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I'm with DGR on this, that is the way I have always read it, and it seems very clear to me.
MF11
DGR, so are you certain that all the current expenditure till the PFS is for NCs account? Thats a big call.
Apologies Paddy, - at my age everything takes more time.
As a matter of curious interest, all of our beer and prosecco needs last night were taken care of by Lord Grantham's son, ( of Downton Abbey fame.) Or " Carson " as the Bonneville son likes to call himself.
Tig
Tig
Jerry - I'm not sure it does need clarifying. Its there in black and white in the RNS.
Besides GH has plenty of new news to RNS
Paddy, you have uncovered something that is very significant and I would think that its important enough that it needs clarifying by GH. It could be material to GGP and the sp. But it can only be good news, which is nice.
Thanks Tig - lucky Joe had already pointed it out and I had responded.
Paddy
So it does, Sorry Paddy, I know we have been through this before but its good to to revisit now and then,Cheers for the responses folks
Newcrest must achieve the PFS to move on to Stage 4 whatever THEIR cost not GGP.
@@@Paddy. Forgive me for offering a factual correction,but am sure you mean PFS by late 2021
The breakaway Stag Gang met last night in The Rising Sun , and your name arose frequently. Twas a very good night with Fred, Dim, Ipad and Clairabella all feeling better off and now able to afford a drink.
Tig
Would we have to pay anything for an exploration decline?
Newcrest need to deliver the PFS to get stage 3 finished. If an exploration decline is needed to deliver a PFS and then FS, is that not newcrest's financial problem? Maybe it is different if this decline is then actually used for mining?
It is also worth noting that in each stage the spend from newcrest is a minimum spend.
Paddy, it's difficult to say.
My read is that the situation has overrun both the initial expectations as well as the paperwork for both parties. In a massively good way, of course.
Now I'm sure both sides are pretty busy atm, but It would not be a surprise if we get a RNS sometime with a complete renegotiation. Probably negating the remainder of the Farm-in and moving straight into a full JV. Most likely to be around, or soon after the MRE.
Pure specualtion, of course - but that's what I would work towards.
We're only liable for our percentage of overspend in Stage 4 Stu, the agreement is quite clear. Stage 3 states a MINIMUM spend of $25M and deliver a PFS....
Paddy my only thought is would we be responsible for their over spend for our proportion, anyone know the answer I have long felt NC are going to spend far in excess of the farm in requirements, surely a explo decline wasnt part of the thought process at the beginning of the JV when working out the 65m spend, or was it?
Any more enlightened than I that can answer this?
@WelshFalcon
"Besides, for Hav, they need to nurture the Farm-in and crystallise the JV agreement when this is possible. This needs to be done to maintain their first refusal on other GGP prospects."
I don't know if anyone else picked up on the slides on yesterday's presentation but the one with the timeline on it promised the PFS by "Late 2020" so roughly 12 months from now. But then if you look at the farm-in terms on the slide further down then you can see that delivering a PFS is part of the requirements of Stage 3.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/200916_Newcrest%20Delivering%20on%20Investment%20-%20Presentation.pdf
Does this mean that all the spend that Newcrest incur for the next 12 months is going to be part of Stage 3 ?? This would mean they could conceivably spend somewhere between $50-100m to achieve their next 20% of Havieron.
Any thoughts people - Paddy
WF - no probs, we're all good
GL l-a
Sorry you feel that way, no nasty was intended.
WF: "Basically pull back on your zoom lens and look at the bigger picture". No need to patronise me - I am a very experienced investor
The question posed comes from a narrow focus on GGP. What you need to do is take a mental leap from GGP to NCM and look at it all from their viewpoint!
NCM has much more than just Hav to consider, the capital requirements of all their other projects need to be considered and available funds allocated (Having been discussed/approved at board level). Hav is basically sorted. They have a path to 75% ownership at a very good ROI. They don't NEED to expend more at the moment, there are better uses for their capital - Cadia, Red Chris etc (even Solg!).
Besides, for Hav, they need to nurture the Farm-in and crystallise the JV agreement when this is possible. This needs to be done to maintain their first refusal on other GGP prospects.
Basically pull back on your zoom lens and look at the bigger picture.
Tom Hi,
Yes totally agree with you and IMO Hav alone will provide a very nice return for all share holders here and the current SP does not even reflect what we have. Anything else including Scally is another bonus. That's the way I am thinking and I am sure many will agree. In my view we are totally de-risked now, so all we have to do now is to look to the bright future and enjoy.
ATB
Tom :-))))
well said, I agree that many will be underestimating the value, size and importance of Hav.
Perhaps Newcrest wouldn't want to take over GGP, maybe they are more than happy to jv with us. So that we can prove up other areas then jv with them on better terms. It would strengthen their position against the likes of Rio and Barrick, giving all shareholders many happy christmasses.
Perhaps they have a better strategy to get what they want at cheapest possible price.
That is always a concern .
Business is business as they say.
It still makes me think why Newcrest didn't accumulate a load of shares ages ago in GGP. Ok they have the joint venture but from very early on in the drilling they would have been increasingly aware that Havieron was emerging as huge.
Even 8 months ago the SP was below 2p ie market cap £75m ish. They could have had the whole of Havieron (and the rest of GGP probably) at less than 15p I would guess. They will pay a lot more in the end but that's their choice