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Sangijuelas1,
Personally I'd take any information a supposed Kroger employee said on a reddit board with a lot more than a pinch of salt but hey fair enough if that's what you base your research on.
Poker chips,
Very naive to think that it's shallow analysis that links Kroger spokes closing to a lesser evolution of the Kroger Ocado ecosystem. The analysts at CFRA have far more data at their disposal than you but hey we are all entitled to our opinions whatever they may be.
Valueplay lost his credibility a long time ago after telling us all to invest in Ocado whilst the share price fell he then went awaybefore returning to tell us abour the profits he had made but now was the time to sell.
I find it very odd that this is the only share he comments on even though he is not invested in it.
Yes indeed Stupmy.
It may not have regained 365 but at least it has found some support at last year’s low of 342:
https://invst.ly/14gskl
(NB regarding this daily chart: Investing.com appear to be showing an incorrect low for yesterday at 3.48 due to a misplaced decimal point! The intra-day low appears to have been 335. However the open and close are what counts in this context ).
Whether support now holds and it builds from here is another matter - but there's been some some good and positive debate about OCDO’s strengths and value on other threads here today.
Reasonable finish for the SP today. Barring something shocking over the weekend, it still looks like we could get a move to the upside. Whether would represent a change in trend is another question, but let's hope it does.
One of the Miami warehouse employees on Reddit said they are going to open a new warehouse in Cocoa Beach and there are job adverts posted for that in the last few days.
Apparently order volumes were higher there
Sangijuelas1
VP is entitled to his "assumptions" and "looks across" ...but to any one who looks at the detail they have a very shallow sense of analysis behind them
This Reddit thread is pretty informative. Worth reading replies to any of the comments.
A number of unhappy customers who were sad to lose the Kroger delivery as very good service.
https://www.reddit.com/r/kroger/comments/1bodhs9/kroger_delivery_closing_spokes/
" Many assumed that Kroger would go far beyond their contracted 20 CFCs and build out 40+ CFCs with associated spokes."
who VP are these "many" ?
can you provide an article of facts to give details of these "many" and their "assumptions" ??
how many CFC s are you aware of that Ocado are in a position to build at any one time?
..in terms of having the tech build for them all ?
Are you for real? CFCs were the only thing of interest to anyone and no one cared much about spokes or was aware of them.
I have also never heard anyone talk about 40 Kroger CFCs.
One reason for opening spokes was to use up spare capacity at the CFCs. Now it could be that they have had demand increasing in areas closer to the CFCs making the spokes somewhat surplus to requirements.
In an article on the closure of the Miami spoke it said they are going to be opening another warehouse (spoke) in Florida shortly.
On Reddit there is a thread with customers and employees discussing the spoke closures. One employee said it was because volumes were not high enough to justify the miles and that Kroger failed to do any marketing.
Also Miami residents are more likely to want small same day delivery rather than larger next day ones. Competition is intense there with Aldi and Public.
As for Instacart they are fine for small baskets but there vans aren't refrigerated so limited for cold or frozen food.
Sangijuelas1,
When Kroger were announcing new CFCs and spoke builds with regularity this boosted the share price. Many assumed that Kroger would go far beyond their contracted 20 CFCs and build out 40+ CFCs with associated spokes. Kroger havent commissioned any extra Ocado CFCs or spokes for around 8 months now. They have now closed 3 spokes. The obvious read across IMO is that the eventual Ocado network that Kroger will build out will be smaller than previously thought with less focus on new markets. Also that they will be slower in commissioning new Ocado hardware. You disagree with this point, fine.
Kroger have talked about their online sales positively in results calls. They though deal with many partners to facilitate their online sales, Instacart, Shipt etc. The read across from the spoke closure to me is that they will be leaning on those other online providers more and not expanding as much as they had thought initially with Ocado after the spoke failure.
Also if you are interested in nuance then I am surprised you don't mention Kroger celebrating significant online sales increases on their most recent investor call.
Valueplay
you have wandered deep into the territory of posting opinion as fact.... not a good look
VP- this has been explained to you already.
Kroger said that closing the spokes has zero impact on the red of the CFC and spoke network.
The spokes are nothing more than sites where lorries with orders packed at the CFCs are transferred to delivery vans.
They do this to increase the reach of the CFCs for example to 200 miles from the CFC.
This didn't work at the sites in Florida and Texas because Kroger has minimal brand recognition there and they messed up the marketing.
If what you say about closing spokes is true then perhaps you can explain why opening spokes has never led to SP rises?
The Kroger spokes closing isn't terrifying but it's been a big driver of the recent share price drop. The obvious read across is that Kroger will be building out a less extensive Ocado ecosystem and will be developing it in a slower timeframe than previously envisaged.
However as always DYOR.
Yeah but you would think they could have pushed harder
The SP falling isnt all to do with Ocado.... shorters here are playing with other external dynamics other than the "terrifying" news that 3 spokes are closing :-)
Given the hit that markets have been taking this week it's surprising that shorts haven't been more aggressive?
I am all for hearing contrarian views ...but prefer to hear more balance views in order to gain understanding
VP isnt exactly independent ..he posts points to meet his agenda ..and repeats them numerous times if necessary to enforce that agenda ...if that agenda is currently a short position ( probably expected)
He isnt exactly going to give anyone any help against that view of having a short position in place
IMO
He's also been right to take the negative view as the SP has halved recently. He's also supported by the institutions that are still shorting (even increasing their exposure) the stock. So, I think it would be daft to ignore his views. He is demonstrably right to suggest that the SP would fall. I hope he's wrong about further falls mind!! There's a bottom and top to everything.
VP does have a better understanding than most here and it's good to get a contrarian view to help challenge.overly optimistic assumptions.
I can learn more about the company. As I am a growth investor this for me is one of the few investable UK companies.
I do think they will end up getting bought out. They are a global leader in warehouse automation and you can't take that away from them.
ValuePlay
one piece of deep knowledge tells me that whilst Ocado have net debt at the last FY end £1,075.1m the Group had £1,550.1m of un-utilised carried-forward tax losses.
so...not such a bad thing to have 50% more in tax loss credits than you have in your net debt !!
"There's a real lack of genuine deep knowledge re this company"
On that point ValuePlay
could you put your " genuine deep knowledge" to my 10:01 post and explain in detail the contract liability and " the consideration received in advance" against your understanding that " Then they recoup these (build) costs in the main via receiving a percentage of the value of the goods that pass through the CFCs."
I am wanting to understand what the £442m of contract liability from "consideration received in advance" ..actually is then ?
I've been highlighting issues at Ocado on this board for near 2 years now. Most ignore any negative talk though, they want to buy in to make a quick buck, swayed by Ocados slick corporate headlines, not researching in depth. There's a real lack of genuine deep knowledge re this company amongst those who invest in it.
The smartest guy in the room, eh?