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Hi
Thanks all for the interesting discussions recently.
Wanted to add that when Ramelius bought Spectrum, Spectrum had Penny North, and the 355,500 oz was a maiden JORC estimate liable to upgrade (source from BusinessNews Western Australia):
"Spectrum has been busy over the summer drilling up its Penny West gold project with strong gold intersections being reported around the Penny West deposit and the Penny North prospect. Whilst a maiden JORC resource for Penny West of 799Mt grading 13.8g/t gold for 355,500 ounces was announced back in October, the latest drilling program is likely to lead to an upgrade to the Penny West resource.
Penny West produced some 85,000 ounces of gold from 121,000 tonnes grading a very significant 21.8g/t gold during 1991 and 1992. Previous miners left some good ounces at Penny West but what they failed to realise was that another very significant lode was lurking nearby that Spectrum discovered and named Penny North. One drill result at Penny North returned 4m at a stellar 105g/t gold from 151m and another returned 6m at 47.4g/t gold from 150m, with 2m at a huge 140g/t gold.
No doubt Ramelius was watching this activity and looking to time its run at Spectrum before any upgrade occurred. Spectrum had an implied value of around A$231 million based on Ramelius offer – 28 times its share price at the start of the previous year."
Thanks for that - interesting read. 16 petajoules of gas, an agreement signed in Dec 2019, for over 3.5 years for Telfer which is a mine in decline (no pun intended). And it's only 45km from Havieron.
https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/chevron-to-supply-newcrests-telfer-mine-with-gas-ng-b881410700z
Flashy - Telfer's main energy operational costs come from gas I believe.
See attached deal entered into at the end of last year.
ATB
I do wonder how much the crash in oil prices will benefit out operation too. What's the cost of energy on a site like this? 40% of total op costs? So substantial savings here too.
Thanks for clarifying that Chester - my apologies - got carried away on a Sunday morning in bed . . . fiddling with my iphone alas. Good luck for tomorrow and the week ahead. A lot more chatter on these boards now we are all stuck at home....
I would certainly be happy with that if it was as you say possible, or something along those lines. Would seem a fair proposal.
Thanks Gents
Good posts
Sometimes its healthy to disagree. Done in a respectful constructive manner. Which can benefit all other
less knowledgeable posters... like myself.
My respect to both Paddy and SK
Regards
Coach
I've been reading through the Ramelius takeover and perhaps that would be a good blueprint for what may happen at Havieron - a cash payment and an NCM share for "x" amount of GGP shares - this would give people exposure to any additional resources found at Havieron or if people didn't want to stay in the game they could just sell the NCM shares.
Not sure how it would work with NCM being listed on the ASX but would this be an option??
GLA - Paddy
Hi Paddy
Yes I did the calculation on 30% of your possible 13.5m ounces. My apologies, but as you say a bedrock value of $750m is not a bad place to start. I'm sure GH will get his $1b though...
Chester.
The other point I meant to mention was that the Penny West prospect is 150km from the Ramelius processing plant so we would have significantly less transportation costs as we are less than 50km from Telfer.
ATB - Paddy
Chester - I'm sure that comes out to $750 million but that would be a good starting point.
There was a recent take-over by Ramelius Resources in Australia of Spectrum Metals who had a high-grade resource at Penny West of 355,500 ozs of gold @ 13.8 g/t
https://smallcaps.com.au/ramelius-resources-spectrum-metals-takeover-declares-offer-unconditional/
'Ramelius is paying $208 million for Spectrum; the known contained gold at Spectrum’s Penny West project is 355,500oz. So, that $208 million is, per ounce, less than a quarter of the price of gold (with gold at $2,566/oz as Comex closed Tuesday) — although with the cost of mining it to come.'
These are Aussie $ figures but if you work it out with the Aussie $ worth 0.62 US$ then Ramelius paid over US$350 / oz.
I know it's higher grade than Havieron and it was a shallower depth but I think it puts a marker in the ground as to what our "high-grade" zone may be worth especially if SK's figures show our 'high-grade' area to be at 8.2 g/t.
ATB - Paddy
Hi Flashy500
Just over $1b is what GGP's 30% is worth if its 10m ounces @ $250 an ounce.
Chester.
SK, Paddy, thanks for an intelligent discussion with loads of information, which only goes to reinforce what a huge find GGP are sitting on .. thx again guys !
Nice succinct analysis Chester18! $250 dollars on a 10m ounce is nicely higher than a single piddly billion though! Just imagine a SP north of 0.30p....yikes. Looking forward to the next few days and the completion of stage 2. Stay safe.
too = two. Lol
SK rumbled.
I have got to hand it to you though. I have rarely seen too posts from the same person so diametrically opposed, but using what appears to be very plausible arguments. A master at work.
It's really difficult to be accurate about what price for "in the ground gold" NC will offer.
I've read on here that other golf finds around the world prices have ranged from $135 to $475 per ounce. On 13.m ounces that puts the range from $550m to $1.9b for our 30%.
From what we can glean so far, we have definitely past a minimum of 10m ounces and the approx average deal would be circa $250 per ounce which gives GH his $1b.
Let's just use that as an anchor to all our discussions.
Chester.
Hmm, looks like SK has had a change of heart. Maybe had a change of holding too, and maybe just maybe wanting back in.
SK - I don't want to discredit what you are saying and this is a genuine question but what has made you change you mind from the post you put up on the 11th March?
I'm not going to re-post it here - if people are bothered they can check you posting history themselves but you have drastically changed your tune since then.
ATB - Paddy
Fair comment mate - the only thing I would say is I've spoken to a few people who have said they are all really surprised at how well the results are holding up as the results keep coming through - they would have expected a lot more "holes" in the mineralisation and we're not seeing that happen. These are people with extensive geological experience but you are 100% right to error on the side of caution and then be happy with an upward revised estimates if that is what you prefer to do.
I've always been a glass-half full person (drives my wife mad) lol.
As for the 450m - that is the figure used by GGP for the length of the whole zone - if you want to break out just the high grade then surely you need to allow for both legs of the high grade - I guess people can make up their own minds.
ATB - Paddy
Oldtimer1963, and Numis have 5.5m across the board, high grade and low grade.
Hi Lenz and Paddy
I've been very liberal in my assessment. I've taken 600m depth the full way around the horseshoe which has not been proven.
Yes, higher up it looks to be more than 450m (minus the fault zone), however at the deeper end it appears to narrow significantly. I think the 450m to be a fair figure on current information to use across the whole depth and is the one used by GGP. I would rather have figures revised up in future than down.
Similarly, as for the future, I think it best to value what we have and to amend it than to make too many predictions now. I think paddy's theory about one big circle to be quite possible.
Ok SK,
I haven't had a chance to look at the drill intersections at depth but the most glaring thing that I can pick up is if you only intend using an average of 20 metres you need to use the length on both "legs" of the horseshoe and also the "U" bend at the bottom end. I have just quickly measured this on Google Earth through the centre of the purple zone and I get roughly 900m so straight away you can double your estimate.
I will need a lot more time later to look at the "average" widths.
ATB - Paddy
SK .. if that is your assessment of the high grade 5.78m Oz what as a guess do you think H holds in total ?
I will have a look at the drill intersections at depth to see if I can work it out a little better.
Thanks for your pointers.
ATB Paddy