Member Info for The_Gold_Mine

Quiggers52, the United States SPR today hit a level it last seen in 1984, and they are down to their last 50 million USUABLE barrels in SPR storage, which is running out fast. Also note, as far as I am aware there is still no flow through the Strait and the "deal" is dependent on Israel getting out of Lebanon, which Israel has said it will not do. Also, if Iran charges a crossing toll/service fees there is a good chance some of the GCC countries (notable Saudia Arabia) will refuse to pay and simply accept pumping less oil but receiving a higher price. Plus there is still weeks/months of minesweeping work to be done plus transit delays to consider before crude inventory depletion will be stopped. And also damage to facilities (upstream, midstream and downstream) which may prohibit previous production levels from being achieved.

If you want to believe because Trump tweeted everything was back to normal because he signed an MOU that the crisis is over then I guess that is your perogative, me , I think the bottom is in for oil now and this will play out with a delayed fuse, with the major impact still to be felt over the weeks and months to come.

Devil2789. I do not agree with your assessment, if oil spikes up to $150+ over the next couple of months as industry experts are alluding too then we will see new highs with or without an RNS, note that even Exxon and Chevron's CEO's are staying $150 + is coming.

It's a good time to be an Afentra shareholder

The first major newsflow from the organic drilling program is due in June with the Pacassa SW step-out well, meaning we should know the results inside of 5 weeks (worst case) or inside of 1 week(best case).

Extract from recent 2025 FY results RNS:-

- Pacassa SW drilling underway: the high impact Pacassa SW well operations were initiated in April, the well, which is carried, has the potential to add material production and reserves with results expected in June 2026.

Exciting times to be an AET investor.

Again we see similar unfounded statements from Charlie getting repeated... "...the numbers didn't add up then", clearly they did add up at the planning stage otherwise the drill would not have been sanctioned. The February 2025 Jadestone investors presentation states the following for the SKUA-11ST on page 18

"Forecast payback of 16 months with a 65% IRR" ... " Based on a Brent oil price assumption of US$80/bbl in 2025, US$77/bbl in 2026 and US$81/bbl in 2027 and escalated at 2% p.a. thereafter "

For what its worth some of the premier oil price analysts agencies are predicting all time high all prices in the coming months, including Cornerstone Analytics/Mike Rothman, HFI Research and others. Certainly Cornerstone Analytics is predicting higher for longer oil prices and based on one recent presentation stated brent would be at $190.75 USD/barrel if the Strait was closed for 12 weeks (which it is today). E.g. according to Cornerstone Analytics even if the Strait opened up TODAY (which doesn't appear likely), Brent will be at $190/barrel by Christmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcyP1m-gjpE skip to 13 minutes 34 seconds

I'm personally confident that the oil equities are in the early stages of a multi year bull market which has been exacerbated by the Hormuz crisis, and feel pretty confident Jadestone has only started it's re-rate higher.

This will be my last response to you are there is no point arguing with you as as soon as I can debunk one unsubstantiated point, you simply raise up more and I don't have the time to waste providing counter arguments against a guy who has shown a 100% negative posting bias and will simply keep generating negative posts regardless of the actual facts.

If you were a genuine Jadestone investor you would be celebrating the reversal in oil price outlook due to the Iran war but you don't seem to be capable of doing that. I'll let others draw their own conclusions as to why that may be.

Charlie, your historical comment claimed Skua-11ST was an under performing well which had not performed, when it is clear from the latest results that it is producing either at or above the pre-drill estimation. Whilst nobody enjoyed the weather related events that caused the cost overrun, the cost overrun was a separate issue from the well production performance. My own personal thoughts are the Skua-11ST will pay for itself quickly and turn out to be highly profitable in the current $100+ oil price environment we find ourselves in.

By the way,

Charlie156 has been spreading consistent negative stories about Jadestone with no basis, most recently calling the Skua-11ST an under-performing well with no evidence, which has turned out to be cobblers given the strong performance described in the latest results presentation for Skua-11ST. I would view his latest unsubstantiated outburst through a similar skeptical lense, the man has an agenda or is simply prone to painting everything that happens in the Jadestone world in a negative light with no underlying basis

BubbaBubbaBubba, how do you know the buoy is damaged? I didn't see any RNS with this information. Are you speculating or is this a fact?

Alphacat, why o why would you hold onto this share through an oil bear market and then sell it at the start of an oil bull market? That would be the stupidest investing strategy i´ve heard off. Current prices scream "BUY" to me given the current trajectory of the oil market, but for some reason you don´t seem to be talking about that...

I see you have a long history of posting on only one share (jadestone) and only in an extremely negative manner, that behaviour seems strange, it´s almost like you are not an investor at all and your account is setup to push a bearish narrative about this one share only for shorting purposes? Very odd posting history.

AIMHO/DYOR

US SPR can only release about 1 million bopd due to logistical constraints, the outage at the Straits of Hormuz is in the region of 15 million bopd. Any SPR release will not make a difference until the straits of hormuz are re-opened.

Iran is able to keep the Strait shut using cheap drones (aerial and naval) which are small, easy to hide, and Iran have thousands off. I politely disagree with anyone who thinks this situation is under control,

Bubba, I am not in agreement with your assessment on Skua-11ST underperforming, Skua-11ST was only online in 2025 for less than 5 months (brought on stream at the end of August). If you crunch the numbers it must have performed impressively in that time to drag up 2025 average production number to higher than 2024 production, given that Simphuhorn was sold with a closing date in April, e.g. less than 4 months of production could be attributed to Simphuhorn during 2025. I started to do a proper calculation yesterday but ran out of time, I will look to get it completed over the weekend and put it on the page. But people who are proclaiming SKUA11-ST is suffering from rapid declines or has underperformed are either not checking properly or have an agenda.

Bubba the hedges expire in September 2026, and from H2 2026 onwards is when I expect the structural bull market for oil to take off, as OPEC+ spare capacity is exhausted and US shale plateau continues.

The board don't have a crystal ball, and have after historical financing problems have understandably prioritised keeping the the company profitable and the balance sheet improving regardless of short term oil price movements in the near term.

Once we start to move into a higher oil price environment (and I personally believe that long-term $70+ oil is only a few short months away irrespective of what happens in Iran ) and the EIA's oil glut lies get exposed as fraudulent I expect the share price here to really start to move,

Sorry I should add a correction to my previous post:- VLE.TO management have stated they HOPE to be able to announce some news on the acquisition front in Q1,

My apologies for the oversight, AIMHO/DYOR as always

Bubba... I hold both JSE and VLE.TO, so can add some insight here -

Valeura has a large cash position of about $300 million, so about half the market cap is in cash. The other point is VLE.TO have demonstrated excellent operational management up to now, and remind me of an early Jadestone before they messed up badly at Montara. VLE.TO management have suggested they are going to announce an acquisition this quarter (Q1 2026), so people are potentially buying in advance of that. Note:- Valeura's acquisitions historically have been infrequent and very material for the company, they haven't shown any interest in buying anything which can't double or treble their production. So the market is maybe buying in expecting a big fish to be landed any day now.

I hold JSE, VLE.TO and AET just now and I like all three for different reasons. JSE should come good if they can keep delivering operationally and get the Vietnam project rolling in a rising oil price environment. I'm looking for 3-4x from here for JSE within a 2 year timeframe as a realistic target.

Decomm costs are already included in the 2P NPV10 of $799 million stated in the company investor presentation page 9

https://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/JSE-Corporate-Presentation-Feb-25-vF_website.pdf

It says so in note 1 of page 9. Admittedly oil prices have softened since December 2024, so I would expect the 2P NPV10 to have slackened off a bit, but essentially we are dirt cheap just now and that includes decomm costs.

Jadestone is primarily a recovery play at this point in time rather than a growth story IMO. It's trading with an EV of 1.5x Operating Cashflow, which is crazy cheap. If the company can convince the market it is a reliable producer again at it's legacy assets and build up a decent cash reserve it should re-rate materially upwards irrespective of what happens with Vietnam. But again Vietnam I would say is a done deal, it seems the country is desperate for the gas and Nam-du/U Minh is the only game in town for meeting the local requirement.

It seems more patience is needed in this one, but i'd say over 3-5 years and with continued operational excellence, a 3-4 bagger is a highly likely from here, with possibly a lot more if oil prices start motoring and/or a couple of decent aquisitions come through,

AIMHO/DYOR

M1Rob. Arrow's cash pile is increasing rapidly. And global oil inventories are drawing counter-seasonally and are at multi-year lows (per Keppler data). Therefore oil prices should be going up, not down. Also, it is unrealiistic to expect unceasing, uninterrupted month-on-month production growth without occasional dips or backsteps. Once the second rig is brought in and more horizontals are drilled I'm confident production will resume on an accelerated positive upward trend. AIMHO/DYOR.

New investors presentation out for June 2024:

https://arrowexploration.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Arrow-Corporate-Presentation-June-2024_Final-1.pdf

According to the last Freeport LNG news release restart is due "early October",

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Currently, it is estimated that the resumption of partial liquefaction operations will be early October 2022. With commencement of such operations, we expect to be able to deliver substantially all baseload production volumes. At this time, we continue to target year-end for a return to full production.
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http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9746&intAcc_ID=77

No additional updates have been provided by Freeport LNG to the market since the update made June 30th I believe? These things have a tendency to grow arms and legs, Jadestone recently suffered an oil leak on one of its FPSO and there was various hatchet job news articles and doomsday talk of "structural integrity" issues and implied long term shutdown of the facility... What transpired was a less than 3 week shutdown then the facility restarted again.

Thanks for the update Viable, can you reveal your source? Also, do you have an indication on when the next batch of drilling at Gwinville will start?

I find it concerning when companies drip out information informally via supposed "insiders" on bill boards as opposed to formal channels (interviews or presentations) and putting it squarely into the public domain for all to see, not least of all because the info put out which I see by these "insiders" has tended to be crap... Which I am not suggesting is the case here, but elsewhere this has been the case.

Adillathehun: yes the environmental activist has made a posting showing an oil tanker and added the words
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The bird of myth is scattered
Darkhan open your borders
And the oil haul has begun [crying emoji]
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Seems like PetroChina oil export is back in business....