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less. . . obviously left, butter fingers
billy/daytrader/jond
its started already,consumer spending data,is already starting to drop.
obviously,as they raise rates,spending gets tight
and yeah,energy bills....GULP.
How about the gov stop spending all these billions, it wont cross their minds, so maybe print some more
jondoyogi
central banks,cool off the economies inflation,by raising rates...they all do it
and it works,
so all you have to do,is wait till they stop hiking interest rates.
then in theory,that's the bottom and everything,begins to normalise.
unless your trading on the volitility,like qz
tnjacod
QE/bond buying?....they have stopped m8.
just recently
probably,another reason,why the markets are drifting lower
I understand, increase interest rates, my daughter has less to spend and inflation drops but... much of our inflation is fuel, gas, food and things we have little flexibility over, so how will a raise in interest rates affect those, maybe I can see a bit but only a bit. I don't think this is the same as past inflationary times. How do we stop the gov spending, not them stop us
Thing is i thinks its actually going to do us all good in the end having to tighten the belts a little, its going to stop us buying all the pointless 'latest' cr@p that we dont need. Changing the mobile every year to get the latest model that does just the same thing, same with cars, bigger and bigger tv's with definition better than our eyes can cope with, celebrity endorsed keep fit dvds and similar 'pushed' cr@p, push bikes costing multiple thousands of pounds because they are made from bits of the space shuttle or carbon fibre, yet more cheap shi7 garden furniture that lasts one year then is thrown away broken etc etc.
All of this shi7 comes from China these days and causes massive environmental and, economic harm to all the countries buying it except the sellers.
People have got far to used to having this nonsense 'want want now now' lifestyle, so my hope is these increases in items we actually need, gas leccy, fuel, food etc makes us all revisit our priorities somewhat, maybe make and grow what we need ourselves and cut the strings of dependancy on other countries that dont actually like us much anyway, and are only out to empty our pockets.
Brokers wrong...never! wheres the £7 ? Fooking morons clearly they wasn't paying attention to the world's difficulties ..there's a lot more pain to come from now until October thsts for sure
Day ..yes it will do a lot of people a lot of good the rich .. they'll get richer :-(
Yea those analyst prices were bonkers. Maybe they meant in 3 years from now!
billy, not us poor glen holders though, pockets being picked again.
Day I'm out of glencore had a few trades made a few good 10 pointers .. my oiler as floored me dam my greed could of been out even. Who knew!
Skill?? Bloody luck
yeah billy, BP has done the dirty on me too. Still well in profit on it same as glen, but nowhere near as much as i was at the big recent highs. Ah well, its only money, and theres always tomorrow. . . . . .
Jacob this how it was explained to me
Dear Reader,
Last week, a Japanese tax accountant messaged me: “I’m afraid of the collapse of the Japanese economy…” Luckily, he speaks fluent English after a stint studying in California. But he hasn’t lost the Japanese habit of understating everything… I don’t think.
The message wasn’t entirely random. I’d asked him about the crashing yen and the latest outbreak of insanity at the Bank of Japan.
While the rest of the world is busy trying to bring down inflation thanks to a global energy crisis, the country which is famously dependent on importing energy is busily loosening monetary policy even more…
But, back to the Japanese tax accountant for a moment. Our conversation about Japanese monetary policy started a few months ago, as these things do, when we were out drinking in small-town Japan.
At the jazz-themed bar, I asked my friend, whose name means “three rounds” in Japanese, about Kuroda-san.
The head of Japan’s central bank is a household name in Japan. And being a household name is never a good thing for the head of a central bank. But, in this case, Kuroda-san is quite famous globally too. Which is really, really bad.
What makes Kuroda-san so special internationally, as far as I can tell, is a typical Japanese behaviour. It is usually misinterpreted by Westerners, leading to severe misunderstandings and, occasionally, marriage.
In Japan, laughter is about dealing with awkwardness.
Unless it’s a real belly laugh… but this article is about monetary policy, remember.
Usually, Japanese people laugh when you’re embarrassing yourself without realising it. It’s a warning that you’ve made some sort of mistake. The Japanese way to deal with the resulting awkwardness is to laugh politely to alert you of your error. Which doesn’t work.
How does this play out?
You think they liked your joke, but you’re actually on the “women only” carriage of the train. The joke just unleashes the pent-up awkwardness.
If Japanese people smile at you at the hotel, something is wrong. It’s probably because you’re still wearing the designated toilet slippers in the lobby.
Japanese people also laugh when they’re embarrassing themselves. Which only ever happens when they try to speak English, of course...
Now, Kuroda-san has a habit of laughing like a maniac whenever he tries to speak English. Which usually happens when he’s on Western TV making comments about Japanese monetary policy.
He thinks the laughter is making light of his broken English – a way to defuse any misunderstanding, excuse any miscommunication or avoid any unintended misinterpretation.
It’s a signal that people should sympathise with his embarrassment for his poor English skills, a way to apologise for not being able to express his meaning in the precise sort of way that central bankers are supposed to do.
Unfortunately, laughing like a maniac while discussing your own monetary policy for the world’s most indebted government is interpreted very differently by Western people…
Cue the collapse in the yen as the Bank of Japan tries to pin down Japanese bond yields.
We’ll get to how bad this crash is in a moment, and why it should scare you. First, consider the situation the Bank of Japan is in – it’s certainly no laughing matter.
Japan’s government debt is terrifyingly high. If interest rates rise, the cost of paying interest will be downright dangerous.
And so, the Bank of Japan is trying to cap government bond yields at 0.25%. In order to do this, it is buying as many government bonds it needs to in order to keep yields that low. It is both funding the government and keeping the government’s borrowing costs down in one massive quantitative easing (QE) exercise.
But financial markets aren’t buying it – either figuratively or literally. They don’t think the Bank of Japan can keep yields that low with energy prices triggering high inflation all around the world, even in places that export the energy Japan imports.
Even the Japanese tax accountant doesn’t believe the inflation statistics any more, he told me.
And so, investors are selling out of Japanese bonds in anticipation of the Bank of Japan having to raise interest rates and crash its own bond market as the authorities in the United States, the UK, the euro area and Australia have done.
For now, fighting the speculative attack on its government bond market is forcing the Bank of Japan to create vast amounts of yen to buy Japanese government bonds. And that increase in the amount of yen is causing its value to crash on foreign exchange markets.
The problem here is highlighted in the headline from Markets Insider: “The Japanese yen used to be a “safe haven”. But it has just crashed to a 20-year low”.
This causes a lot of different problems. The least of which is that my Japanese parents-in-law are retired and living in Barcelona at the moment…
The yen’s crash also disrupts trade because Japan is an export powerhouse, for example. But there are more interesting angles…
Japan lends a lot of money to the world. It has been the world’s top creditor for 31 years in a row!
So… instability in Japan is a major problem for anyone else around the world who is trying to finance themselves. Which is pretty much anyone, at this point, thanks to crashing bond markets just about everywhere.
For some reason, the Japanese have an old habit of funding the wrong sorts of people at the wrong sorts of times. Japanese investors piled into Asian debt before the Asian financial crisis, sub-prime CDOs during the housing boom and the wrong European sovereign debt before Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
This happens because they like to look for a little more yield in exchange for taking on a little more risk: this is because their home bond market doesn’t get much yield thanks to the Bank of Japan’s long standing and mad monetary policy.
It’s called reaching for yield and it often results in your hand getting lopped off.
Higher yield types of investments are the ones to blow up when things go bad, while the safer bonds tend to perform well during such times.
So, instability in Japanese funding as Japan experiences economic problems is a real worry. It exposes the weaker borrowers to a lack of lenders at a crucial time.
But I also have some good news… for my in-laws in Barcelona. The euro is next on the block.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is going the way of Japan with its monetary policy – prioritising the affordability of government debt over inflation rates.
The ECB had an emergency meeting last week to discuss the European sovereign bond market chaos. The risk of the euro area falling apart is rising as the interest rates on government debt surge and the differences between German and weaker nations’ interest rates surge too.
The ECB considers it a part of its mandate to save the euro from falling apart. And the real question now is which mandate is more important – inflation or keeping sovereign debt in Greece and Italy affordable for those governments. Because the ECB, like the Bank of Japan, is being forced to choose.
If you’re not sure what the choice will be, consider that the ECB will likely cease to exist if the euro does…
There’s a deep irony here. For years, many people argued that the world will turn Japanese. This referred to slow growth, deflation, demographic implosion and economic malaise, not good food, high living standards or a lack of insulation in homes which requires heated toilet seats as a result.
But what if the “turning Japanese” crowd has it precisely backwards? What if Japan is leading Europe into an inflationary nightmare, not a deflationary one?
What if Japan is currently revealing that, when push comes to shove, central bankers will always back their mates at the Treasury over those of us who need our money to maintain its purchasing power?
That is, after all, what tends to happen historically. Not many currency systems have opted for government insolvency when faced with a crisis. They prefer to print and trash the value of the currency instead.
And so … I’d like to reassure my in-laws. The euro is likely to crash like the yen is doing now. They’ll be able to bring me chorizo for New Year after all.
Nick Hubble
Editor, Fortune & Freedom
Billybigwig Yes
My little glenda is getting bullied by the men in black! F$$k em! Glenda making so much cash we be buying rio soon! the pound weaker means better divs 2. Buybacks going very well!
Eviking..men in black :-)))
With all miners taking a hit on their SP's, it will be interesting to see if this leads to any industry M & A's. Glen was a supposed target for BHP, and Glen themselves stated they were looking for a new aquisition with all the free flowing cash generated in the last 12 months.....i guess everyone is waiting for the bottom before piling in.....
I think the MsM, all boards on lse and the entire public should remember and pay homage to Oddball. No point at all in wishing for what nobody wants, so lets have 'less of the negative ways Moriarty"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AEj3LA2vSo
Re acquisitions ..NO! knowing our luck they'll do another extrata buy at the dam top and it falls for five freaking years mount up the cash become cash rich no debt then glencore will be a perfect hold
Livingthedream 10:32
Could have written it myself whole hearted agree