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Yes jolly and there were 'prominent' (thats a kind way to put it) posters here last week - you know who you are - stating categorically that it was going to be blue skies all the way following the meeting last Friday. Blue all the way this week the price was going only one way - up. Apparently you couldn't pick stock up around the placing price. Such a plethora of b*lls*it.
You have to learn how to read ALL RNS's and understand exactly what they are saying and what they are not saying. You have to put aside all 'feelings'. Never fall in love with a stock. It will kill you if you do. Make a dispassionate conclusion of the content in announcements. And most of all Be prepared to change your strategy. They have given out enough clues up to this point and AIM is NOT a patient market.
For this to get to a pound now it will have to make a £178m MC. That is roughly the current NCYT MC and they are selling all over the world and have several months sales already under their belt. That is a big ask in terms of whether there will be the demand when antibody levels are dropping off sharply after a few months. And whether management credibility can be restored.
*Tory not Tiry! Sos for the typo. Spellchecker thinks it knows everything, lol.
Kopfkissen, I am not even a Tiry but in fairness to the government they never said the Isle of Wight was about achieving world class standards in itself. It was a pilot. A pilot means a test run.
come back in august and hopefully you'll see all the good work unfolding!
sorry I don't get it - why will countries want to order antibody tests - doesn't mean anything as no one knows whether it makes people immune or unable to transmit
MB - ive been fairly negative today 9 as opposed to my normal positive) But only because of the statement that should have read "weekly" Errors like this do tend to annoy me - especially as they are avoidable or easily dealt with if the omission was publicly declared and a correction published. We'd be back at upper 30s in moments.
Most people dont read here - just see the RNS
I hold at an average of just under 50p and it amazes me this is so low - and yes i suppose it upset s me - good reason to leave emotion at the door but easily said that done
BUT ive no doubt things are going up from here - just wish they were going up from 50p lol
At least TILS is keeping me mentally balanced
Mb. I have filtered Jolly.
Atb
Thanks for your input Jollyspeculator.
Yes i did believe they could do this without a placing and i still believe they could have done looking at the results today, based on the expectation at the time that capacity would be 200k poc tests and 300k Elisa tests. I never expected the plan was so ambitious as to increase capacity to 4 times the level expected. If i had know at the time how ambitious they were with production, then clearly expansion of that level needed funds.
I also am still a little perplexed given the good standing of the finances and the high level of cash generation expected how they didn't manage to secure some short term loan facility. Or better still some kind of government loan or grant. At a time the government were handing out loans left right and centre it's fair to assume this would have been an easy route for ODX given that their reason for it was to support government strategy. I suspect their is an element of risk aversion from the BOD and broker advise with self interest. I am still not entirely comfortable with this, but it is what it is we have to reassess things as they develop. Does the fact that we had a placing change any of the potential that i saw in the company....? Well yes it does, it makes the opportunity 4 times bigger for the sake of 20% dilution, which means net we would still be over 3x better off with the dilution.
So i and i think most others are over it. It's clearly damaged the share price short term and sentiment with the manipulation but i stand by everything i say about the future of this company and i have put my money where my mouth is.
Confirmation of India order will take us to 1.30 per share imop, Dyor,
fair play to MB
shouting buy buy buy since 60p++
"no placing; no possibility of falling below placing price"
truly only a MB would have the gall to claim others are idiots lol
tp 25p still
Thanks for clarifying MB
Muck - By the end of the year we will have lab and lateral flow antibody and antigen tests. They will both be required. I didn't specify which, but ODX will have the ability to adapt their product mix to demand.
Love your posts too MB, but am confused why you feel antibody rather than antigen tests would be used to confirm eradication over the coming years..
Safy - the reason i say 36 months is because even after Covid is under control testing will still go on. Testing will be required to confirm the disease is no longer prevalent.
Take a look at smallpox. It was the last virus to be eradicated in 1977 but was not declared eradicated by WHO until 1980. So 3 years after the last case. Testing will still be required to ensure the disease stays away and we can declare it no longer a pandemic.
It's worth remembering Ncyt wasn't an easy ride. At one stage Ncyt dropped from £2 odd to 0.70p because the Ceo of Ncyt did a dreadful interview on Sky news.
I believe we are doing ok. The sp is holding up well. The cash raise and year end results have put pressure on the stock.
Order confirmation from India will take us into a respectble market cap, with plenty of other opportunities.
Storm in a teacup at the moment. I know John Henry from another board and respect his opinion, however I believe we have stronger foundations than Ncyt.
On confirmation of orders, I believe we will see £1.30 with plenty of room for growth imop.
Design freeze will not allow you to form and publish supply agreements.
PHE approval will.
That’s why an RNS for PHE approval is critical in gaining an order.
Ton1c
I think we will have more media exposure WHEN the approval arrives.
You don't get media coverage on DF. But you def will on PH approval.
That is why i think the SP will raise.
That can drop anytime now.
Safy - "There will be a comprehensive Test and Trace program underway". What, like the 'world class' test and trace program that the Isle of Wight had for a couple of weeks ?
My apologies, its 120k deaths not 250k
MerchantBanker
I like your posts, very informative.
ODX isn't about the next 36 months, its about the next 3 months. Nobody knows whats going to happen in the next 12 months let alone 36. This time last year nobody could have predicted covid....
Anyway back to my point, in the next three months the government will have a plan for this winter, they are already on record as saying there is going to be the biggest flu vaccination programme ever to have been undertaken in this country. There will be a comprehensive Test and Trace program underway.
Scientists are predicting 250,000 deaths worst case scenario leading into next year if Covid isnt handled properly over the winter months, that means by Oct end we should know which way the Gov is going and what preparations they are making.
By Oct everything will be in place.
Absolutely in high demand MB.....and with the latest government projections on the severity of the likely second wave this Winter, testing of both antigens and antibodies will be required on mass. Good job ODX have a significant play in both....seemingly another key detail folk here have quickly forgotten.
Chaps
I've said before PR for sure needs to improve and i believe they are working towards it.
I've seen it before people are looking for things that say their money is going to 5 bag on opening. Then they dont see them. Then someone turns something inconspicuous into a negative and everyone runs with it, panics, the share price drops, the ones that wanted to load up lower buy in and laugh they've pulled off a masterstroke. The thing is some times directors can read something with their inside knowledge thinking its going to go down well and reading it as a non insider it can be interpreted differently. It's clear as day from the presentation what capacity will be, and with the agreements in place its clear they are going to be in high demand.
Merchantbanker - when do you expect the PH approval? I think that will see the sp raise.
10:06 Merchantbanker, Amen to that, nothing to add. Wait, 1 thing to add: Buying and selling based on emotion usually makes capital disappear.
KR
GS