually replying to your post.
Apologies.
Hi Spawny,
Thank you for that. I had not seen the 6,666 shares buy. And now understand the possible reference.
That may be the explanation but the appurtenance of Sound in the poster's name just made me think it might be a continuation of some disgruntled people from that board.
Hi Spawny100, I realise that you asked for GRH to clarify his perspective as per your calculations but as he is yet to respond then I thought I'd offer my thoughts and that is that I think your calculation is far to simplistic. If I am wrong on this then I am I will be promptly corrected.
For further reading on the subject see the link below;
core.ac.uk/download/pdf/154672038.pdf
You may also find the following link interesting;
www.geoexpro.com/articles/2019/04/the-hydrocarbon-pre-drill-prediction-toolbox
GRH's post on 9th Jan @ 17:43 contained the following link:
twitter.com/Oilman_Jim/status/1346420274212851714?s=20
Surely the reason that PG is confident in the commercial success of the Morocco drill(s) is not down to some basic stats but due to other factors;
Gas has already been found in that location
Analysis of logs by Nutech an external party to optimise the drill
He has experience of doing exactly this before in Morocco, see Fastnet for reference.
Lastly to put a bit of perspective to the following;
"I'm not absolutely clear if all the targets are indeed discrete and success at any one is completely independent of success at any of the others"
My understanding is that the chances of success, as per your calculation, are initial values and to give a guideline as to whether or not to drill in the first instance.
If the first target is successful do you not think that it will improve confidence that the work carried out is correct and that the probabilities of success for the other tragets may increase, don't forget that measurements are being taken all the time whilst drilling.
Likewise if the first target is unsuccessful do you not think that you would downgrade the probability of the other targets being successful, i.e. you have misinterpreted the logs and thereby incorrectly understood the geology.
Sefton82, saw you had posted whilst I was wirting the above. I think Sound2's comment was in reference to a buy of 6,666 shares, and nothing to do with GRH.
I was going to remain a quiet observer for a while.
Though I am committed to the cause and have not sold a share and have only added more in recent days. And I think this stock is well worth it.
But I suspect the Sound2 posting was aimed at GRH and I think it was distinctly unhelpful to a very civilised BB.
This BB has been for a very long time very civilised and very well informed - and Tim has more recently added enormous value in his contributions.
But GRH has inputted a great deal here of enormous value. And has always been crystal clear that it is his views/insight/research and one should take it as such and form your own opinions. But at least there is some highly informed information and views expressed - surely what this BB is meant to be about.
I do not agree myself with GRH about everything but I have massively appreciated the value he has brought to this BB.
And GRH does not need me to defend him. He has done so very articulately himself.
So, Sound2, please either contribute some input/information of value or say nothing. Making personally-based vindictive comments is the sort of stuff that has wrecked other BB's here.
So, Sound2, say something of value or STFU (forgive me, but I have only so much capacity to continue being diplomatic).
And, for those that may not grasp all acronyms, STFU means Shut The **** Up.
Hi GRH. Does that mean you agree with my basic probability calculation? I'm not absolutely clear if all the targets are indeed discrete and success at any one is completely independent of success at any of the others but assumed so for the purpose of the calculation. I'm also fairly loaded up here now, for me anyway!
Looks like the devil is also buying shares,he must know something
Afternoon all...
Spawny...
FWIW I did post ages ago I think re probability math
I think it was one of my more boring sounding posts ...so was not widely read I think
BUT it is the lack of understanding of this VERY subject that lands many many PIs with very large losses
You would be staggered re how many folk do not understand binomials...the risks they are running...
and I am not referring only to those outside the industry
Of course...the very fact that gaming houses/bookmakers /casinos etc DO understand binomials makes their owners quite wealthy!
In fact, whenever I get around to waffling on about 'risk' , I intend to start off with some VERY startling math
As I have said before,
I hold decent volumes of shares in PRD
ATB
I keep thinking we are always in the right place at the right time -
WTI prices being both high and close to Brent as we move out of project mode and into production mode in T & T
Gas prices in Morocco being linked to oil as it flies rather than gas as it moves up glacially.....but
LNG price has fallen off a cliff since January from $20 to $6 - that sounds disappointing but I'm now thinking it could be perfect timing.
Just as crunch time comes for the Irish to get out their calculators and cost out their various energy options...
I'm sure in the short to medium term, LNG will work out an awful.lot cheaper than building a wind farm the size of Wales and an awful lot cleaner than importing coal from the new mine being planned in Cumbria...
Given sdx is looking at a 2 BCF sized discovery to be commercial(might be close to existing production infrastructure?), would be interesting to see what's the minimum sized discovery that could be commercial for Mou 1...
I was just looking at the recent presentation to find out chance of success estimated for Morroc dril as I was wondering what the chanc eof success might be to hot at least one of the stacked targets. The 4 independent (?) chances of success are 57, 34, 10, 63. So (if my memory of stats/binomial distributions is correct) the chance of failure at all 4 is 0.43*0.66*0.9*0.37 = 0.095 or 9.5%. So the chance of success at at least one of the targets is 1-0.095 =0.905 or 90% chance of success. Pretty good odds I'd say.Might be why Paul seems pretty confident on this drill?!