Petro Matad Share Chat (MATD)

Jndavid, not writing it off mate. We need to drill WH-1. We can't come close until we do some actual drilling. A technical success is not negative news if you are a long term holder. We'll get there I just highly doubt we will on the first drills in each Block.

Mikey30. I certainly would not write off Wild Horse-1. WH-1 is a 4 way dip, its a dome. These are the majority and the most prolific of oil finds in the world. SL-1 was supposed to be self generating charge, but we now know the seal was bust. Seal failure on a 4 way dip is down to the top only, its all about a migration path. WH-1 is like a normal 4 way dip in that it has stacked targets........3 of them.

The big difference, SL-1 had nothing, no positive signs pre-drill really.

WH-1 has bright amplitude anomalies. These can be indications of hydrocarbons. So in my view WH-1 will have gas, or oil or oil and gas. I am much more hopeful on WH-1 than SL-1.

The bright amplitude anomalies can be seen the photo in the link below :

http://oi67.tinypic.com/s5h549.jpg

Fingers crossed its a gas cap on a huge load of oil :) :)
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Pop over to the OMI site and see if you can recognise any posters and for extra points spot any similarities to MATD... Got to admit got a brass neck...Hmmmm.....

Procelense,great summary,information gained from SL will further the search,I'm sure we will hear a lot more of the hot shale and the development within these basins of oil and gas,Mickey30, Wild Horse,can't be written off,especially from the results of SL,will be extremely unlucky if the large 2d image is water,when the organic materials/deposits, iindicate the basins have a working petroleum system,I think well worth the risk,I know the winter is long,but I've decided nothing better out there,WH is huge potential.

Hit*

Snow leopard was drilled first for logistical reasons and because WH permits were still being processed. SL permits only required renewing so quicker to resolve. I didn't expect to hut oil but I did expect a better technical success. Let's hope we hear some better news over the winter period following further interpretation of the results. Odds are we also won't hit at WH-1. Very rare to strike oil on a wildcat drill. I do hope however the technical success results are better than received at SL-1. I don't see 2018 being Matd's year now unfortunately but I do believe we will be in a much better postion. Drilled wells in Blocks IV and V, post mortem analysis, 3D seismic on upcoming drill and appraisal wells. 2019 will be interesting that's for sure. We just need to wait even longer. Annoying I know.

Excellent analysis Proselenes.Thanks for your input.

Part 1

If you put your hindsight goggles on and go backwards now based on what is now known :

The plan was to drill Wild Horse-1 first, then Falcon-1 (as of early 2018 presentations).

Wild Horse-1 (Block IV) has only just(during SL-1 drilling it seems) received its final permits (chemical use) and so could not have been drilled until now anyway.

Falcon-1 (Block V) the 2nd planned well earlier this year was downgraded based on new 3D and removed.

Snow Leopard-1 (Block V) was the only drill ready prospect and which was the first to get all permits in place. MATD are also short of the required spend level of the license of Block V. It was rushed in as the replacement for Falcon-1

I would imagine Mike and his team were between a rock and a hard place here. Fox-1 the new exciting prospect from the new 3D is not drill ready and not permitted, permitting ongoing. Wild Horse-1 which was always your first drill, is not ready as final permits (chemical use etc..) are not in place. Falcon-1 which was your 2nd drill in the schedule is suddenly not worth drilling (too small) compared for Fox-1 so cannot be moved to be 1st.

You either cancel your 2018 drilling schedule (going down like a lead balloon)to allow Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 back to back in 2019 or you put Snow Leopard-1 into play and drill that while you try to get the final permits for Wild Horse-1 to allow a seamless move from SL-1 to WH-1 in 2018 and go to the local temple to pray you get the Wild Horse-1 final permits before SL-1 finishes drilling.

If I go back now - with knowledge today - you really can see why the 2nd fund raise happened and why it was at 10p (compared to the earlier one at 6.5p - thats all down to Fox-1).

Looking at the prospects - Wild Horse-1 has simple faulting, its a 4 way dip (dome) and has soft amplitude anomalies. Pretty good target. Always was the 1st one they wanted to drill.

Snow Leopard-1 has complex faulting and therefore high sealing risk. In all the presentations after removing Falcon-1 there is nothing much exciting said about SL-1. Look yourselves....its as if someone writes the slide saying, yeah, we got this one too.

Fox-1 - extremely exciting, they spend 4 pages of their latest presentation detailing Fox-1. 3 way dip, normal faulting, bright spot on 3D, live oil shows in coring etc.. etc.. etc...

............................I feel the only reason they drilled SL-1 was to actually put the 2018 drilling into play and to bide time to get the WH-1 permits complete so they could drill WH-1, whilst also ensuring the spend on Block V was up to the level needed so as not to have any issues with Fox-1 which is also in Block V. And yes, in hindsight now I would say SL-1 was a strati-graphic test well in effect, one which also raised the spend level on Block V to the level required for compliance with the license. It had a (very limited) chance to strike oil and didn't and no surprise there.

Had I known prior that WH-1 was still waiting for final permits I might have put two and two together prior to events, but I didnt, and anyway, its far easier in hindsight, everyone is an expert after the event, as always :)

I dont blame Mike and his team for doing it this way if that is what happened, it makes sense in hindsight, just you started drilling with perhaps what was "off record internally" your worst prospect.

So in summary, my view, SL-1 was just a license spend compliance, waiting for WH-1 final permits, mobilize the rig and get in in the area ready for WH-1, fill in for the downgraded Falcon-1, in effect strati-graphic test well. And in view of that - I really cannot see them not spudding Wild Horse-1 asap, its a must and IMO, it WILL happen very soon.

All IMO, just my thoughts.

How many bags to be made here if wild horse hits the 480 million barrels. Hmm 12p 18p 24p 30p 36p 42p or 48p. Anything up to 7 bags on a strike. The biggest drill on aim this year. Maybe the biggest drill on aim ever .... Really is simple invest 6k and get back up to 48k if it comes in. Larger stake Invest 60k and get back up to 480k. Loving those odds Now who has the ball's. ..... Downside is very little from this price,as it will rise up to spud and during spud because of the sheer size! Fox with its 200 million barrels and red deer, gazelle and antelope to come next year. Exciting times for all involved. Good luck all even the barking dogs what are here for same reason as I am :)

Woof Woof..Barking Dogs again Manro...I'm sure the dogs will be devastated to hear that they've been filtered by such a knowledgeable & illustrious poster as your good self.

No, jndavid490. To listen constant barks of the dogs its much worse than reading the rubbish.
To one criminal was proposed replacing the death penalty on constant listening the disc with the dog barking and he was agreed with the great joy. But yet just two days later he began to bang the door of his cell demanding immediate death penalty execution. See, the barking of dogs is even worse, buddy. This is why I have filtered all of them today.

Can't be helped if the oil isn't there,but I'm sure the well wasn't a waste of time,plenty learnt from it.anything said in favour of PM is a ramp,and reading the deramp brigade, OOh!,and plenty of them,they want to put investors right,so now I know they will not drill this year,funny the RNS says they will,and what a drill it could be,risk,of course,but potential, massive.there is nothing worse than reading the rubbish.

Thats about my position too. Do wonder if they're scared off drilling too quckly by their record there. Haven't they had around 11 dusters now on the trot? Must be pretty demoralising for them and lead to negative thinking with the board I'd imagine.
Holders will likely have to drag them kicking and screaming into drilling any more if WH is spudded and dusts too. "Thats our wages we're wasting on these drills" they'll be thinking. "Better to be a lifestyle co, drill/dust once a year and put up with investor complaints"
Can't say I'd disagree with them either. Boy do they need a successful drill under their belt somewhere. Anywhere will do. Perhaps they can farm into Brockham. No scrub that UK wealders don't need the jinxing.
ATB Til Monday anyway.

*BG...

Im not trying to deramp or anything but out of all the drills that I have followed with other O&G companies this has to be the only one that doesn't provide regular RNS updates. Strange that. either MB is a hardworker and has no time or hes just lazy. Having looked at the weather I hate to admit it but Fundraiser has a point. Winter is coming..... Ive sold out as I think I can make money elsewhere short term but will deffo be back.

I guess we will have to wait and see if they can still make the drill in 2018 it does look unlikely to be fair. What I don't understand are the CoS though. I always thought that SL was 20% and WH 30% but looking at the Edison note it's more like 10% but surely no sain person would invest to that probability and it would be difficult to raise cash from institution or get the farm in with BH in the first place with these chances ?

Will let you know Hallowed.

No, have never called them, but please do and let us know if you get anywhere, thanks.

Yet somehow the company managed to shake out £15M from investors/pis/ institution's at 10p. Clearly the board aren't that silly. Better to be at 6p with £15M extra than 6p without

The company have stated in the last RNS that the wild horse drill is ready to go... Although there was disappointment with the SL drill I'm now starting to add to in anticipation of the wild horse drill commencing this year.... Gla 7s

Well not the result we wanted for SL but was always a bonus. Temporary set back....yes. WH to me seems on track. Not going by what other websites say. Unless Matd officially say so. Good that some have Emailed the company for clarification. Will wait patiently for further updates. Not going anywhere.

agreed Wildone,

Strongman...I've been with MATD since 2011 chased it up, chased it down. Seen the rampers, de-rampers and the ever present lies from the previous BOD and the present.....I'm not chasing a lower entry price for gods sake.(I'm waiting for an exit point that allows me to retrieve some cash from my 2011 entry point .. I have enough sunk into this share...I'm waiting for competent management to plan and deliver to a well thought out plan.

My view is, give Matad the benefit of the doubt in terms of WH, until they disclose further news.

If they fail to deliver WH this year, then they deserve to be criticized, and take one on the chin.

I also think it’s time for all to stop the finger pointing, and to once again add value to this board in terms of their knowledge and contributions. Equally if the rampers reappear, they need telling perhaps their time is better spent elsewhere.

Onwards.

Strongman, The price may go low, but if Matad can only achieve 1 drill per year, it may never be "cheap." The way I see it, is the company is probably in the penalty box with institutions in the City, after hoodwinking them in the 10p raise. Meaning, they may NEED a discovery to raise anymore capital. Discoveries are hard to come by if you can't DRILL! So far, Matad has shown itself as a pure lifestyle company, with no substance and no ability to execute.