We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Podister, thanks for your message . I’ll back you with my limited holding. Ive lost between 25-30k . It’s big for me. Ive been holding for 18 months now and the jan trading update will be the last straw for me .
I live in Texas and I can confirm that any covid test was hard to get. My parents and brother came to visit over Christmas and we had to go through hell 2 weeks back to get covid tested . Every place hadd run out
I am on a 70% paper loss, circa £35,000, and that is a large sum for me. At the same time, I feel that this is a rock-solid company with strong prospects. Circa 100m in the bank, new CEO, constantly growing headcount. The DHSC dispute has put a dampener on things unfortunately. A positive or negative conclusion to DHSC will give the market certainty about the cash position. After that, on consistent revenue growth, I think we can see the P/E multiply.
If it hurts so much, try and make your assessment of the negatives and positives of this company. Factor in all the negatives, and see what the companies revenue and cash balance look like. If you are uncomfortable at this point, perhaps you should consider selling part of your holding.
ChrisToffer,
To me this is a risky piece of news. While it shows negligible impact for the full year 21 revenues, which we know were conservative, it does not bode well for 22 revenues. There is a risk that these products will not get CTDA accreditation and therefore stand a chance to be banned from the UK market. I hope the company is working to release some non-covid news.
Hey guys, can anyone point me to a link where I can watch the AGM? With DA in the picture, I finally bought in at £2.51 and reduced my average from £7.15 to £5.
I think David would want all the dirty laundry out before GM leave, so he can get a clean slate to work from.
Harchris , I would like to challenge to notion of getting to £5 odd in the next 6-12 months. For the pure reason , there are going to be 2 half-yearly revenues (year end 2021 and 1/2 year 2022). And I suspect we are well placed to beat the previous half’s revenue on both occassion.
If this happens twice in a row, we will rerate to industry standard P/E Ratio of 10-15 which will put us in around £10. This is assuming we do not get a DHSC resolution. The underlying business needs to be seen to be robust and growing. The DHSC is an added bonus .
On the basis of the above , which I believe we both have the same reasons , how do you end up with such a conservative number - all in all I do believe we need to more conservative with the state of affairs , but just curious why you don’t use a P/E ratio of 10-15 that is the industry average , and using instead 5-7 which Numis have quoted .
I had a skim through of the results now but couldn’t see anything to do with non-covid revenues. Did anyone else get a glimpse of what they are planning to do with the 300 odd staff they now have with relaxations happening across the world ? For me that is the more concerning part . There were talk of covid plus and respiratory diseases strategy but it’s about time they move into the plan. They need to beat the 100 mil H1 2021 results in H1 2022 to create sustainable SP growth and P/E rerates . I don’t think they will hit it without diversifying.
Hi Steve, it is very likely to expand better than the stated 5% PA. The way i see it is 2020 was an exceptional year for NCYT, 2021 is a good year, but relaxations are set to continue, so 2020 - 2023 might just be comfortable years. While they have established themselves as market leaders on the covid space, they are still trying to work their way through on other fronts. The declining covid revenues might take a few years to be balanced by the non-covid revenues. Its hard to estimate it so the company has been conservative and stated 5% CAGR.
Despite 5% CAGR, we are trading at a P/E ratio somewhere in the 4-5. If we can hit the revenue targets of 100m for 2021 and whatever the concensus is for 1st half of 2022, we can see the P/E rating multiply to industry norms of 10-15, because we are telling the market that a sustainable revenue point has been reached. So my target is circa GBP10-12/share by the 2nd half results next year. This is my basis, and happy to be challenged. Been reading the books recommended by Hillseeker and Soder :)
Wilson, thanks for your response. I agree with your conclusion.
Wilson and steve , did they not state 5% CAGR over the next 5 years during the investor meet ? What is the basis for your revenue projection ? I have been estimating 125mil revenues in 5 years .
Porky et al who have large positions here, can you force the board's hand to respond to a representative from this board to keep us abreast of any questions we might have, adjudicated by this representative? Is this possible/legal?
Soder, more than anything . I am inspired by the way you make these financial assessments. Since you are in the trade , is there a book or something you would recommend for a beginner ? Almost all my knowledge of these calculations come from reading your posts.
Porky, well done. Thought id chip in.
Also, I just relocated to the USA. I did not have to take a PCR test to travel. Antigen test is sufficient to get a fit-to-fly cert. I got mine from Collinson.
Big yellow pig, I respect your views for what it matters. As Harchris said there are genuine optimistic investors around who you once called out incessant rampers. The likes of Tay cant be accused of ramping. The vast majority of the what he called out were extrapolated from information that was at hand. As an investor, we all do that. They just voice what they feel out of optimism. I had dreams of a new house too with the way the SP moved between September - October 2020 and it ran with my imaginations.
In any case, the more i followed you , i found your justifications valid but a bit harsh on criticism (on twitter). I hope you continue to post your opinions on the board. Its nice to know the most pessimistic poster (no disrespect meant), to call a bottom. Hopefully it moves up from here.
Guys we really ought to respect everyone's point of views. The SP is not going to be moved whether one has negative or positive views. The guy is only sharing his take on things. There is beauty in diversity.
I have my own views which I sometimes feel like i should share but am sometimes conscious that I am not adding value when you are named a de-ramper. A more deeper discussion will be fostered if you speak around the subject as to why they might have such a low SP estimate. My take is that they have not updated their metrics.
Why does Richard say £129m is in dispute. I thought it was roughly 30 + 45 = 75m.
Am i missing something?
Guys I don't want to burst people's bubbles.
I refer to October 2020 RNS where Graham "Acquired" £500k shares. At that point I questioned whether he bought it or whether it was given to him. Everyone on the Forum told me that he had bought it and didn't want to see the other way. In the full year reports, it was announced that it was given to him.
The same wording has appeared again. I do not think this is a personal buy. It is being awarded to him, hence the word "acquired".
what drives the SP. Is it the volume or the difference between the buy to sell? Looking by your summary Ad4you, we should be flying. Naturally, there is a dampener from Euronext but these numbers are upbeat (at least for this morning!)
It’s a good RNS period. I don’t think however we should get ahead of ourselves. They Already own 30% of the travel market. This new RNS suggests they will retain it. It’s not additional revenue as far as I see.
Retaining market share is as important and should help build a support to the SP.
Keen to hear the flip side of my arguement .