The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Last week the EIA reported the eighth consecutive oil inventory increase. Yet, despite this OP - in the form of Brent LCO - has been making steady progress from a low near $57 to today’s $63+ . That’s worth around 20p as far as G’s sp is concerned.
https://invst.ly/oovgv
With G’s sprint to 225 and subsequent consolidation at around 211 it seems that G has settled to its new relationship with OP of around 3.35x and that OP is, once again, the main factor governing G’s sp.
https://invst.ly/oovmf
Bilgin apparently crossed the reporting threshold on the 13th - that was on the fourth trading day after G hit 225 on the 7th, by which time the sp was trading between 217 (open/high) and 210 (low)
If they were the reason G hit 225 then maybe they should have engaged Canaccord to do the job as they seem to know how to accumulate without provoking spikes. I wouldn't be too sure that Bilgin caused the spike although they must surely have been part of the general strengthening of the price.
Disappointingly both OP and G are back to the same levels they held on Nov 4th:
https://invst.ly/opb6o
The sp:OP ratio has fallen back to 3.31x and G appears to have lost its foothold on the '210' trend here: https://invst.ly/opbcz
Something of an anticlimax for now.
Here we go yet again. 200 for the 100th time. Been desperately trying to pull this down for 2 weeks even when oil and the market were up. This share price will never be allowed to grow
Yep - once G lost that foothold on the trend line it was almost certain to fall back. There's not much to support it above 192 now. Nice whilst it lasted. Will be interesting to see what happens as it approaches ex-div (3.75p) and with OP moves during the heating season. November's gains have been pretty much wiped out apart from around 12p on the 1st. Ratio to OP is back to 3.3x and falling. https://invst.ly/opizj
Hopefully some folks managed to get timing right. Always sell when this rises, without fail it falls back. Taken me ages to crack it
G down 2. 1%,and o.p down 1.6% - not sure what you two were expecting?
Well I was expecting G to do one of two things -
either good: retain its recent ratio to OP and remain tight to the trend line it recently captured.
or bad: collapse away from the trend, increasingly lose strength v OP and fall disproportionately compared to others.
It did the latter. Not unexpected but, equally, not what I had hoped as it does signal further weakness is now likely.
I think I recently mentioned that I'd be looking out for a top-up opportunity in the low 190's if they were revisited? I also bought a few around 207 in case the first scenario came to pass. With Bilgin's purchase and the recent run to 225 we've got a pretty good idea of G's likely range over the next four months - provided OP doesn't go TU of course.
Indeed, I don't really think we had a firm grip over 210p Boyo - I am more surprised with how resilient some of the others were today with the o.p looking so weak (e.g. gkp, pmo, bp, etc. all up), us and Tullow both over 2% off which is what I'd expect purely based on o.p.
Let's hope we don't get lost in the melee tomorrow if further o.p weakness is seen ('TU' as you so eloquently put it), a characteristic G double whammy so to speak.
Let's hope we see some material news in the next 4 months and blow that range out of the water, preferably good news btw - GL
Lost in the melee it is then
Bunks you didn’t think this would hold on to the gains? This is Genel I’ve been saying for weeks. Look at hawkey and others who have been in years it’s a waste of time
I certainly won't be reacting to short term volatility like today, those trading these swings risk getting smoked when (&if) material news is released.
I don't want to be out or in for tuppence when /if that happens, good luck though.
Completely agree with you Bunks- but the wait for material news is taking the p**s. Bina bawi has been years now, I waited for years as have you and others. We seem to be waiting for nothing but Sarta. Cash mounting up share price going nowhere, no deals, no bina bawi what’s the point
Indeed bunks - it'll be interesting to see what happens when G gets down to around 192
https://invst.ly/opw9-
because it would previously have been nearer to 180 at that point (3x $60). Meanwhile it continues to be about 13p up on September's pricing.
Hoping for 180 and sell around 220. Who knows but glad I went with my head this time as twice now I would have held on and lost all my profits. Can’t beat them join them. Fundamentals count for nothing anymore
Haven’t seen Lemmings. Hawkey reduced on the rise, Boyo, bunks are the only regulars left as most have given up
The cheek of it :-) Still here!
Sorry ocelot! I’m looking forward to getting back in
Lemming99 has been over on Metro Bank (MTRO), last post was bonfire night btw.
Leem - good luck nervously checking the RNS notification each morning down to 180p.... presonally i feel less stressed holding Vs the fomo ...
(Hey JL - Hope all is well with you..)
Short-term trading isn't for me, I tend to sell and immediately regret not being fully invested, but wish you all the best.
Been there for 20 months Bunks- missed out on nothing just lost profits time and time again. Told you this at around 215
sods law I'm afraid and I have missed out previously elsewhere.
Klassic is still lurking I reckon, there's a fair few of us still here - 20 months is a newbie.
Lose all gains in 3 days, buy at 180ish, wait for around 4 months for a rise,sell, rinse repeat. Been in this 4 years btw only the last year have I seen the light. Bina Bawi promised for years as well as M&A.... cash pile keeps rising share price keeps falling
Completely wrong Leem1 as you are nearly every time you come onto the board and then you wonder people have a go at you.....Give me strength....
Very very content with my Genel holding but have different priorities in life now for a number of reasons.
Genel acts as it should and is boring and dull....
A very very solid hold or buy if your not in and great dividend.
Sincere advice to you.....Sell up, don’t come on board and enjoy your life.
Hawkey
As I mentioned to JL earlier, the problem with any comparison of performance over time is that it can easily deceive. Which is a good reason to fact check stuff for yourself. The next chart - from August - is an attempt to illustrate how the respective oil cos have performed against OP recently. If I had set the start date on 20th August, for example, it would have entirely misrepresented GKP for the simple reason that GKP peaked on that date - so everything GKP did after that would have appeared much worse than is the case. Inevitably the choice of date can unfairly represent one of the constituents.
https://invst.ly/op-fj
The main takeaways for me, however, are that whilst OP has only fallen slightly over the entire period, RDS and DNO have suffered additional losses whilst GKP had a moment in the sun but has since fallen back to match OP the closest over the period. As it stands, the jury remains out on G - it has also had a moment in the sun and the question now is whether this will leave it with a residual gain - essential if it is to be revalued - or whether it will simply revert to its previous level characterised by 3xOP. It is of keen interest to those who are looking for a buy-back point. As I type the ratio has fallen to 3.2x which is good but not exceptional.