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Changing the subject slightly, has anybody seen what is happening in the Ukraine? Reports of the US ‘watching developments’... Do we think Russia’s antics could affect the oil price etc, etc.
Rye Bay, the most aggressively short seller of PFC has been buying back since last week’s major refinancing news and bullish report from SocGen, who suggest the SFO settlement may be substantially lower and come sooner than the market has been expecting. Think it likely that PFC’s bankers have some comfort on both SFO and PFC’s outlook otherwise they wouldn’t extend (its mostly an undrawn revolving credit facility, providing liquidity for working capital purposes). Should see more short covering next week. By the way, Wood Group bought Amec, which was under SFO investigation. If PFC was valued on Wood’s rating, it would be trading well above £5. PFC is an absolute bargain down here.
Lucyw
What SFO believe or not is Irrelevant.
What matters is proof - without doubt.
Also some of their use of proof has been shown to be inadmissible. Something along the lines of demanding records from Foreign Countries/Companies.
Also why is SFO trying to police the World? And apportion blame back to UK companies.
Lucyw,
Thanks for your concern about my decision to make this investment here.
I have done plenty research before investing here and I will be investing on my own opinions, thoughts and research. I don't think you'll be able to shake me or others here unless you provide sufficient information.
If the fine is to be more, then so be it.
I'm personally more interested in PFC strengthening order book and the future prospects in the industry with improving margins.
At the moment (end of Q1/21), i'm fairly happy with the order book and financials of Petrofac. I'm also very optimistic about Q2/21 for Petrofac and FY21, as it stands.
Good luck to you at Wood.
Lucyw
What bad luck that you didnt turn up a long time ago and give us your "valuable" opinions then and opened people's eyes to such an "incredible" insight...
All a bit cruel to leave it all to that last minute when there is sooooo little time for us to change track....
Now that IS being a party pooper...
Lucyw, thanks. You've made your point. I'm happy to hold nevertheless as I think all the reasons you quote are already factored in. I'm slightly under at present, but very comfortable holding. If I lose the lot, it really will not change my life.
Meanwhile, perhaps you will leave it a few weeks to the results and then we can all see who is right. I suspect however, your motive is far from benign. Hope I'm wrong. ATB.
Slift
I can see that you want very much to believe that the fine will be a trifle so I don't want to disappoint you. But what do you want me to do, lie to you? About 7 billion worth contracts have been obtained fraudulently and expect Petrofac to get away with a few million fine? Anyway, I don't want to be a party popper. I only make suggestions based on information I have and common sense. I don't work for SFO so can't give you the inside opinion. Let's wait and see
" but they never support it with a scrap of information. "
Yeah..too true..but that chappie Poker...you know ..the unruly heathen...i seen him on here quite a few times...he posted many times...in many years...he post good information...he no have empty head
He make good chips too...very tasty
To Stockready1
Thank you. I don't know the chap you mentioned but know that every chat room is full of people promoting their own vest interest and nothing else. All they do is ramping or deramping the share, depending on their positions, but they never support it with a scrap of information. You can always recognise those people, they behave like angry mob if someone disagrees with them. But that doesn't bother me, social media is known for that) All I can say, don't listen to angry people, they're angry for a reason as their investments don't do well. Don't listen to anyone here in fact, just read the information if it's given, analyze it, and make your own independent decisionn. That's the best advice anyone can give in investing!
Josh
You got that cyanide pill ready?.. the shame of surrender is going to be unbearable
Sharefall
Thank you for your fair comments
I think you need to extend your search in to this special case (poker) and dig more to understand why we have this views about him. I respect everyone till they start being aggressive and abusive then they get 10 times back the same from me.
While you say it is Ok to have different views which is very much welcome...Poker on the other hand have this mentality that he can't see anyone against his views and he start being aggrasive and abusive even to the point of following me in WG board and posting non sense on PFC (all now deleted), what was not even fair to other posters there, so i am sorry to say this guy is mentally sick and you still don't know him well.
But i have dealt with his kinds before, he doesn't scare me a slightest and i go no where till making sure this special case is dealt with and at least others here (and in other boards) realise how sick this person is and i honestly don't get any pleasures out of this.
I have no problem with anyone here or other boards but cannot and will not stand someone to bully others over their simple views because they think differently and potentially bringing opposites views
He is just a sad loser to me and others needs to dig deeper to get to know his arrogant and abusive nature when it comes to someone challanging him of BS he is spouting out in multiple boards
I truly thank you for sharing your views but you got to ask why me and Lucy and perhaps others feel and think this way about him
I leave you with that thought
All the best
Lucyw,
It must also be noted in your post that Wood made provision of $197m for the bribery offences on Unaoil investigation (a major scandal). This investigation is therefore being investigated by DOJ, SEC, COPFS, the SFO, etc. In fact, I believe Wood has said 6 authorities.
The amount that Wood has stated ($197m) respresents fines as a result of the UK, US and Brazillian Authorities.
The SFO fine here would be a fraction of this, maybe half.
IF I was a shorter I would be licking my lips. All this extra money they are gathering just screams they know a BIG fine is coming down on them, last time to sell I think.
To sharefall
Where did you get it from that I think Petrofac is terrible company? If you want to know my opinion, It was giving bribes because that's how business is done in the oil rich countries. Abu Dhabi only banned Petrofac from bidding because it's going through hell as well right now. Its a big case, which involves many companies like total and others, many senior government officials lost their seats, and country oil body wants to distance themselves from Petrofac for a while to save their heads. Don't expect they'll lift the ban before the SFO judgement (21 June). They'll wait a couple of months after it to let the sand settle and lift the ban only after that. Unfortunately, by that time most of bids will be gone, that's the problem. But then the share price reflects it pretty well now so not trying to spread doom and gloom, just give a fair and unbiased information. You want to be informed, don't you? Can't understand people who only want to listen to rampers. But that's up to them of course)
Poker, BTW, I have always found you to be entirely rationale in your posts across many stock chats you post on. Please carry on as many of us value your contribution. ATB
To Simplyme
Wood group was mentioned by me here, as an example of the fines the SFO gives. The fine was related to some subsidiary, which Wood bought after the fact, so Wood wasn't even involved in bribery in any shape or form. But when you buy some business you buy all related liabilities, hence the fine. The size of bribes involved there is a little joke compared with Petrofac, Wood has never been even shorted, and it never affected it's contracts. So judging on the Woods fine, you can see that Petrofac fine will be substantially more. But then the Woods price hasen't been affected much either, noever near like Petrofac's, just a 20-25% drop that won't stay long. I've invested quite a bit in Wood on the drop, that's why I know about it, did my research properly ?? As for Petrofac, the fine is going to be huge but shares dropped huge as well, so by no means I advise to sell. But I lost quite a lot with Petrofac (who expected the second confession of Lufkun? the least himself))). was selling on the ups and buying on the drops since to reduce the loss, reduced it to comfortable level, and want to play careful now. That's all. Ive done very well with other shares of mine so not particularly bothered other way, but I want some clarity before I invest in Petrofac again. I do a lot of research before I invest in anything so don't do it by half, which means when I lose it hurts
Lucyw, that is a totally unfair character portrayal of the poster Poker. Please can we stop personal insults, however politely it is put.
Stockready, you have very firm views that PFC is a terrible company. That is entirely ok as it's your opinion after your extensive research no doubt. You probably ate therefore short on this share, which is also entirely ok. Let's stick with polite chat and avoid making diagnosis that you are possibly unqualified to make. If you are a GP or psychiatrist by profession and are worried genuinely about a posters mental health do send admin a message advising what they should do. Publicly insulting so.eone is not the way. ATB
Lucy
Excellent observations and glad you raise this,
This guy ( poker ) have some serious and aggressive issues which turly shows his unstable state of mind and potential medical case with serious underlying issues.
He is throwing loads of rubbish all over the place thinking in this small match-box that is the absolute true ....a medical condition call "Schizotypal Personality Disorder"
His aggressive and his delusional BS truly worrying.
He needs help and needs help fast
He is truly knows nothing... please don't take him very seriously.
A clueless clown which more he talks more he sinks in the mud.
I am really glad you picked on this sick case and share your thoughts with us.
All the best
To Pokerchips
So I take it you judge validity of the comment by the commenter s name? And who's the idiot then? ?? It's only normal btw when people have the difference of opinions. It is abnormal when the whole chat room does nothing but ramp their own shares. Doesn't say much about their intelligence level. It looks like you drive everyone with a different opinion out of here with the mob like methods. If that's all you can do you shouldn't be an investor. Join Mafia and sell drugs, you'll do much better there))
I reckon "Lucyw" is another name creation of "Stockready1" ...sounds just the same and just as idiotic
Lucyw,
Don't worry yourself..we love the volatility....he are hardened to it.....no snowflakes here
I made £30k in one sell here in 2019.... others have done well too..so don't keep yourself up at night worrying about what anyone does on here
Nobody cares about you turning up out of the blue at the eleventh hour blabbering on about what you think some fine might be..
Go and find your own group to jabber to....
Slift .... good points
Size of any DPA agreement will be based on ability to pay.... otherwise what is point if it cannot be paid ?!
Pfc has not been charged, eirher criminally or civily. I think a Dpa will be agreed out of court with no admission of guilt. I think $200m spread over 4 years looks appropriate.
Then onwards and upwards !
Your gibberish stinks of desperation! Please do us all a favour and go bother another board
I see this board is full of rampers who bought the shares at the wrong time and desperate to keep them from falling further. You've been ramping these shares non stop here, it still hasn't stop them from going down more and more. So obviously, stock market has a different opinion. I don't give advise on buy or sell, I leave it people decide for themselves, I just share my thoughts on the size of the fine. Barclays pencilled £800 mln in December, before the second load of bribes, which doubled the previous amount, was revealed. You can shout at me, you can shout at Barclays, you can shout at hedge funds who've been shorting it mercylessly, but you can't avoid the truth. The reason this company's shares got so low is down to the size of the fine!!! What else, Iyoy think, drives them so low? If that's not obvious to you then you cant quite simply put 2 and 2 together! PS As I said, I don't I've any predictions on the share price moves, when company in trouble of this size it's impossible to predict. But Im sure they will be very volatile for the next 6 months at least, so get used to it and don't shoot the messenger)
who cares about a billion Dollar fine.... I got a mate in the US Treasury....he said he will print me out a Trillion Dollars if we need it.. he says he does it quite regularly :-)
Settle down...no worries