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What did an analyst price Immunomedics only less than 6 months earlier before the TO was announced?
Crl123, I'm afraid you are not quite right. The acquirer has to match the highest price that they themselves have paid in the previous 12 months, rather than the highest price that any single trade managed to achieve in that time. But, in my personal opinion, there isn't enough money in the world for every AIM company that punters think are going to be taken over to actually be taken over, especially at the wildly over-optimistic premiums they predict. Take-overs are actually pretty rare. And often disappoint when they do happen. I don't personally think GM is seeking to sell out yet. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to build a substantial business. He's seized it with both hands, and made a hell of a job of it so far. I think he'll want to run with it a while yet.
It is also worth saying that managing this scale up is a colossal task. GM has many plates to keep spinning. The share price is a minor metric, and as he does not need to do a capital raise, of very little day to day importance. PIs are losing perspective in their incessant focus on that single metric.
Deas. I also agree with almost everything you are saying and what you say about credibility. Apart from the last bit!!
1) You can’t nemericalise or generalise re. putting things right. A loony “saying “ which is wrong .
2) In the real world outside business a “ sorry” is often enough.
He who hesitates is lost. Look before you leap. Out of sight out of mind. Etc etc
Sorry. What you say in your post I agree with but that saying is loopyville and just wrong ‘cos you can’t arithmetise apology or making up for error. World isn’t like that.
But they do need to make up for a bunch of appalling negligences yes.
Can't argue with much that you say, we are both on the same side here and want share price improvement - lets see how event's unfold. There is a lot going on behind the scenes for sure.
I still think a TO approach is highly likely but we will see. In the meantime, GM needs to turn this around and restore faith in investor confidence.
I also agree that genomic surveillance could also become a game changer for this business.
Also, a decent stateside order could also make a material difference to our fortunes. Replacing the DHSC with numerous smaller World Wide orders would also position us better.
As i see it we currently sit in oversold territory, some positive statements from GM at this time would work wonders. I believe that Shareholders at least deserve that much.
Lets see how this week unfolds and go from there
B2SL, I agree with the majority of what you say; although, the SP is where it was 12 months ago. As a successful CEO / leader you should learn from your mistakes.
So far GM doesn’t seem to be learning from them, PR, IR, RNS wording etc are what has degraded shareholder value.
I have no doubt he’s an excellent scientist, however you must admit some trust / credibility has been eroded. They say for one bad act that loses trust / credibility you need 4 good acts to gain it back. Let’s hope they are all in the pipeline.
Well, you kind of make my point to new shareholders.
1 It doesn't state in those policies that a company has to be operational on certain exchanges / bourses, -
I don't see AIM / EURONEXT GROWTH not applicable.
2 'he does have a duty to us share holders' - and he has recognised that, in that he says he wants to generate shareholder value.
You could argue he's done that in spades since January 2020, - I'm placing a tick in that box, - he's just not done it for new shareholders since January 2021.
OK so this is AIM, stuff goes up and down crazy sometimes, but the sp has to rise for shareholder value to improve.
He needs time to get to his Mid-Cap goal, and in 16 months he has launched many products, with breath-taking R & D and speed to market, and clearing debt.
Another example is the recently discussed genomic surveillance assay, or Variplex.
With the CE-IVD approved launch of this assay, the starting gun has been fired in the race to get SNPsig technology 'adopted' by commerce, industry and academia.
Recent posts have identified competing technologies from Thermo-Fisher, Perkin Elmer and Roche, (none of which have FDA, WHO or CE-IVD approval I believe).
Each will be trying to establish the primacy of their technology, much in the same way as Betamax, VHS and Phillips System 2000 fought to establish primacy for their video-tape products.
He's putting in maximum effort towards his mid-cap goal certainly.
But it's the unconventional 'no-hype here' way he does it that ticks off so many.
The aim of my post was to point out that NCYT share ownership comes with little sales / financial information available (bar what we can dig out and get Shaun to collate), and no media hype.
Videos are a luxury, - one of the last being a thank you to the staff for all the hard work they put in these last 16 months.
If you have bought NCYT shares, this is what you have bought into.
I think you have posted because what I have said dissuades certain types of new investors from investing.
I realise £12 is a long way from here Porky, but we need new investors to hear these things, else they are just going to become dissatisfied quickly and move on, some losing their shirt in the process.
If you have bought, you need to be prepared to hold.
Indeed, we have had a royal stuffing of late, but GM's way is to let the numbers do the talking, and with DHSC disagreement revealed, we will now see many product launches and the headway they make into their individual markets.
If GM plans for genomic surveillance come to fruition, we have a whole new income stream and long term market laid out that is ours to capture and profit from.
Note how long term that last line sounds, - another clue for new investors, and short termists.
Highest price for last 12 months is over £12.
I’m not a takeover expert but I have been told that the shares( most of them) cannot be below highest price .
If that is wrong I am happy.
But I have been in this scenario before with takeover talk. Didn’t happen. Not once.
I am happy to be shot down with facts if wrong but each time I was told this.
I have been on many bb’s which live on hopes. Correctly so.
I would only rely on Company legislative facts though . Disappointed too many times.
Hope is good. Let’s back it up .
This company needs proper factual forwardlooking contractual info rns’d out. Or news re. DHSC. Until then we are Pinnochio.
What would be a 'ludicrously high price' ?
You'd not expect a potential suitor to be pay anything less than x5 earnings, which happens to be North of £15 in the case of NCYT, that's not a high price.
Nice feeling but takeover is dreamsville.
70% of the shares would have to be at a ludicrously high price . Sorry. Not gonnahappen. Happy if it did.
Factual forward prospects are needed.
And sadly Ncyt are just staying stumm as usual.
Today was profit making and I think I know where it will go tomorrow.
In spite of a certain sourness on my part (apologies) I am still very much a hold as it is grossly oversold.
IMO much patience and time needed and any bars of expectation dropped.Only leads to disappointment.
Mm’s will play again tomorrow ( IMO) and we must just wait.
There has been lots of consolidation in the diagnostics sector to date.
I take on board your view point but equally i don't class a small AIM/Bourse listed business as one that would fall under the rules of protection from a foreign takeover. Come off it, we are talking Novacyt here, a small diagnostics business NOT British Nuclear fuels.
And anyhow, if we are no longer supplying DHSC and the French are not buying from us, what do they care? I don't think they even know who we are? If the French government want us then maybe they should bid?
Now i'm not suggesting any impropriety on GMs behalf, he is honest as a day is long and an exceptional scientist. However, the RNS issued not only mentioned the dispute (maybe a Regulatory requirement to disclose before completion of arbitration) but was it really necessary to add the visibility comment on top? as if things were not bad enough.
Also, the SP was materially marked down after results factoring in that the phase 2 was not a given so its not like at £ 500m mcap, based on what the business was delivering at the time, was somehow over valued when you consider what other similar concerns are valued at or even trying to list at. House brokers were suggesting fair value at £ 14.33 share price.
You mention that GM doesn't do Hype and I totally get that, he is not like the CEO of other concerns issuing an RNS the moment they sign up someone to sell their potential products, i totally get that HOWEVER he does have a duty to us share holders, he should be acting in our best interests.
I don't think SH are asking much for a bit more positivity in statements from Novacyt, some quality PR, Other diagnostics businesses can do it why cant Novacyt?
We have had a royal stuffing of late, its the least he can do frankly as far as i'm concerned
There seems to be a number of posters who think that buying a British company is as easy now as it was before the pandemic.
When such posters want their money back after 'GM hasn't put his ALL into protecting the share price',
the conversation quickly turns to a Takeover.
I've recently mentioned these links, - they detail that companies deemed valuable to a nations ability to fight Covid (and other dangers), are known to the British (and French) governments.
Both govnts introduced protection policies, and links are available in the spreadsheet on page 56 under 'Protection from foreign takeovers'.
Effectively British AND / OR French Governments could veto a Takeover.
Think what that means to a predator. - good possibility of having their offer 'Null and Voided' by one or both governments
To those posters who regularly suggest a T/O is the answer, please be aware of these links, they could even be the reason NCYT still exists.
That might sound bad to some I know.
What follows is aimed at new shareholders.
If you are a new NCYT shareholder, GM operates in quiet mode.
The least said about sales and contracts the better for GM, hiding / not publishing info useful to predators whilst he Perseus shareholder value, taking advantage of the protections the above policies afford to allow growth to mid-cap status.
Hype; - he definitely doesn't like hype, - GM doesn't do hype.
So if you are a new NCYT shareholder, and are used to mouthy CEO's shouting their wonderful companies progress, (it's what CEO's don't say that counts most), this will be a change for you.
If having a lot less information than you are used to is not your style - sell.
Just don't moan a Takeover is necessary because GM hasn't blah blah.
Sorry, but you didn't do enough research.
It was you who pushed the buy button, and the buck stops right there.
Crabtree you are a dangerous ramper
That's a fact
Thanks for the insight Wilson!
Levincool buyer would have to declare at 30% and make their offer if you and I don't like we vote against or don't sell, directors can recommend an offer but ultimately for the time being here pi's would have the casting vote. Imho
Noobie question here. Why does the board need to announce takeover? If 1 entity keeps buying and buying can they not be taken over in theory? If the board announces - only the directors have direct power to sell the shares.
LOL i never said that I said the price rise that day looked like it was signed. please state facts
I'm sure everyone is aware but crabtree is a blatent liar and ramper
He posted that he had inside info and that 2nd phase was signed
Crabtree, not seen any TR1s yet and the Sp will start it’s recovery without an RNS. It’s plainly obvious the stock was oversold looking at the company as it stands right now. One good acquisition will take us back to previous highs and that will happen! They said so in a previous release ref bolt ons!!!
Wow big jump there
No idea if takeover or not is likely, I dont follow this share and I bought exactly 50 shares at 402 because it was such a significant drop no other reason. That said, for people discussing takeover, IF it happens the buyer would likely acquire up to the 30% limit on the open market at whatever price they can achieve, but for the actual takeover they would have to offer atleast £12.25 per share, this being the highest traded price in the preceding 12 months.
Agree but not long to find out as anyone wanting it cheap will need to come forward soon otherwise this will move back up
The stock was over sold and will recover to a level soon that fits the business model as it is now.
The DHSC RNS is full of mays and not will be’s. It’s a blip as it’s only part of the business.
I'm not saying it isn;t possible, personally I expect it to happen as it's just too good value and too good a reputation in the industry. What i am saying is because we move up 3% on any given day doesn't mean we've had a takeover approach! If it goes up 50% then sure, maybe.
Being over 70% down is exactly the reason why a T.O. is a possibility. But my hope is more for £12.00 (ish).
They would have to announce any approach, let's just stick to facts.
It's like ground hog day here. Sure I've said that before lmao.