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We will see just how oversold we are. Not saying this will get back over 60p this year, but next year very possible.
I'm not expecting 60p for say 3 - 4 years.
I'm planning for a long recession following this virus. Although bizzarely it may not be a technical ressecion during that period due to the low base this quarter will start us on.
But let's call it 3-4 years of relatively high unemployment compared to the last 4 years.
Interest rates will remain low and profits will be hard to grow.
However I would not be surprised to hit 40p this year.
Then maybe growing 5p each year there after if we recover well.
Clearly there will be the usual spikes and troughs, but that is what I will be judging my investment decision on. If it moves quickly to 60p then I will be one happy camper.
"I'm not expecting 60p for say 3 - 4 years."
i would be very disappointed if that was the case; however i feel you are wrong, during the financial crash lloy bounced over a £, i sold about 110pennies, traded it ever since. the economy will be open to wild swings and lloy will swing high and low.
Marcus
Your forecast is highly pessimistic and way off in time frame as soon as a remedy for this covid -19 is found the price of the share will rebound to pre crisis levels ,then within a year rise to circa 80p as the economy quickly recovers.
Boldboy
Your forecast is overly optimistic and based on hope. Lloyd's won't find itself in a better place post Covid neither will any other bank. If markets do go up through money printing, real value will go down, so no further forward in terms of true wealth.
I'm happy to be wrong on the recovery if it rebounds as you expect.
My view is more about what I am willing to accept.
I'm in at 29p so unless it starts falling into the teens I'm fairly comfortable waiting to get a return.
I don't need the capital for about 20 years so I have plenty of time if not plenty of cash.
Boldboy
Your rose tinted specs leave me speechless
how can it not hit 60p by next year, the market cap at moment is 23b. we where looking at a 11% return on dividends to bring the return down the share price needs to increase . lost dividends this year will go towards provisions and tax will be saved on the provisions so i do expect it to get back to 60p next year
I would have to agree with BB. Maybe not 80p but this will recover a lot sooner than 3/4 years.
Boldboy
Even after 20 years a successful vaccine for HIV hasn't materialised. But a ****tail of drugs continually taken does enable suffers to led a normal life.
Our yearly flu vaccination took years to develop and has to be modified yearly to best guess the next winters flu virus strain. COVID-19 virus is most likely to change as well and like the flu a COVID-19 vaccine would need to be modified yearly too.
Corners cannot be cut to enable a safe COVID-19 vaccine to be successfully used Globally.
Realistically the earliest is the beginning of next year to produce and vaccinate billions
Tomorrow is only relevant if you're sitting on cash waiting to jump in. I'm already heavily invested in Lloyds at what i consider good value, but currently sitting on a paper loss. It's hard to read the market in anticipation of tomorrow and it raises some questions. How much negativity has the market already priced in? Even though tomorrows announcements are likely show an increase in bad debt provision, the market might decide that things are better than anticipated.
What really matters is where the price will be in a year and it's highly likely it will be around 70 to 90% higher than now, unless Armageddon is approaching, which i don't believe.
Rosewall I can assure you I have no rose tinted specs just a degree of foresight ,I predicted a price of 30p in february when the share was 53p and was laughed at, unfortunately I did not take full advantage as I was trying to save my substantial dividend ,what I did'nt see was the HMG intervention so I was robbed twice by this crappy virus .
I have the experiences behind me of the hidden pitfalls but I also have made a lot of money from trading and divis in this stock since the F- crash so I consider it a solid position and will continue to believe in its future.
"COVID-19 virus is most likely to change as well and like the flu a COVID-19 vaccine would need to be modified yearly too"
Mick-b, the longer CV19 circulates the globe the more people will get it, the more it will mutate and the better our herd immunity. Humans build herd immunity through exposure over time and CV19 will only be a risk to people living in isolated remote areas of the world 10 years from now, not that there are many of them left. Flu is only a significant risk to the elderly and people with compromised immune systems, CV19 is no different.
The SP is related to the earnings too which noone seems to have mentioned, earning take a hit then the SP won't just bounce back up to 60p. When earning are fully restored, then sentiment comes back, then the prices comes back.
You can just argue about how long that'll take.
Mick-B The chase for a drug to counter HIV is governed by cost and the amount of effort the drug companies are willing to spend on research. In view of the financial return from a relatively small portion of the population and because there is a mix of drugs that now combat the effects, the urgency and appetite for a cure is minimal add to that the spread of the desease as minimised as education as made people aware of its cause.
The Covid-19 vaccine is a massive money maker and even with genetic tweaks it will be very quickly produced within the next twelve months.
"The SP is related to the earnings too which noone seems to have mentioned, earning take a hit then the SP won't just bounce back up to 60p"
Well that's where the risk comes in. Any investment is speculative and what you have to weigh up is, is Lloyds cheap, how long you can stay invested, is Lloyds likely to drop significantly from here, what are the chances that the economy will bounce back rapidly and finally your risk aversion.
Someone investing now could potentially make big gains, what are the odds of Lloyds going down rather than up in the future?
FLECCY
Flu herd immunity doesn't protect against next years flu.
Yearly flu vaccination does that, as the flu virus changes, into a different strain when it returns the following year
COVID-19 like most virus change strains so a yearly vaccination is essential
"Flu herd immunity doesn't protect against next years flu."
When was the last time you had a Flu vaccine, the last time i had one was never. The CV19 vaccines, in years to come, will be targeted at a small percentage of the population, ie those deemed most at risk. I find it unimaginable that entire populations will be vaccinated going forward. The truth is, CV19 will fade over time and herd immunity will make it insignificant. As the media says, this is a new virus, in a couple of years it wont be.
HIV now has pRep...to protect against getting it not curing HIV.
with that aside C-19 is showing early indications that it enlargers vital organs in children. If this is the case then i would expect a resurgence, mutations and also expect to see not seasonal but ebbs and flows all year round until a vaccine is formulated and made widely available...
FLECCY
For FULL protection against flu, the yearly flu jab is essential
ASK ANY DOCTOR
Last years flu jab gives no protected FROM THIS YEARS FLU
ASK ANY DOCTOR
the problem is that health services are faced with cytokine storm syndrome...
"For FULL protection against flu, the yearly flu jab is essential"
I don't dispute that, my point is that once a full CV19 vaccination program is completed once, the only people who will require ongoing vaccinations will be at risk groups, not entire populations.
Once CV19 is fully understood, it will become statistically insignificant and with the amount of resource being thrown at it, i don't expect that is too far away.
Fleccy - I take it you are not 'old' (whatever that menas).
As Mick is trying to allude to: EACH year a new vaccine has to be developed to capture that years' flu endemic. You understand and accept that don't you? Ergo - the same will have to happen to Covid EACH year. It will mutate (make no bones about it).
Failure to develop a viccine EVERY year will mean that covid will again present itself as a major threat to health (and the economy). So it will not in your words "fade over time". It is here to stay. And before you say it.......Covid is atleast 2.5 to 3 times more lethal than flu.
Finally....when you catch the flu...god help you if you are infirm or "old"...because it will seriously challenge your immune system...possibly to the extent that it could cause lasting damage if not death. In future if/when you catch the CV and are infirm/old......woe betide you .
This is NOT just another 'flu bug' doing the rounds (for many, not all).
"Failure to develop a viccine EVERY year will mean that covid will again present itself as a major threat to health (and the economy). So it will not in your words "fade over time". It is here to stay. And before you say it.......Covid is atleast 2.5 to 3 times more lethal than flu.
Finally....when you catch the flu...god help you if you are infirm or "old"...because it will seriously challenge your immune system"
I didn't say that they wouldn't need to develop vaccines to deal with mutation, what i implied was that future Vaccines would only be targeted at vulnerable groups for further CV19 waves. Most people will build up enough initial immunity to deal with the virus mutations and likely suffer mild symptoms, so from that perspective it will fade. It's not like we'll be going into lockdown year after year and entire populations being vaccinated against CV19. It will get the same treatment as Flu does now, ie the elderly and vulnerable groups will be vaccinated, most of us wont be, after a one off mass immunisation program.
Coronavirus: The history of pandemics suggests we've only seen the tip of the iceberg...
The term pandemic may conjure images of medieval plagues but they are a recurring blight of the modern era. Since the 1770s we have had a series of global epidemics: cholera smited the human race in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries; there have been a series of influenza outbreaks since 1890.
While Covid-19 is moderate by historical standards, features of both the virus and modern society have intensified its impact. It is a novel virus, meaning little natural immunity. It is highly infectious, up to 80 per cent of cases are asymptomatic, and it has a long incubation period in which people are infected by show no symptoms. But it then causes severe symptoms in at least a fifth of patients and death in between 0.3 and 1 per cent – many of whom have underlying conditions. The healthy make the sick sicker – and often without knowing it.
These traits are exacerbated by features of contemporary society. Technological advances may equip us with some of the tools to combat novel viruses, but economic integration, long supply chains, the scale of travel, the way health systems are run combined with a movement of married women into the labour force and change in the way we care for the elderly have made the impact of an infectious disease much greater.
https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-the-history-of-pandemics-suggests-weve-only-seen-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter