Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Lancy - bigger shop window? Would rather prefer an investor like @baroninvestment coming on PRDs shareholder register who not just has a huge HNWI PI follower base but seems like he's actually an investor, and not trader who runs with a few % gains.
Now that will be impressive if Twitters Barondaytrading gets on PRDs register. He is the type of conviction filled shareholder who waits through full potential of the business. He called sqz at 5p and think held till £1 +. He had also called SLP at 7p and a lot had followed him in but think was off a year or two before the transformation of SLP began. That's the sort of shareholder PRD needs imo.
All IMO and could be wrong always dyor
Nico - you are over estimating his followers. He's barely got c.1,600 followers.
Not a big conviction holder if you get enticed by a few % rise in PRD, irrespective of the capital.
IMO dyor
Good to get rid of these short termers and shake out the weak holders. Consolidation is always good after a rise - it sets a new higher base before we move to MEMs 25p+ levels pre spud.
When CEO is the biggest shareholder with c.20% shareholding - that is a big margin of safety for all shareholders.
IMO dyor
Good to shake out short term weak holders. A lot of new potential investors are waiting for pull back /consolidation to buy or add especially pre Isa and post Isa season . PRD is now in a lot of people's radars especially with PGs interview yesterday regarding the low risk gas prospects and wider news flow outstanding.
All IMO dyor
Market is slowly realizing that PRD is not just a drill play, and so much more news is outstanding in following weeks and months on CO2 EOR contracts, IE and new green sector investment front that even the MMs could be blindsided if PRD dips it's toe in to one of the hot green energy sector buzz word investments(hydrogen /green energy /renewables).
Hence lies the dilemma of looking at PRD, myopically and valuing just on the Morocco drill bit.
All IMO dyor
MEM - Spot on regarding timing. And PG said this is just the start...
After all PG did end the interview yesterday by highlighting
"our success to date is all very good but it's only starting point of where we want to go. So the next 12 months is going to be very exciting and very very value creating for us and our shareholders "
IMO dyor
Well said.
And PRD will be testing 2-3 reservoirs same as Rharb basin.
PG putting it as -
"obviously we are very very very confident as you might expect, given my experience in Morocco, of finding gas" doesn't give conviction then might as well class it as an appraisal well. Maybe then they might hold on to the Golden tickets?
As @iancassel says " Great companies immediately make you regret selling them"
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
*old buyers selling to new holders
The MMs need sellers. And it's a good thing for consolidation to happen as old sellers sell to new buyers who hopefully have more conviction to hold through real value realization of the three business segments, rather than just pre drill tourists coming in to catch a wave. Weak hands need to be shaken out before MEMs 25p+ levels can be reached pre spud.
But there's a very important point a lot seem to be missing I.e. PRD is not just a one trick pony just on the Moroccan drill. Most of these market participants only seem to be attributing value to the drill bit and tend to ignore the massive value in Trinidad and IE segments that PG has rightly highlighted today. And the Green Energy badge can attract a whole host of green energy sector investor cavalry. And there is an enormous amount of news flow due in the next few weeks and months as PG mentioned today, that's outstanding on the non drill side. New contracts to be signed in Trinidad Co2 EOR business segment, IE news, New green energy investment, etc and an exciting 12 months to look forward to. The amount of market attention to these value adding non drill news could be very significant.
Could PRDs CO2 EOR proven segment alone be valued at more than £50mn+ underpinning a £50mn market cap on its own ? Some do think so;from adfn
"With a full service licensed CO2 EOR business along with multi year contracts and tie ups with bigger E&Ps and more follow on growth potential and green energy sector pricing valuation, £50mn could be minimum for Trinidad Co2 EOR business segment.
If people only understand Morocco drill and gas exploration they will only assign value to that segment.
That's the problem with anyone choosing to derisk before the drill just because price has gone up, when you have a drill which itself is low risk and then there's so much value in other two segments that you would need a premium valuation to take into account all 3 segments, and value them at least 1.5 times the value you would assign to just Morocco drill pre spud. "
All IMO always dyor
Bully1985 - it was not just mentioned in an interview but was also in PRDs RNS on 20th Jan.
And imo PRD is not just a one trick pony but it's got 2 other valuable segments, which lot of posters seem to be missing and hence they are valuing PRD only on the drill bit and ignoring other segments. And from the direction of EOR regulation in Trinidad, it seems TXP might end up using PRDs service for CO2 EOR in Trinidad ;
I've put an excerpt below from PRDs RNS re Trinidad gas discoveries' valuation, if you are interested.
"Guercif project economics compare favourably with those for recent gas discoveries and planned gas developments onshore Trinidad, a jurisdiction that the Company is very familiar with. Based on realising the maximum potential of the industrial market for gas in Morocco, one BCF of gas in Morocco is valued at up to ten times the equivalent value of one BCF of gas onshore Trinidad. This reflects gas prices paid by private industry in Morocco up to five times those prices paid by State utilities for Trinidad gas; no taxation on operating profits for 10 years in Morocco; and lower capital and operating costs. Guercif gas is expected to be dry gas whereas recent Trinidad gas discoveries are rich in liquids and therefore have a significantly higher CO2 emissions footprint."
Of course all IMO and might be wrong so always dyor
MEM - completely agree. Watching it again gives you more insight into PGs thinking and PRDs direction especially on bits you might have missed at the first time.
For example, highlighting PRDs Green Energy batch and the bit around Green Energy opportunities and investments that PRD is looking at, and PG mentions about the number of parties that have approached PRD for a symbiotic relationship where "we can give something and they can give something ". Just imagine if PRD gains exposure to hydrogen or an alternative green energy / renewables segment via an investment/partnership, the sp will get turbocharged into rerating as a green sector stock solely off the back of that. Look at the green sector plays and their market values being rerated at the mention of Green Energy, renewables, hydrogen,etc. PRD actually has one of those segments proven and derisked, which the market is barely noticing.
PG also says market has started to take notice of PRDs potential and "it's simply because our management is recognized as can do, will do management ".
And most importantly he closes the call by highlighting "our success to date is all very good but it's only starting point of where we want to go. So the next 12 months is going to be very exciting and very very value creating for us and our shareholders "
All IMO dyor
GRH - do you still have a target of £15 per share post recent news on IE and today's interview?
Even half of that will be truly transformational for all of the shareholders alongside PG. Would be surprised if most of the current holders stay the course to see if such a number or anywhere close to it, materializes. Buying into a winner is one thing, holding it to greater levels and heights is another.
IMO dyor
From the interview
On Morocco - testing 2 to 3 reservoirs, rig less testing, another 6 drill locations once rig is back from Sdx in Q3.
"And that's to appraise immediately the Mou 1 well but also to look at 3 or 4 prospects for big material resources"
Direct quote from PG - " obviously we are very very very confident as you might expect, given my experience in Morocco, of finding gas"
First Gas from development will be q2 /q3next year, thats fast.
Obviously my interpretation. Imo dyor
MEM - another interesting thing I noticed re Morocco. From the PRD circular below, it seems we are also testing the existing gas shows at Grf-1, which means it's drilling at a gas discovery site which would make the drill very low risk or as good as an appraisal well? That's what my interpretation from the below. Do you interpret it the same or am I misinterpretting the text?
"GRF-1 was drilled in 1972 less than two kilometres from the proposed well to be drilled by the Company. Well logs over an interval interpreted as gas-bearing by a previous operator in 2006 are now being re-evaluated by Houston-based NuTech, a company specialising in applying new technology to old well logs. The first well location has been optimised to ensure that this significant potential gas target can be added to the existing gas targets. This will potentially maximise well deliverability in a success case to support the option being developed for initial monetisation of gas"
All IMO dyor
Cheers GRH. SDXs success onshore Morocco might be one of the reasons ConocoPhillips was attracted next door to PRD especially if there is such good discovery rates. Given a c.$1.8 mn per BCF unrisked value, Morocco alone with a small 100 Bcf discovery could equate to $180 mn to PRD.
The risked valuation would be something to look forward to for best estimate case at "only" 40% recovery factor.
All IMO dyor
Happysparrow - worth keeping an eye on PRD as well. It's got a low risk, high impact gas exploration drill coming up onshore Morocco in the next few months. Apparently in a recent RNS, PRDs CEO compared value of its onshore Moroccan gas prospects with TXPs Trinidad gas prospects on a per BCF basis with each BCF in Morocco being valued upto 10 times TXPs Trinidad ones. It was compared against recent onshore Trinidad gas discoveries which I suppose means TXPs discoveries.
All IMO dyor
MEM - PRD does suggest there is a play opening big gas accumulation at Mou;
From the PRD circular;
"The Directors believe that the Moulouya Prospect therefore represents a low risk proven gas play that is a potentially play-opening, opportunity for shallow gas in multiple, high quality reservoirs at depths in the range 2,000 to 5,000 feet. Significantly the potential for a very large accumulation exists due to the lack of compartmentalisation of the mapped seismic anomaly - unlike the situation in the producing Rharb Basin where the structures are small but with a very high success rate for finding gas."
IMO dyor
I think PG did spot Tendrara TE -5 and based on which follow on exploration sou sp went on an exponential move and I think might have even crossed the £1 bn market cap level just based on Morocco prospects.
PG does know onshore Morocco very well hence he says it's a low risk drill, especially with the NuTech analysis, off set well having gas shows and multiple zones being tested with the single well. And then ConocoPhillips has just landed next door in the Mesorif license area, and who knows if Guercif and Mesorif are one Giant hydrocarbon system then we might have a big suitor willing to buy us out right next door.
All IMO dyor
BillyRay - definitely looking forward to PGs interview with Malcy next week. Let's hope Malcy keeps it for 25 Mins+ as before rather than a 10 min one and asks some questions around PRDs promotion of its green energy sector batch, getting the word out via some broker research tie ups, possible revenue estimates from Trinidad and more insights into wider Morocco, Trinidad and IE operations.
With the amount of value driving news that can come any day, a small 7% dilution via capital raise on Fri, definitely gives investors an excuse to increase their holdings by c.7% to get their ownership level back to the pre raise.
All IMO dyor
BillyRay - Cheers for transcribing. Strange thing is that everytime I watch that interview and PGs drive and confidence in Morocco, and especially him being a 20% shareholder, I get a strong urge to buy more PRD and increase holdings, and should! Especially move capital from other stocks, given the strong upside at PRD in comparison to almost all that are available in E&P space and beyond.
As someone highlighted earlier about the ISA season that's going to be upon us, in an ISA, having a loser or less upside holds is more expensive than the losses itself by that losing stock, because there is an opportunity cost of that capital not pulling it's weight in a taxwrapper.
We wait for Monday...
All IMO and could be wrong dyor