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Thanks Jerry. Will have a closer look this afternoon at the maths but as you say the factors are so variable.
Kempey, of course its a guess as there is nothing known in the numbers, but its as good a guess as anyone elses. Last time I did the maths it was about 1p for 1myn ozs based on total recoverable ozs in the ground (100% not ggp share).
5myn X $175 / 1.3 X 0.3 /4145 = 4.87p. Of course the $175 could be any number you like (within reason GI...).
Hey Kempey,I can’t remember the post as it was a while ago but there was some good sense and maths to it,also the numis target against the sprott estimated resource stacked up against it. Plus it’s far easier than putting a bunch of maths to it ,hahaha,paddy can you remember the post,it was strong enough reasoning for me to accept it as a rough calf on so predictions but of course there are tons of factors that could alter that to the better or worse
Hi speedy good to see a name I know.
I tend to agree about the presentation today,remember the report has already been drafted and cut off for results going from previous quarterlies was about 20-30 days prior to the release,so they have the results going in the report 6 days from now,it would indeed be very strange to focus on HAV to the industry as they are if it wasn’t significant,remember we arnt their only JV,they have loads,but from there presentations it seems to be Caria/redchris and HAV,I am as excited as the rest of us here and feel we are already derailed to the downside here,fair value at present I feel would be 2.8-3 based on what we already know,so I’m hoping for a rise to close to that before the report,doesn’t really matter,like paddy,I’ve been here a while and I ain’t selling or trading a bean for the next two to three years when I expect my investment to have doubled from here at an absolute non,until then I’ll dream of 20moz and the camper van it will buy me ??
Hi Chrisatbirdies. What took you so long? ATB Speedy
Agreed Stuart that makes sense with that estimate there
The fact that the presentation highlights Haverion significantly which shows newcrest are very bullish on it (otherwise why else feature it so prominently)
Coupled with the recent prim tweets and that GH just said last week that this will be a transformational year (interview below)
brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5e1eae1efb21a407ce74cd35/event/?previewEventId=5e1eae1efb21a407ce74cd35
These are signs for something big coming. Hold for gold here
Stuart...is the 1p for 1m oz a guesstimate or a calculation based on value of gold at x against cost of production and is it based on 25% or total value to the project as opposed to GGP's share?
Don’t disagree goldi,I Work of 1p for 1moz as a very rough estimate on SP
Numis,good lord,I’m going back to bed
Sprott and munis I meant ,lil as apples would say
I think we need to be a little more grounded guys! 20m Oz is now being handed about as if it’s almost expected! 20m Oz, krikey,many of us would be rich if we hit that, remember sporty report and humid target off the back,that was estimating 3moz from memory and humid are no minnows and neither are sprott. Don’t get me wrong,I battle to sleep at night when I think of the remote possibility of 20moz,but anything about 3moz will double our SP from here with many already 100% up,to me that’s the downside here,a mere 3moz,but at 4p with 3moz I’ll still be a very happy man, personally I think we could be looking at between 7-12 which is just a guess,but 20moz,that’s the stuff of dreams,10moz is prob an easy 500% in itself! Sure I hope we’re all wrong and it’s 30moz,but come on,most likely atm to be 5moz in the bag imo,anything more is a huge bonus!
Hi after heavy losses in sirius minerals I've decided to take a punt on this share. Just thought I'd introduce myself
MS. The risk of any hostile take over is small, very small. Junior explorers create the seed corn for miners like NC. The message to the industry would be to keep clear in the future. The mining industry by its very nature is a long term play. In terms of any short cuts from NC these will not happen. The terms of the JV are clear in terms of minimal spend and We are starting to understand the true benefit of having GH leading the dream team here....that was a shrewd deal preventing any short cut scenario and ensuring we get true value be it for 5 or 30%.
In terms of risk in my view at the moment, consider the minimum that you believe Newcrest will proceed to mine....consider the worst case scenario for price in the ground and what 5% of that could give us as a war chest to move the other Patterson projects through the value chain. Form your own conclusions. I am more comfortable with my investment and long term expectation than at any point over the last 3 years.
ATB
Mickey...I agree we should not underestimate Prims assessment after that meeting. They intend to buy more shares as I understand it and they wouldn't be doing that if there was any doubt about the asset size.
Morning Mickey
I do think Prim should be taken more seriously!
Stout
Ant the only estimate has come from Prim 20m oz + , now I know many have not rated that estimate however Prim had a meeting with GH & CB after the recent AGM shortly before the Prim RNS , so maybe we should take more notice !!
Morningsun, Kempey,
Cheers for your thoughts. Makes sense. Oh to be a fly on the wall in some of the Ggp and NC meetings.
The issue or risk going forward for me is what if it’s not as big as everyone seems to think but NC are happy to mine. A good result yet not what some predicted.
Of coarse it could be bigger than we could have imagined.
Apple, that depends on the gold in ground value used. Without that these numbers have no meaning.
Correct me if I’m wrong (somebody will ;) )
I’m sure I heard/read that GGP would be able to use the camp at Havieron. If so then I’m sure we will see drilling at Scallywag sooner than if we were out there on our own. As normally we start drilling end of March/early April due to conditions
Anybody else?
Morning Urban...being an experienced mining company who sell their capability of using different mining techniques for different situations I think they will not rush this. I do believe they will start the process of planning for the mine in parallel to completing the resource assessment. The job adverts are an example of this. We may start to see access roads to the Processing plant developed even though they are still drilling to assess asset size. Wouldn't surprise me to see 10-12 rigs in the next phase. I think the decision to mine has already been made...Pre feasibility, determining resource size and all the other aspects of preparing to mine will happen in tandem. I think we will see lots of peripheral evidence this year before an announcement is made.
no apple. it will be more.
2 yrs ago....5moz was worked out to be 8p. AU value has at least maintained that ratio.
12p - 15p if 27oz
UR, from a pure management perspective NC doesn't need to know how big this is. In fact, strategically it is even better not to know it with regards to the extra 5% they are allowed to buy at market rate under the he JV agreement.
In the light of telfer needing ore the most sensible decision for NC is to go for the pre feas and production once they have proven up sufficient reserves to develop the mine. The rest of the development insight will come along the way.
Not the most desirable for GGP but that is how I would do it if I was NC.
What I cannot take into account, as I just don't know, is the impact of any take over defence strategies, as they may counter the above logic.
MS