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I think I3e is one of the few if any, on the Canadian market who can give the Canadian investors exposure to a North Sea oil discovery/exploration play...so more attractive to the Canadian investors.
All IMO dyor
Link from one of the few who share research on Twitter. Can the size of the IE prize dwarf the size of the Moroccan prize?
"#PRD Size of the FRSU project prize
"Calcs by Paul Deane, an energy researcher at University College Cork, estimates this to be worth a total of €2.6 billion a year to Predator, or €26 billion over 10 years"
Existing & sail in, sail out infrastructure"
https://www.businesspost.ie/energy/new-firms-lng-plans-would-make-ireland-major-exporter-of-gas-95728294
https://twitter.com/dmarshall_uk/status/1359110967993466883?s=21
IMO dyor
Hi Sefton - Spot on. " lack of willing sellers " PRDs trended up but on Twitter there is barely any mention of it - suggests the amount of scope for PIs to actually take notice, research and buy in for the ride. Usually Twitter is filled with big groups of PIs spreading word about their apparent " diamond in the rough " stocks. But PRDs got very few who talk about it on Twitter especially hardly any who share proper research.
PG has 20% of the stock then theres more in the choir who might not part with any, south of £1 especially when unrisked best estimate( not even high case) NPV just for Morocco is north of £2. And as more PIs research they realize what sort of prize is available apart from Morocco, esp in Trinidad and IE and it's all available for less than £50mn mcap. I think it was MEM who might be right with his pre contract, Morocco etc. news estimate of 25p?
Ps. It's not just you Sefton, many in addition to the choir are waiting to buy in/add more on any chance we would get. Maybe bodes well I suppose to get a new base set of above 12p
Of course all IMO dyor
From PRDs website it seems like Ramhead will be another TCF scale gas drill... Website still to be updated with the new time line for the IE drill
"Ram Head reservoir engineering study shows potential development via 10 wells capable of delivering 400 mm cfgpd and recovering over 1 TCF of gas in 11 years.
Screening study to assess the technical feasibility and commercial viability of re-entering the 49/19-1 well to test discovered gas in order to calibrate the proposed scoping development plan. Results indicate that the re-entry is feasible and very cost effective compared to drilling a new well.
Planning for a well re-entry will be undertaken during 2019 with a view to executing the programme in 2021, subject to all fully compliant regulatory consents and approvals."
https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/operations/ireland/
IMO dyor
Hi TWM - yes, the doc is very interesting especially on the points you raise regarding condensate and the deeper reservoir.
PRDs circulars on the website summarize the Morocco drill aspects very well.
Key points I could find ;
# The Moulouya prospect covers at least 40 square kms and is supported by multiple seismic amplitude anomalies.
# Off set 1972 drill (GRF-1) had dry gas shows less than 1.5 kms away from a seismic amplitude anomaly, with up to 128 ft of untested gas pay at the base of GF-1
# Two micro seepage surveys carried out in 2006/7 identified dry gas around the GRF-1 well is soil samples
# Directors believe (Moulouya) prospect represents a low risk proven gas play that is potentially play opening
# The potential for a very large accumulation exists due to the lack of compartmentalisation of the mapped seismic anomaly - unlike the Rharb basin where the structures are small but with a very high success rate for finding gas.
# SLR carried out a CPR for the potential in place hydrocarbons in the Moulouya prospect and the Triassic prospect in the Miocene Tortonian and Triassic TAGI reservoirs.
# SLR state that a total combined net best estimate prospective resource for the first tier prospects, are 474 BCF (above 900 BCF high estimate!), representing an unrisked NPV for the best estimate net to PRD gas resources of $831.7m . That's above £2 per share if everything goes right in the best estimate case!
Any other points I might have missed?
Cheers
All IMO dyor
Yet... I think a 3% holding triggers a Holdings rns which is equivalent to 7.2 million shares!?
Btw noticed Oct 2020 RNS refers to the following point for exercise of PGs options which is quite interesting. 1000bopd revenues would be massive as market obviously is not pricing in this potential from Trinidad? ;
"Incremental total gross production from wells for which the Company receives revenues of 1,000 BOPD (measured over a consecutive 30 day period) has been achieved."
All IMO dyor
GRH - well put. Yes, surprised no one on here picked up on it re possibility of condensate. I suppose it kind of links to your second point about 'knowledge' but maybe the choir is a bit limited on in depth geological knowledge hence we didn't discuss it on here? Think PG has enough for all in the choir to be in tune.
PG does see a 5 well drill program and especially with ConocoPhillips exploring next door, would be interesting to see if and how the neighbors are joined. Gas to power market is a huge opportunity.
Sefton - agree. But think under £35-55mn market cap is bargain if you have a proven green energy segment and a transformational well coming up, and its before you account for new CO2 EOR contracts which can come any day, in bulk or one by one?
All IMO dyor
TWM - apologies if you have already shared this pdf Hassi-Berkane-Presentation. Has interesting insights on Morocco prospects and more info on Guercif license.
Does give weight to GRHs suggestion that condensate could also be present.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/upload/SponsorFile/File/2014_08/Maxim-Resourcrs---Hassi-Berkane-Presentation-July-2014.pdf
It's IMO.dyor
Well said MEM - With such rises, consolidation is needed so that weak holders and short term traders get shaken out and a new base gets set for a new cohort of shareholders. Usually PIs scale in so there will constant streams of buys/adds.
And as usually is the case with the big holders taking big positions, it can nudge other big PIs to do their DD on PRD and that can propel PRD more given the free float, if they choose to get in as well given the low mcap. This validation by big PIs also causes other PIs to add PRD to their list of potential investments and they lie in wait for any pull back to get in or add and hence creating support for each pull back. Churn is important to make a market. And we have a lot of PIs waiting for any pull back to add or get in as old holders exit creating room for new buyers especially given the upcoming ISA window.
And GRH might enlighten more on a 100 bagger experience - but Imo to have a 100 bagger you need to hold through a 10, 20, 50, 72 bagger... To get to a 100 bagger.
All IMO, I could be wrong so always dyor
Cheers TWM. And stumbled across this another AGM video by PG from Fastnet era, a bit older than the one you shared.
It's impressive how PGs keen on share price performance and the main driver of it alongside monetization strategy that will crystalize value . Having a CEO who is a 20% shareholder, always provides comfort and a big margin of safety for current shareholders and is a big attraction for many new investors. Of course in addition to the massive potential of the business segments.
https://youtu.be/ybyUd0tBMMg
All IMO dyor
The best thing that could come out of these surges is that we get a new base of conviction filled holders rather than ones who'd run with their 20-30%. As the old holders churn and new holders come hopefully sucking out more free float and holding for the full ride rather than minor surges, the base of the choir might enlarge.
All IMO dyor
Honestly don't like such surge days as it attracts a lot of short term punters who create unnecessary volatility and MMs have a field day by shaking them all about, and in the process get some decent holders shaken out as well. Small, steady and sustainable rises are better.
All IMO dyor
Hi Sefton - correct, that's what I meant. In all the current holders of PRD, there might be a specific segment who are here for CO2 EOR prize and a certain segment for the IE prize and others for the Moroccan prize . For the CO2 EOR and IE segment holders, the Moroccan prize is just an add-on upside and doesn't bother much what goes on with it.
As if someone who bought into Apple stock in 2000s because of the iPod proposition and didn't realize Macbooks and iPhone would actually take over Apple value narrative.
So for each segment holders there is a lot of value that they see in their specific segment but the maximum value delivery would be when all three come to fruition at once or in stages through disposals and returns.
Ps. Saw first tweet from PRDs Twitter account in months. Forgot PRD had a social media account!
All IMO dyor
GRH - Cheers for your post. Yes I did forget to highlight the "bit" part but I suppose if you have floored the expectations , it creates a big margin of safety for the upside. Always good to under-promise and over-deliver than the other way round. And given that PRDs market cap is below £35-50mn, those expectations are only limited to a small segment of the market participants, who see dislocated alpha at PRD and it's mostly within the new and old members of the choir.
If current market cap is below £30mn, how much would you attribute each to the 3 segments? One of them is proven and derisked in Trinidad. If you ignore Morocco prospects completely for a second, do you think the derisked co2 EOR business segment and IE prospects can be valued, packed and sold off for say £30mn at least? If yes, then Moroccan drill prospect is not being valued anywhere or vice versa.
All IMO dyor
Boom - well put. Most importantly PRD is drilling the prospects which are onshore. Offshore gas not as attractive as onshore and given its onshore and also close to pipeline /infrastructure, monetizing becomes very straight forward. No point in having TCFs and billions of bbls of oil /gas resources in remote offshore corners or new offshore basins if they can't be monetized or developed cheaply with great IRRs.
Also, if SDX is excited about 12-16 BCF sized discoveries onshore Morocco, wonder what kind of reaction would be if PRD has a bit bigger low risk discoveries onshore Morocco?
All IMO dyor
When you have PRDs market cap underpinned just by CO2 EOR proven segment - Morocco drill is the extra transformational upside. If co2 EOR business segment and IE gets valued at c. £30mn then Morocco is free upside and hence downside is protected because PRDs not a single drill stock like PANR, 88E, etc.
Possibly PANR capital will start flowing to PRD given they will have to wait another year for full testing of drill zones. And maybe TXP holders might move to PRD as well as winners from last year move to other potential winners. And we are not even at £30mn market cap yet that accounts for CCS EOR segment. If PG and IE lines up another drill at IE; Corrib south then it will be explosive to the market cap.
All IMO dyor
Cheers hydrogen.
In terms of Macro - Yes, green energy plays might just be starting up in this new green energy revolution! But oil is just as important if not more for foreseeable future and for oil price, just following Saudi A actions and words in.opec might be enough to determine oil price direction - they are like the federal reserve, you can't fight them and they will win eventually as shown from last year's events.
Fed and Powell will keep the QE on for long until US employment is fully back, and the market will keep partying until they decide to take the punchbowl away. Of course dollar might face the brunt of it which is good for commodities. But I would caution against miners now as they had a great run over the last year and most big ones like RIO, AAL etc. Are close to all time highs while oilies have been left in the dust - so flows might move to oilies from miners. Miners might still have upside but maybe not as much as oilies. Also remember as oil prices go up the costs of miners go up massively and hence their margins go down, as energy costs of extraction for miners is more than 50% of the total prod. costs, for example for copper extraction/production costs are around 50% of the production costs for big miners Kaz, Glen, etc. But it's all IMO and could be wrong.
In terms of Micro - Yes, it's PRD - Predator Oil and Gas, it's a Green Energy and also a gas exploration play (think TXP whose sp performance over last year has exactly been like GGP but in gas exploration space rather than gold exploration!) and best of all its Carbon Capture and Sequestration EOR business alone can underpin upto £50mn of market cap vs the current c. £20 mn, so massive gas drill is on top with no real value attributed. Obviously all IMO but give it a deeper look especially the CEO interviews and you might like what you find.
Yes, oilers are taking off although it might just be the start of a trend change from tech heavy / growth stocks to value stocks I.e. Oilers like GENL, GKP, SAVE, I3E and PHAR instead of heavily indebted ones who have debt maturities coming up like TLW, ENQ. Tlw especially has convertible bonds and it's refinancing coming due next quarter so chances are debt to equity might dilute Tlw a lot. Best to go with relatively strong balance sheet ones.
all IMO dyor
Hydrogen - Cheers for your past green energy stock suggestions.
If interested - Take a look at PRD. It's got a recently derisked Carbon Capture and Sequestration EOR business that's yet to come on the Green energy investors' radar, and also has a TCF scale low risk gas drill coming up. All for £22mn market cap.
Look at their 3 segments - all transformational in size. You might find interesting.
Haven't seen hasiba for a while here but he's in I3E in size which is also a great Canadian oil play c.10kbpd at £50mn Market cap.
All IMO dyor
I3e seems to be coming on Canadian investors radar. Canadian oil stocks are flying and this disparity between tsx and London could attract arbitrage traders?
Maybe IG effect is still suppressing the London I3e market?
All IMO dyor
Cheers Tony. Surprised that no direct equity purchases they did especially given the amount of value destruction from highs and even surprised management stayed the same after that drop in sp over years.
Curious how keen the big institutional holder are on divi when share buybacks might be better than dividends to hoover up the cheap shares and boost future eps ? Are these IIs sticky holders or just Note holders converted shareholders?
All IMO dyor