George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
One month since the last Operational Update (5th May was the last one). I'm sure all investors would appreciate some newsflow, be it news of progress on permitting, arrival of equipment on site, developments on DQE partnership talks, signing of contract for Heron-1 workover and re-completion, etc etc
My feeling is things will pick-up for PetroMatad once they have brought Heron-1 online, I would assume once a solid revenue stream is established they would be able to get a bank loan against the Heron income stream + reserves report for further expansion after that... Possibly even look at bringing in an out-of-country drilling contractor if needs be to get things moving if the DQE partnership doesn't work out.
I'm not seeing how running out of money is a concern at this stage as they haven't completed their initial work commitment yet plus we are not significantly beyond the original on-stream date for Heron yet. Plus I don't think Petrovis would be too happy having to fork out more if they had nothing to show from the last bundle of cash provided.
AIMHO/DYOR
ART123: I think you got told on the ADV*N site there is a more active board, if you want everyone else to fit around your expectations for posting when and where you like you could be waiting a while for that to happen.
Good for you trading out of your position at a high point,
I guess the risks and expectations with trading are different from those looking to invest over a 2-3 year timescale.
ART123: Production from RCE-2 is actually slightly above pre-drill expectations?
It has been made clearly repeatedly that the wells in the llanos basin come on strong then tail off, there is another 6 drills for the upcoming drilling programme according to the investor presentation.
Whilst I don't particularly like the sell off today I think it's pretty standard for one of these microcap stocks that you're going to get unexpected volatility and minor setbacks from time to time, if investing was just a predictable straight line upwards everyone would be a successful investor... If you can't handle a bit of turbulence maybe ask yourself if AIM stocks is where you want to have your money at?
Looks like the Colombian Presidential Elections is heading for a run-off between Rodolfo Hernandez and Gustavo Petro in June.
hTTps://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61628589
The surprise success of Hernandez in taking second place would appear to be a gift to those opposed to the left winger Petro as previous polling I've seen shows the two populist candidates as being neck-and-neck for the run-off phase of the election.
hTTps://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-colombias-2022-presidential-election
Polling on this page shows the vote split evenly at 40.5% Petro 40.5% Hernandez.
Another thought to keep in mind is the momentum in this election at this stage appears to be with centrist popularist Hernandez, who staged a come-from-behind rally to take 2nd place in the first vote and who appears to be newer to national politics than the leftist Petro and therefore possibly has further gains to make as his message gets transmitted during the 2nd phase of the campaign.
Looking at the authors Wiki page tells a lot:
-----
In September 2017, Winnifrith authored an article that claimed that the FCA would not be shutting down Beaufort Securities.[10] In March 2018, Beaufort Securities was shut down, declared insolvent, and charged with fraud, following a joint FCA, FBI, SEC and DOJ investigation.[11][12][13][14][15]
------
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Winnifrith
------
Writing for a company operating out of a 4 bedroom farmhouse so it seems, which does not seem to be generating much cash....
Seems legit, huh? *cough* *cough*
************* registered address looks to be a 4 bedroom farmhouse in Wrexham, looking at the company accounts they don't appear to be making much money... They are giving PetroMatad a bargepole rating but I don't think they themselves are Berkshire Hathaway LOL. Delusions of grandeur, perhaps?
curious: I emailed investor relations for an update, I will post if they respond.
Also Bowley why are you still posting at 03.30am in the morning, do you not have business to attend too ? I thought Ulaanbaatar was 8 hours in front.
Sorry all the ??????? is the slavic text for Shiveekhuren-Sekhe, it won't let me paste them here
Bowley: the statement that "The borders are now open as per the Justice Ministers tweet today,", please can you elaborate on this, looking at the Justice Ministers twitter (@KhNyambaatar) there is a tweet about long distance coal shipment resuming, and a tweet about the Shiveekhuren-Sekhe (??????????-????) road opening, but no actual statement about border with china being re-opened.
Looking at the map the ??????????-???? road is in the south and is not the border crossing discussed in the PM presentation which is used by PetroChina for truck crossings. Therefore can I ask you elaborate further on your statement "The borders are now open as per the Justice Ministers tweet today"?
Simon: it doesn't say anywhere in the December RNS that drilling is "promised" to start in Q2; plus there has obviously been 2 more Operational Updates since then. But if you want to keep claiming that is the case, please do so!
SimonPartridge... I suggest you read the two operational updates made in February and then May 2022.
Nowhere does it promise anything will be online by end of Q2, given the amount of dependencies on 3rd party companies and government bodies etc I doubt it would be possible to make such a promise without leaving themselves open to a lawsuit.
Simonpartridge: Heron-1 needs stimulated and completed for production, it does not need drilled (is my understanding).
Also not sure where you read that Heron-1 would be done by end of June, I read that Q2 was the target date but did not read any firm commitment to that due to covid/chinese border closure ... the Latest RNSs are not in agreement with what you are saying either.
Sorry got cut off...
MATD is not going to 10 bag by Christmas, but may 10 bag over a 3 year period... Possibly by more if we start getting similar valuations for junior oilers as we saw during the last oil bull market prior to the 2014 crash (take a look at the MATD share price history from 2010-2011 to see how inflated companies with no assets were getting.... )
To me this looks like a case of right place, right time... As with anything investment related there is an element of chance, but I like the odds on this bet at this point in time with all the background developments in the energy sector.
No, I am most certainly not FairAnalyst.
Petro Matad happen to have a high quality resource in block XX, which they are a baw-hair away from bringing on-line (in my opinion).
There happens to be a worldwide supply crunch taking place in the oil markets due to years of underinvestment in the sector
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aramco-ceo-warns-global-oil-crunch-due-lack-investment-2022-05-23/
(So said the CEO of Saudi Aramco today)
I'm personally of the believe that the management team are up to the job of getting a tank, nodding donkey and generator installed and bringing the Heron field online, based on my own (limited) research:-
I learned that Salamander Energy bought some decent sized projects on during Mike Buck's tenure as COO, including a wellhead platform (if you need convincing just search "salamander energy wellhead platform" in google).
By my simple reasoning if Mike Buck can handle a new offshore platform as COO (I assume he would have been involved in the project as COO) I would also expect him to be able to handle putting in a storage tank, generator and nodding donkey at Heron-1 also...
Beyond that I understand there is various guys who have been on this board a number of years and have grown impatient and/or negative about the share, which is fair enough.
Anyway
I do not believe MATD will 10 bag by Christmas, in fact
A lot of Nervous Nellies on here.
Still almost 6 full months of the drilling season remaining (mid-November cut-off advised by Mike Buck previously).
Heron-1 surface equipment already on order - almost certainly from Chinese suppliers (meaning fast delivery, if not off-the-shelf).
China now starting to re-open.
The contract with the chosen well completions contractor is in final form, now just awaiting confirmation that equipment and crews for the completion and readying for production of Heron 1 are available once Petro Matad are ready to mobilise.
Well stimulation and completion activities are advised as short duration (between 2-4 weeks), and is described as a "routine activity".
Discussions with PetroChina to share logistics and facilities were " progressing well" as stated in an update provided by Investor Relations 11 days ago (to me via email).
Anyone who's betting against Heron-1 coming online this year is taking a gamble, and is not seeing the wider changes going on in the energy markets and what it means for Petro Matad....
There is a massive impetus by governments world wide to secure additional oil supplies, the clues are everywhere:
- USA allowing discussions with Venezuela and Iran in order to secure more supplies
- Joe Biden asking OPEC to pump more oil
- Boris Johnson asks Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia to pump more oil
- etc etc.
My opinion, the world has taken its eye of the ball with all the green distractions, and forgotten that its the dirty black stuff that keeps the world spinning, and is now just realising that the much hyped green future is in no way ready to meet the worlds needs in its current form.
AIMHO/DYOR
https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q1%20Commentary/2022.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
Goehring & Rozencwajg commentary on the near-term future for the oil market ( the document is about the gas market but it also discusses the oil market):
------
"We are now beginning to understand what a world looks like as it runs out of spare oil pumping capacity. Even with the huge releases of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices have hardly pulled back. Global inventories, now at record lows, continue to draw counter-seasonally and are reaching dangerously low levels. Even with all the dislocations caused by the Ukrainian conflict and COVID problems in China, global oil demand in Q4 will approach global pumping capability according to our modelling. Strong demand, declining production, record low inventories, and now no spare pumping capacity—all these factors will push oil prices higher in the second half of 2022. Even in the face of all these factors, investor interest in energy markets remains incredibly subdued. The advances we have seen to date have basically been short covering and active managers buying on the margin. Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense. "
-----
lambo: I asked investor relations on the topic of bringing in a rig from somewhere else, they responded as per the below:
"International mobilisation costs tend to make contractors without equipment already in country uncompetitive on price unless a commitment can be made to a very large programme but Petro Matad will continue its discussions with DQE and other drilling contractors and will update the market on progress when necessary. "
Nice to see the SP holding up in a terrible market bloodbath today. Hopefully the weaker holders have been shook out.
I try to remember that in Petro Matad's 14 year history it has never been in such a good position,
- Oil resource discovered and Exploitation license granted
- Fund raise already carried out ($10million) with sufficient cash in the bank to bring on the Heron field
- The award of the contract to build the new crude oil pipeline between block 19 and the new Mongolian refinery locks in the importance of the Heron field to the Mongolian government and PetroChina both due to close proximity to block 19
- High and rising oil price environment likely to be sustained due multi-year underinvestment in new oil fields and exclusion of Russia from energy markets
- OPEC projected to run out of spare production capacity this year according to some analysts
- Multiple signals have been given out by the Mongolian central government that they want and need an oil industry and will be supportive to companies looking to develop new fields
Whilst sentiment is currently low in MATD due to the placing last year and general market negativity/chinese covid restrictions, MATD has never been closer to oil production - surface equipment has been ordered and there is almost 6 full months left in the drilling season in Mongolia.
The current share price looks like a bargain entry point for those willing to take a low-risk bet which offers potential returns of multiples of the current share price,
AIMHO/DYOR
Hoping the news flow picks up here, 2022 is meant to be the year PM transitions from explorer to producer. I don't fancy another 2 month delay until the next Operational Update.