Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
Has anyone seen any Origin press releases highlighting significance of this Fog RNS? Surely such a commercial success would have them highlighting significance of these results to the media all across?
Theoryman - I think todays genl rns says to the market that krg is not afraid to pull the psc if they choose to for whatever reason. That means an inherent risk of such a move on all IOCs in krg whether possible or not, but the probability of such an event is non-zero after todays rns from genl? Genl threatening with arbitration will possibly mess up all IOCs chances of delivering value as krg might pivot more towards giving less preferential treatment to IOCs and maybe lining up with icg view of having a tsc instead of a psc across krg ? Threatening your only buyer of oil with arbitration can't be a good idea given current payment delays? I think krg also won recently some arbitration so not sure genl might have such a strong case?
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Agree. It's very big news. The whole sector is now in question in krg and there could be contagion today across the players?
All IMO dyor
Sadly this has become a lot risky now I think. How can you threaten your only buyer of oil with arbitration and not expect them to run you into the ground with other tactics around payment,etc to protect their interests? The whole sector has come into question in krg. Krg could attempt to make things worse for genel?
All IMO dyor
Icb- agree, appraisal wells are less risky than exploration wells but not a sure shot imo. Char has potential but only if its drill shows that Repsol and Dana possibly left a lot of gas resources dormant. If there is more commercial resources then thats great for char. But sceptical as to why Dana would relinquish Anchois license? Anyone knows the reasoning? For Repsol, we can give benefit of the doubt regarding wanting bigger discovery but Dana should have been fine if it had at least a TCF,?
All IMO dyor
There are so many appraisal wells that have failed. Recently there was also Charlie appraisal well by pmo 88e;
Mosaic Oil Says Churchie 5 Appraisal Well Non-commercial
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/17158/mosaic_oil_says_churchie_5_appraisal_well_noncommercial/
Tullow Oil finds thin non-commercial reservoirs in Teak appraisal well
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/35464/tullow-oil-finds-thin-non-commercial-reservoirs-in-teak-appraisal-well-42358.html
Cobra gas appraisal well tests non-commercial
https://www.offshore-mag.com/drilling-completion/article/16780398/cobra-gas-appraisal-well-tests-noncommercial
First appraisal well at Glengorm field in UK North Sea ‘not commercial’
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/315697/first-appraisal-well-glengorm-uk-north-sea-not-commercial/
Tullow finds no commercial oil at Zaedyus-2, offshore French Guiana
https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/newstullow-commercial-oil-zaedyus-well-offshore-french-guiana
All IMO dyor
All appraisal wells have a COS number just like exploration or development wells. Appraisal wells or even development wells can fail. The COS is higher in appraisal wells compared to exploration wells but it is lower than development wells. But any of the wells can fail and are not guaranteed, irrespective of whether there is an existing proven discovery.
For instance, failure of CNOOCs Glengorm appraisal well, just a few months ago ;
https://www.oedigital.com/news/486943-cnooc-s-glengorm-south-well-fails-to-deliver
All IMO dyor
Do you have a link that refers to that tcf number which Repsol / Dana were looking for? The nearby wells all were dry I think including one with kosmos and fastnet, ex prd CEO company?
The latest char estimated resources seems based off of just legacy Repsol 3D seismic reprocessing. Is anyone aware who processed this data and who was the CPR provider for Namibia, it's not the same one for Anchois, is it?
This article says the gas pricing used in char plans is unrealistic? Has there been any indication what Morocco would be willing to pay?
Morocco Gas Development: Don’t Hold Your Breath
https://www.mees.com/2020/9/11/corporate/morocco-gas-development-dont-hold-your-breath/62206900-f435-11ea-8db4-7f54f7a2aa5a
"The most unrealistic element of the plans is a presumption Morocco would be willing to pay $8/mn BTU (˜$8/’000 ft³) for its gas, in line with the price Morocco has in recent times paid for imports from Algeria which averaged just over 90mn cfd for 2019.
For sure Morocco would be glad to lessen its dependence on its eastern neighbor, with which it has a fractious relationship (MEES, 5 June). But it has other options: a surge in coal and solar capacity mean that since last year the country has enjoyed a power surplus (MEES, 7 August)."
Cheers
All IMO dyor
It's disappointing that the amount of equity given vs the well and back costs etc. gotten in return apart from the drop or drill, seismic. The farm out partner got a great deal. Would have thought there would be at least one drill in 2022 from the new farm out to fill in, in case Selene doesn't get firm drill scheduled for 2022? Hard to see Selene being drilled given the big downgrade on resources? Anyways we'll see how things go.
All IMO dyor
Klein - do you have a link to any article where it refers to that 3tcf number? Don't think a big player would leave 3tcf like that. Repsol has a discovery in Bolivia with 1 TCF of reserves and prospective resources. Hard to see them leaving Anchois 3tcf like that even if costs were high?
All IMO dyor
Been in these since 0.85p when sneller was building position. But new farm in first drill timeline is disappointing with first drill not until 2024? So no real drill action till May'22... And Maybe Dewar news.? Any other positive news I'm missing?
All IMO dyor
Anchois discovery - Repsol had termed the discovery "sub-commercial", any specific reasons why?
https://www.mees.com/2021/3/5/geopolitical-risk/repsol-shell-leave-morocco-repsol-quits-iraqi-kurdistan/f0317400-7dbc-11eb-9a0a-0f3f8dcdac5e
All IMO dyor
Agree. Shell are huge so they don't need to move as fast and can drag their feet as long as they want to. Unfortunately for delt there is no option but to watch the £2mn per year cash burn rate until the Selene well is decided or the new license drop or drill is decided. May'22 spud is the only news to look forward to I suppose now realistically? And maybe Dewar news?
Sadly, even after the farm out news, the broker sees the first well drilled by the new operator in 2024 which is a long way with new cash required way before that imo. I'd have thought with the new farm out the drill might been fast tracked but 2024 seems awfully long even after so much work done on the licenses by delt(granted it's not 3d seismic)?
All IMO dyor
If you look at the link posted by OR which has the broker note- end of page 1, there is a table with the forecasted year end 2021 cash position. According to the note, the cash position for deltic at year end 2021 is £9.2mn. While the year end 2022 cash position says that all of this £9mn will be expensed next year with the only well scheduled of Pensacola .
The new farm in RNS gives an estimate of upto $25mn per well. Very expensive for gas wells imo. Of course, commodity and wider inflation has been rampaging so no one knows if it will go above that number by the time of drill next year ?
All IMO dyor
No. That's based on just drilling the May'22 Pensacola well. Not Selene. Well investment decision has not been made for Selene yet and if you read the results RNS, Selene had its P50 resources downgraded from 629 BCF to 271 BCF. That's a big downgrade and not sure if Shell will decide based on materiality for their 50% stake to drill Selene ? Recoverable for them will be much lower in Selene than Pensacola plus the downgrade makes it difficult economically to drill Selene?
Anyways the year end cash of £9m amd then you subtract £5mn for Pensacola, delt is left with c.£2mn by May'22 if the math is right? So there's no way Selene is funded in the current cash resources?
Delt has good gas prospects but cash to drill those prospects is the problem as none of the farm outs have agreed to carry delt fully for any of the drills?
All IMO dyor
Cheers for that.
They see the first drill on these new farmed out licenses to be 2023 assuming seismic is done in q4 this year. Chances are the first drill of cadence or any first of these high risk prospects will be in 2024 - that's mighty long. Seems like no action till then on these licenses until revision of the 23% COS of the main prospects?
Shell is worse as they never prioritize exploration drills and with the climate towards E&Ps in North Sea lately, is there any risk that Shell could again postpone the May'22 drill citing technical challenges,etc. as they did with the original well decision months ago? Is the May'22 spud "expected" date by Shell or the drill is fully firmed up?
And the brokers cash forecast is worse than thought. The note suggests that delt might run out of cash within next 12 months assuming May'22 drill goes ahead, as all the license and well costs will be coming due to delt for their share of well costs?
Delt has great prospects and everything hinges on the first drill being successful assuming it goes ahead in May'22? Until then is there any other news to look forward to ? Maybe if Dewar gets some farm in interest?
All IMO dyor
The only firm seismic seems to be at license P2428 and possibly P2567, other licenses seem to give it as a possibility .
What is the current cash position post Mar' 21? £1.8-£2 mn per year seems to be the burn rate according to 2019 estimate.
Do you have a link or reference stating the rough cost to drill a well in North Sea is close to $20mn or lower? Cash position would possibly be around £8-9mn year end and then it will be very tight going into the drill in May'22 imo with £5-6 mn off that going towards May drill . Also surprised to see Selene which has had a big downgrade to its P50 estimate in the recent results rns?
Anyways the new operator has got a good deal for the amount of working interest and costs, compared to what Shell got with Selene, etc.
All IMO dyor
At 30% equity , assuming $25mn for drilling the well would mean close to $7.5 mn that delt will have to put in for its 30% share of the drill.
After that it seems it would need cash for every drill? First shell drill due in May ' 22, sadly a long time to get excited?
Would have hoped for Dewar farm out as it's oil instead of gas. Exploration wells in North Sea can cost upto $ 25mn per well, so oil exploration well might have given bigger bang for the buck. With $25mn cost per well would mean delts current cash would drain fast by the time first well is drilled in May '22 right? Any thoughts?
All IMO dyor
Any guesses on the size of the resource? At least a million ounces jorc looks plausible? Cheers
Looks like delt has farmed out but on pretty fair terms. 70% farm out for 70% of costs of drill. Although pre drill costs would be less of a worry for delt. Obviously no drill has been planned or firmed up- can't see a drill on these licenses before 2023, long time sadly as 3d and processing will take a long time given other exploration priorities for the partner like Mexico, Suriname.
So delt will have to pay upto $7.5mn for any firmed up drill?
What's the current cash position for delt?
All IMO dyor