The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hello hillseeker and Wilson .
Bramley is still invested and very active on an NCYT telegram group ( its a bit like WhatsApp )
Good evening hillseeker I'd no doubt by your strong posting that you were, it was more twitter where we've only really had Kilkenny ted Larry and a few obvious others that have been on the #ncyt supporting the share. I suppose I'm just fiercely loyal and don't understand as this is such a good share, others with cooler heads may be more sensible.:))
@Wilson
Just in case you're wondering (your post at 12:35 ref LTH "...they've nearly all done one"), I'm still here, and I'm sure Bramley, and others too, are lurking in the background.
Just waiting quietly for the re-rate, a lot of patience needed. The SP currently, indeed, does not compute, but that's because we know far more about what is going on than your average investor (see my Zulu Principle post from last year).
We eat and breath this share, it will be a while before Jo Bloggs catches up with what's been going on. There is so much coming down the line to drive this up. Just sitting on your hands for weeks on end can be the hardest thing. I know you are convalescing, Wilson, but for those that can get away form the screen please do so "a watched kettle never boils" - and when this kettle boils it's a real pressure cooker that's going to blow.
Multi-billion company in the making, first stop SP £15 coming soon (IMO), DYOR, GLA
Picathartes Tks for your reply we are probably all in agreement stick the shorters in an extremely warm oven regards Wilson.
Hi Wilson,
hope all is well with you. Yes you could well be right there, I must admit I know very little about shorting, certainly something I have never done. I'm fairly basic in my short time as an active investor, find interesting companies with good tech and try and buy when fairly cheap with a view to a long term hold. Although I have occasionally traded I'm more a LTH
Picarthes good evening I think the general opinion is long term Avacta will do well and I asked the question Steve asked last week.
Surely it would have been much better to short Avacta with 3 mil revenues(you've seen the power of shorting here) and then buy a good position in them going forward.
Has the usa ii afforded Avacta protection?
For clarity I do not hold but think they will be succesful.
Also why does it have to recover to its previous highs? My average is £4, wouldn't a 50% rise to £6 be a good investment? Or do you make 200% on all yours?
Harchris another 5000 shares in a stock that shows no sign of recovering to it's previous highs.... Those bottomless pockets of yours are great ah....
************
I think you've got the wrong person Joker. I bought back in fairly recently and this is only my second top up? 12000 shares in total now.
Now that would be interesting Steve
Of course it would be highly ironic, quite unexpected, but a somewhat mouthwatering prospect IF it turned out that
the partner NCYT was working with to develop their LFT Antigen turn out to be AVACTA.
AVACTA have a great test? NCYT have the volume manufacturing capability and the NHS/worldwide sales/ distribution outlets.
Just saying !!!!
Hi Steve, yes thats a fair point BUT I was only refering to LFT and not PCR revenue or past performance which clearly NCYT had MAJOR first mover advantage back at the start of the Pandemic and as we all know did remarkably well. I wish I had got into NCYT back in January last year
Hey, Picathartes. Some interesting points, but I will pick you up on one.
Re: missing the boat. NO, NCYT have not missed the boat. They have made hundreds of millions in revenue and currently have well over £100m in the bank. AVACTA have made nothing , and when they eventually bring out their test and start to generate revenue NCYT will have a similar product and surely share the market with them.
Why has NCYT, one of the most successful COVID stocks, become the most undervalued?
Is it just market manipulation and shorters targeting a high profile volatile stock?
Why aren't they shorting ODX or AVACTA. How is it, on the one hand, some have concerns about revenue in perpetuity post COVID, and so down grade NCYT, BUT some COVID stocks that haven't made a penny are holding up so well.
Is it part of some entities grand plan to acquire the company?
"I really can't understand why it has taken so long for AVACTA to get their LFT COVID test out." - This the time spent developing the test from scratch
"Maybe it is a great test? But I suspect NCYT will get an equivalent test out that works equally as well in double quick time." - Maybe NCYT will get one out that is as good, BUT we will have to see
"Surely AVACTA have missed the boat. They have taken far too long to capitalise on the opportunity, and have plenty of competition. I really don't get why they are so highly valued.(compared to NCYT)" - This is a very odd thought process! Surely if you think Avacta have "missed the boat" then clearly NCYT have as well? The recent news that Innova are ramping up production capacity for their LFT and the UK governments interest along with many others would say Avacta have not missed the boat, far from it.
As for being overvalued please go and do your research on valuation of Biotech's, many have been bought for Billions despite being loss making - BIG CLUE for you, it's all about Intellectual Property.
Avacta have proven the use BIG time for Affimer's as diagnostics (Avactas Diagnostics division will shortly be profitable) in the Lateral Flow Test, the other important point is the time taken to develop the LFT is now done, it's now very quick to drop in any new Affimer's for any new Virus or other target.
One final point, research the use of Antibodies then have a think what next generation Antibody Mimetics like Avacta's Affimers are potentially worth. It would seem MANY people didn't do the research and grossly underestimated Avacta
Good luck to you
Alansugar, " the shorters do not want to leave", Without any warning any day now around 7.00am,they will not be given the option.GLA.
I really can't understand why it has taken so long for AVACTA to get their LFT COVID test out.
Maybe it is a great test? But I suspect NCYT will get an equivalent test out that works equally as well in double quick time.
Surely AVACTA have missed the boat. They have taken far too long to capitalise on the opportunity, and have plenty of competition. I really don't get why they are so highly valued.(compared to NCYT)
No need to convince me Steve, I bought another 5000 shares today to add to my already substantial holding. The point I was trying to make is it's those simple questions that the market wants answered, it doesn't like guesswork. Not only that but Graham's language doesn't scream 'covid is here to stay!', he's more the 'sales should continue into the latter part of the year' type of guy.
The main outlier is avacta in terms of steep valuation and if you listen to Alastair Smith the CEO he is always talking about the billions the company will make with their affirmer technology and other proprietary platforms. That right now is the difference in my opinion.
"Follow the money. That is what I have done."
Down the drain so far with any medium term ncyt holding.
Bit depressing this holding, although over all been a decent share to be in and out off, not sure what will trigger a rise soon, the shorts dont want to leave soon it would appear.
Hey HarChris, Yes very good point.
OK do we think there will be NO COVID testing in 2022 ? I very much doubt it.
What if NCYT revenue in 2022 dropped of a cliff to say, £40m
Well actually using my same calculations implies an SP very much as is now, £3.90
BUT do you think anyone will be let into a hospital for treatment in 2022 without a PCR test?
AND of course NCYT will be even MORE cash rich then than now and will be able to fulfil their ambition in other diagnostic areas. In 2022, If you got circa £200m in the bank and are a leading ambitious diagnostics company, I think the world is your oyster, especially in what is a GROWTH market.
BUT that is just NCYT.
What I can't get my head around is when you compare the fabulous performance of NCYT with similar companies who seem to have achieved very little.
I did the same Price/ratio calculations that I showed you all for NCYT, for ODX and AVACTA.
Try yourself, it is laughable. The price/sales ratio for AVACTA based on 2020 revenue is astronomical. It is embarrassing, their SP is so high, and totally out of kilter with their performance.
Their sp should be around 10p based on 2020 revenues.
What are they going to do in 2021 or 2022.?
Follow the money. That is what I have done.
Completely agree VanV, I'm feeling the same way as you. We saw how quickly the share price can recover just a few weeks ago, from 360p to 580p in a manner of days, but the key things holding back the share price hadn't been resolved hence not only could it not be sustained, it took a raging tumble once again!
It's a coming!
SteveV where your analysis falls down in a second is when I ask the simple question 'what about 2022?'.
We have absolutely no idea what the demand for testing will be from 2022 onwards, we don't know how much cash we'll have and we don't know what we'll use that cash for. All those unknowns cause uncertainty and uncertainty either plays in your favour (think last year when the share price was surging) or it goes against you (now.)
This is once again one of my biggest holdings because I am confident that fairly soon most of those questions will be answered and more importantly, I am confident that in a year's time when all the uncertainty will have evaporated the company will be doing exceptionally well. But until then besides the odd trader-led spike there isn't going to be much happening to the share price that's positive.
VanV - perhaps.
The topic is doesnt compute. I hope you get my point about conviction.
"exciting long term plans for long term growth" sounds credible to me, great! Like "easy & amicable resolution of legal dispute" did last month. I am counted in but this SP will drag down to unnecessarily low levels through shorting and the absence of evidence available to sway neutrals away from counting in their harshest interpretations first. If plans exist, what is the benefit in delay in releasing them? It faffing about that'll undermine their homework when they get round to handing it in - hence why this does compute unfortunately IMO.
.... Price /sales ratio Ctd.
OK so my previous post was 2020. What about 2021?
So in the infamous update we heard , no more DHSC orders this year.
Q1 revenue was £72.6m. 50% was DHSC. so £36.3m for international sales in Q1.
So we might expect full year revenue to be £72.6 + £36.3 +£36.3 + £36.3 = £181.5M
Plug that into the Price to sales ratio calculation(AND assuming a sector average of 7)
gives us an SP for the full year 2021 of £17.89 !!!!
That doesn't include any revenue for the new NHS framework, any increase in international sales(which NCYT informed us were growing), OR, any on the new products. GM said the new LFT antigen could generate significant revenue.
When is the market going to value this share properly ???
Agreed the slide is slower this time... but every day down a little more!
Any positive from Co and the smell of burning toast, would be such a delight :)
Lets hope my laymans view is wrong (fingers crossed) but yes sat on a few quid, waiting!
I have also just topped up at 390p.
The sp doesn't compute to me either.
I recently did a few rough calculations based on price /sales ratios.
That is a pretty crude tool but quite useful when comparing similar businesses within market sector.
The Average ratio for Healthcare products sector is approx 7. (any lower is better and higher is worse)
Price/sales ratio = market cap/revenue.
With a sp of £3.90 The ratio for NCYT is a mere 1 based on 2020 revenues of £277m
IF it were 7 (in line with the average for NCYT sector), that equates to a SP of £27.30 !!!!
OK so we are waiting for fully audited accounts end of June to see if revenue is below that which was stated.
Say we loose £77m.(highly unlikely in my view). But let's say revenue of only £200m
With a ratio of 7 that equates to an sp of £19.70 !!