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"I'd be extremely surprised if a windfall tax would be applied to any small cap AIM stock. Comments bandied around thus far have concerned "those with the widest shoulders""
Any windfall tax will almost certainly be increasing the Ring Fence Corporation that HMRC applies to the specific profits from activities on the UK continental shelf, which would mean it applies to all revenues from the North Sea only and not a general levy on corporation tax capturing non UK domiciled revenues. So it won't impact any profits that I3E generate from Canada, but would in theory reduce the value of Serenity, although a windfall tax would suggest it is time limited.
Just one additional point on the SP - although Henry Hub natural gas pricing is strong (indeed it has just broken $9), I3e sells on the Alberta benchmark (AECO), which has weakened somewhat through the last 3 weeks - it peaked at CND8.30 in early May, but has slipped back to CND6.00 in recent days - its obviously still far stronger than the financial budget, but may be part of the reason that I3E SP has been slightly weaker in recent weeks.
“ I was told by the UK govt back in 2014 that North Sea oil was running out”
Well technically it is unless you claim oil is regenerating faster than it is being extracted
The PoO and the cash flow will have exceeded all BoD expectations, (and most PIs!) generating huge income and potentially a cash pile.
In the bigger picture though, the question is can they spend that cash responsibly and successfully run a production company. Seems the jury is out at 27p ish.
The recent placing came from Bybrook's 294M. He had provided the earlier loan note funding which came with certain requirements, and subsequent amendments connected to the 5p fund raise for Gain, and more investment from Bybrook, leading to the completion of the fraternal opportunity that satisfied some of the requirements.
Why sell some now? His approval has to be gained, along with the NSTA (nee OGA) licence split and EOG acceptance.
Would that make him an insider wrt the planned drill?
How is the licence split affecting the current Dolphin contract?
What are the plans for Liberator West and Minos High?
Are there any other unknowns or impediments? Remember the BHGE block on dividend was never declared.
How long does it take to find a chairman? Linda has been Interim chair since September 2019, is she not worthy of appointing to the position?
Why has she, as 'the standout candidate', now become a new Non-exec at Hurricane?
Why are there still unclaimed 0.01p warrants?
Why have the BoD not taken up any of the 5p options (with the exception of Linda, who didn't have any @ 0.01p)?
How much longer is the ESG going to take? Due in Q1, then with Q1 update but still undergoing 'final review'.
Why is it so late, whose finger is not on the pulse? Or are they over optimistic with time lines as evidenced by the dividend process which was also months later than initially suggested?
Will there be some new info for EOG to share on the 16th, it's already 4 weeks since the signing?
Perhaps the new PRO-moter on Advfn can help shift the 60M...
Near 50% of petrol is already taxed when you buy a gallon of petrol at the pump in the UK.
I was told by the UK govt back in 2014 that North Sea oil was running out, I don’t believe anything the UK govt says.
fairdealer - good point, but on the other hand is it conceivable that Canada may also look at windfall taxes at some point ? Who knows but regardless - i3e is looking strong.
Profits for I3e is being generated in Canada, is it conceivable Canadian Treasury would be content to allow HMRC to demand a Windfall Tax on assets Licenced in their Territory?
I'd be extremely surprised if a windfall tax would be applied to any small cap AIM stock. Comments bandied around thus far have concerned "those with the widest shoulders". I expect this applies to the BP's, Shells etc of the world not AIM growth stocks, but one never knows, either way if it comes I also expect its more likely a token gesture to appease the green moaners.
Perhaps the windfall should in fact be on the green taxes / levies that have been raised over the years and squandered on projects that will never and have never given a return, or provided the energy needs or are not as green as the fake and doctored 'end delivery' reports.
Perhaps if that fat oaf in office had stopped listening to his wife and ensured greater investment into home grown energy, we might now have energy security and be selling excess gas to Germany instead of screwing our own population with high prices.
Just opinion of course, lol.
Everyone who has experience in stocks and shares (particularly AIM) understand that shares never go up in a straight line - why people expect i3e to behave differently is a complete mystery to me.
With regards to the odd comment that i3e is the only share not keeping pace with the POO and Gas - I say rubbish. Shubham Garg published valuations / metrics on 57 Canadian Oil and Gas shares which he tells me is the complete universe of oil and gas stocks in Canada. When I compare valuation metrics (mainly FCF yield) - 3 months or so ago i3e was the 4th cheapest stock on this metric by my calculation, when I re-ran the calculation a month or so back i3e were about the 17th cheapest out of 57 stock i.e. i3e had rerated higher relative to many of its Canadian peers.
Despite the bullish oil and gas prices - one item that may be impacting share prices is the prospect of windfall taxes and how they might apply to i3e. The Telegraph I think has an article this morning that says the Chancellor is just about to do a u-turn on this. Lets see how this impacts the SP today. Even if they do apply to i3e - i think i3e is so cheap and FCF is so strong that any impact is likely to be short lived in the scenario that it is a one off tax.
Instead of looking at the day/ week price, look at the year trend. Inveating is long term, noy a quick hit. Up 100% even more in some cases, thats a great yearly return, bet the banks can't match it....
A large institutional holder has swapped/got rid of some shares - be that nearly 6% of the company, they may wish to offload a few more - who knows.
For a share price that's considerably more than doubled in the last 9/12 months, you have to expect a period of stagnation, the fact it seems to have a solid foundation at 26-28p is great news for when further details reach us. Ignore the daily ripples and look again in 2/4/6 months, if in Nov/Dec when details of how much we made in Q2 and Q3 are known, serenity will have advanced and we are still at 28p, then i might have some issues, until then i out it down to profit taking from institutions who have made exceptionally good money backing I3E - the weeks/months of large after hours trades should tell you what you need to know.
ArK87 has it right - generating cash to pay monthly divis and still sitting on cash plus the prospect of soaring gas prices as confirmed by OfGem puts an even glossier glow on the drilling prospects that we have. The spread here is normally too wide for day trading so I can only see one direction in both the short and medium term so have topped up accordingly.
"Is the dividend factor compounded each month on the ploughed back sums?"
Yes. Set up DRIP with your broker and you'll then be getting dividends on your reinvested dividends.
HH holding up nicely.
Am unfamiliar on monthly divi procedure: Is the dividend factor compounded each month on the ploughed back sums? It would suit me if it is the case, particularly if Serenity and drilling sequence materialises, leading to a flourishing growth story.
Some of you here being very foolish. Stop looking at share price and look at oil/gas prices. We are printing money right now and could be on cusp of oil/gas moving even higher which could see our profits go stratospheric.
Yes, it's true that the sp isn't keeping up with the company value, but I'm confident we'll get there. It's frustrating but on the plus side it means that the reinvested monthly divi will buy even more shares, which is exactly the benefit that the BoD intended when they moved to a monthly divi:
"the Company's board of directors has determined that moving to a monthly dividend payment will expedite the return of capital to its shareholders, enabling potential reinvestment and improved returns during a time of market strengthening."
We are effectively going down, as you quite rightly say we all know how much cash is being generated but the share price or market cap is not keeping up with this increase in NOI and this divergence is a little frustrating.
"How is it that gas and oil are soaring and we keep going down?"
I share your frustration but we're not actually going down; despite what the daily % change might say the sp lows are getting higher, it's just that the highs are staying the same, probably because there's a big sell order in place that's capping the rise at 28.5p currently.
In any case, we all know how much cash is being generated and how excellent the company's prospects are so it will just be a matter of time before the overhang clears and the SP increases to catch up with peers.... then we'll all be wishing we bought more during this lull.
I'm not entirely convinced the number of shares or day traders are to blame for the recent lack of direction. Gas prices on the CME for June expiration are up 10% in 2 days and I would expect at least some of that to translate into a price rise for i3 but not at all. Something is up but can't put my finger on it.
Acquisition or no acquisition the billion plus shares will keep us in the same boat, stagnant sp. That's why buy backs are necessary for investors capital return, look at almost all Canadian small to medium cap companies their sp continues to rise to new highs basically ever other day.
I tend to agree, but the BOD might have something in mind aquisition wise.
So buy backs to raise the SP and make the shareholders happy or invest it in a money making aquisition and ultimately raise the SP that way ?
Or both ?
How is it that gas and oil are soaring and we keep going down? Still believe too many shares out, week hands keep sinking us. The buy backs need to happen, day trading and shorting are killing us. This stock should be hard to short and day trade. IMO.