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Goldmine
I will ask Dashka from MT where all the rigs are currently in Mongolia and what utilization looks like over the coming months.
I am in UB the end of May so will be easier to get clarity on border logistics and rig procurement.
Bowley: On the subject of scheduling and future works, I took the opportunity to write to PetroMatad over the weekend and asked if they had considered looking at Russian or Ukrainian land rigs.
A recent Rystad Energy white paper titled “ONSHORE DRILLING – WHERE IS DEMAND HEADED” shows much lower rig utilization rates for Europe and Russia compared to Asia with the onset of the conflict in Ukraine.
For 2022 European and Russian land rig utilization rates will be ~43% comparing to Asian utilization rates of 75%. This gulf gets even wider next year (2023) with utilization rates in Asia remaining at about 73% with Russian and European land rig utilization rates dropping to about 28%.
The aforementioned white paper stated specifically that Ukraine land rig demand would drop by about 90% due to the conflict.
Therefore it would seem if ongoing issues arise with local drilling contractors potentially there could be benefits to Petro Matad to consider looking further afield, if this could be done without causing any problems with sanctions etc.
Possibly even some of the European / Russia rigs would be winterised also and may (possibly) not need to shut down during the winter season - if anybody has any spare time it would be worth suggesting this to PetroMatad as something to investigate (if you had nothing better to do with your time, like me, haha!).
Bowley. I understand the frustration about PM not committing to dates is frustrating for investors, however, the excuse for that is fairly watertight (shutdown of block 19 export facilities due to border closures with China, and closure of chinese border preventing drilling rig operations). PM has zero control over these issues.
I have seen the opposite happen, where the CEO promises the earth and then loses all credibility when self-imposed deadlines aren't met, due to issues outside of the companies control. (See situation with Touchstone Exploration just now with its Coho field - CEO was making statements like 'online in 60 days' after the discovery in 2019, it has now been close to 3 years since discovery and it is still not online, due to waiting on a 3rd party to build them a pipeline. Every 2-3 months the guy comes out with another "Just around the corner" statement - fairly laughable).
For me I'd rather have somebody credible who (in these circumstances only) does not make commitments to timelines, than make promises which is complete baloney. To do otherwise would only invite criticism when the deadline wasn't met.
However, under normal circumstances, I am in 100% agreement that scheduling information should be provided by the company, but I feel under the current circumstances this is not applicable.
// If it's not alright it's not the end.//
unless it's the PIs getting screwed (again)!
I recognize the difficulties of Matads task and executing it successfully in Mongolia.
Can we however have from the board some assurance and probability of delivery for 2022. Establishing a baseline case would give the board credibility and also better visibility for shareholders.
While we wait for heron velociraptor will be in the game, big drill
Ostraliamate: Abso-f*ckinglutely!
Ostraliamate - Entirely agree with your post .
Ostraliamate - Entirely agree with your post .
Forget it master82: Buying @1.9p at the time was not possible - show me your receipt if you claim otherwise.
Who said they haven't?
The previous RNS said the equipment and people were already in Mongolia.
We can drill Velocoraptor whilst we wait for the DQE deal to be finished and or Heron 1 put on production.
We are hearing from locals "don't write this year off there are still a lot of good things in the pipeline" so take this as you will but we are only in early May so let's not get too pessimistic already.
Mike and his team have had a lot of external curveballs, more than you could even reasonably believe. But the fundamentals of MATD are rock solid. With 10M in the bank, the support of the biggest Chinese oil exploiter iand explorer in Mongolia and a government who are continually showing high level support for this frontier project.
None of us like delays, but this is a good project with a good leader and the long term holders appreciate the situation and accept the things we can't control.
Relax, In the end it will be alright. If it's not alright it's not the end.
Cheers
Let's say you are right and there is no limit, but MATD I waiting for china to open up its borders?
If that is the case why MATD CAN'T find any other contractors?
Let's say the workout would cost £200.000. Why MATD doesn't pay £1.000.000 to get any contractors on board?
Either MATD management are mad or they don't have permit to start the job.
In black and white. No local permit yet!
I wish you were right.
Best,
Research and hold.
Sp went down to 1.9 in December 2018. Dont just loom at the chart . I am sure it went down to that level in 2019 aswell.
You must be a new on here..
Oh Hamm, keep trying buddy.
We have all the permits and a government edict that will allow us to bypass and local issues.
We are not trying to change the law , the government supports the position and passed the change in April 22.
China is not stopping the drilling or exploration, we are unable to export our high quality oil until we can free up capacity in the holding tanks, an issue which will be resolved well before the window in 2022.
We dont need a plan b as plan a is still proceeding. Plan A 1 is to drill RAPTOR and prove up multiple million barrels of potential whilst we wait for the border restrictions to lift. Which we hear will be sooner than later.
Heron will be on production this year, velocoraptor is the cream.
I'll bet we see 10p before 2p.
Nice try though ??
People need to just accept the risk that they might or might nit dril this year. This has not changed since the last RNS months ago.
I personally don't think they'll pull it out thier arse this year but I'm also gonna buy some more if we go back down to the 3p area.
Stop being so emotional guys. It's only one share, you should see my crypto portfolio XD
Yes Ojay, I think master82 must be on the magic mushrooms. Matd was only ever 1.9p back in July 2016. Certainly not since master82 bought ( if indeed he did) in 2018.
master82: I am holding since 2010 - in other words including the 1.9p you just mentioned (a sp btw at which you weren't able to purchase - at least not since 2018; you need to go back to 2016 for those type of prices).
Anyway, thx for answering my question.
Facts
MATD has no local permit.
MATD is trying to change Mongolian law!
Even if they had permit, china covid restrictions wouldn't allow drilling/workover.
MATD doesn't have plan B although after years of waiting time one may think they could have other contractors on board!
Now let's talk about risk/reward!
Enjoy the free fall guys.
3p or 2p?
We will all just have to see where this is heading.
I have bought more but maybe it's my luck.
I was here holding even when it went to 1.9p.
I hold huge amount here. Been here since 2018.
I'm just saying I just don't have much confidence in MBs management skills.
The prospect is brilliant we can not argue with that.
Just the way everything has been managed is ridiculous.
They have had since 2019 to plan. If he knew crew was a problem he should've had plan B and could've got on with raptor with different drilling crew.
It's cheap drilling cost .
master82: Although YOU "don't think any oil will be pumped out this year" and YOU "can't see anything brilliant happening within the next few months" - I assume you accept the possibility that it will - like PM says - happen just as well.
Taking this negative stance is certainly OK - particularly because it's just an individual opinion of somebody who is hardly invested in PM let alone substantially.
You used to be very positive. At which point (in time) did you start to lose faith in PM?
I don't think any oil will be pumped out this year.
MB gave up before he even started in his interview when he said due to china restrictions he might struggle with the workers from China..
He should have got another drilling company ready like the rest . Others have managed to start drilling and have a work plan.
China must need oil to keep their economy going or are they buying Russian oil at discount.
Let's see how this unfolds buy can't see anything brilliant happening here for next few months.
I’m guessing stop losses being triggered? Some people read the RNS and saw nothing but positivity (mentioning no names). However there were lots of things to be positive about if you are a willing to be pAtient... the next RNS could well drop without warning saying “all systems go”. Seems silly to sell at this price!
The workover/stimulation of Heron-1 could still sneak in this year, the drilling season doesn't close until mid-November in Mongolia (as stated by Mike Buck in a previous presentation) and its a few weeks operation to get Heron-1 ready to go. That would leave just over 6 months to get the job done... A lot can happen in 6 months with a co-operative central government. The surface equipment is on order also,
Regardless if production comes on this year or next year I'm happy to be patient, as all signals point to an increasing oil price (or "supply crisis" according to some analysts).
AIMHO/DYOR
It's all gone quiet over here - stunned silence following an amazing RNS?